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MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 17:55 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weaver: AI technology across many industries will become commoditized, not a differentiator
“I think the technology in many, many industries is going to be commoditized... I think ultimately, I think most people are gonna have access to the same technology. So it'll be a tool and it'll help everybody, but it's not gonna be the thing, you know, it's no…”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 20:46 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Prediction Not checkable as stated
Weaver: VC-backed AI rollups in property management lack technological advantage
“I know there's been a bunch of AI native rollups launched by venture firms in property management. What tech, like what's their real advantage? Like, are they gonna have technology that's better than anyone else? I would say the answer is no.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 20:58 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors has replaced platform management 100% of the time recently
“Historically we've last, I don't know, four funds, we've replaced the management a hundred percent of time”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 35:24 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Partly supported
Graham Weaver: Alpine Investors' last four funds achieved or track toward 5x MOIC
“About 15 years ago, we set an objective to become the number one performing private equity fund in the world as measured by net MOIC, you know, the return on capital and our last since we set that goal, the four funds we invested after that have all done five …”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 1:57 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Weaver: Apex Scaled to $3B Revenue and $500M Earnings in Six Years
“Three billion of revenue, five hundred million of earnings. And we, I think importantly that, that happened without us putting in any additional money.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 28:38 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors has marked three consecutive funds at a 5x MOIC
“We have it marked at five X in our last three, and the fourth one is well on its way.”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 30:05 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Alpine's CEO-in-Training program was the most applied-to job at top business schools
“I think last year this might, this would be surprising probably to you, but Alpine was the number one most applied to job at Harvard Business School, Stanford Business School, Kellogg Business School, the Alpine CEO and training program.”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 57:34 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Median private equity firms will struggle to raise successor funds this decade
“I think the impact of all that is that the people kind of who were putting up, you know, median returns and felt like they had this, you know, God given right to raise their next fund and it was going to be bigger. I think that's not going to work out very wel…”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 1:31:51 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Weaver: Alpine's Fund I hit 40 cents before returning 95 cents
“You know, at one point that fund was marked at. 40 cents. We ended up returning like 95 cents.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 41:45 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors: Fund 1 generated no carry at all
“First of all, fund one generated no carry at all. And then fund two, we needed to sell. It was really the very last business in that fund that we sold until, until we got paid.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 44:18 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors changes management in approximately 80% of add-on acquisitions
“Probably 80% of the time in the add on investments were changing management.”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 35:44 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Partly supported
Alpine's Apex HVAC platform reached $500 million EBITDA on $50 million equity
“The business we initially bought was forty million, I think, of revenue, and eight of EBITDA, this year it'll do three billion of revenue. We haven't put any more equity in, They've just been accumulating these small little businesses. So the business has gone…”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 39:37 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors pays 13x multiples today for companies it bought at 5x
“I don't care what anyone says, there was multiple expansion, you know, I mean, we were buying the same companies in 1994 at five times that we're paying 13 times for now and excited about to do so.”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 1:31:07 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Partly supported
Weaver: Talking activates more brain regions than writing or thinking
“You actually activate more of your brain when you talk than when you think or write. So thinking operates the least activates the least amount of your brain. Writing is a little bit better, but talking activates like a whole, whole different region of your bra…”
Graham Weaver Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 40:20 How to break out of autopilot and create the life you want | Graham Weaver (Stanford GSB professor)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most PE firms market that they partner with existing management teams
“If you go and look at private equity, go on the website, 95% of them have on the very first page. We're great partners for continuing management teams.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 27:44 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine retains roughly 80% of its CEO-in-Training hires long term
“So we probably lose about 10% really quickly because they worked in consulting. They thought they wanted to be a CEO. It turns out it's really hard to be a CEO. Maybe not for them. And then probably another 10% who either along the way decide it's not for them…”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 46:44 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine's excess returns fund some university LPs' entire annual financial aid budgets
“So the delta between our performance and median at some of our investors is paying for all the financial aid that they're going to do every year, paying for buildings, paying for scholarships.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 51:28 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weaver: Alpine's First Fund Lost Money and Drained My Savings
“And then with Alpine, I mean, our first fund lost money, drained my savings account. Then we started calling our way back, got smacked by the Great Recession, drained my savings account again.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 14:22 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Supported
Weaver: Alpine managed only $200M to $400M after 14 years
“We were 14 years in. I want to say managing maybe two or three, three or four hundred million dollars, something like that.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 42:23 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
MY FIRST MILLION Assertion Supported
Weaver: Alpine has acquired 800 companies over 31 years in private equity
“We've bought 800 companies. I've been doing, I've been in private equity, 31 years.”
Graham Weaver Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 1:00:26 We asked a $18.9B Investor how to survive the AI bubble
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine Investors places 100 to 150 MBAs into portfolio company leadership annually
“If I add up all those, I mean, we're putting probably somewhere between a hundred and a 150 MBAs into these companies per year.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 32:02 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alpine has completed over 500 executive coaching engagements in six years
“So we have, 23 coaches that are in the Alpine ecosystem. And I think we've done over 500 coaching engagements over the last five or six years.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 39:05 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Contradicted
Morgan Stanley was the sole firm recruiting undergrads into PE in 1994
“And I got recruited from Morgan Stanley, which had an in-house investment bank, and to my knowledge, they were the only ones that recruited in 1994 directly into private equity.”
Graham Weaver May 27, 2025 ▶ 15:27 How Graham Weaver Turns Recent Grads Into CEOs · Invest Like The Best
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weaver: About half of Stanford student meetings ask what to do with life
“About half of all the times I meet with students, that's the question they ask.”
Graham Weaver Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 6:12 How to break out of autopilot and create the life you want | Graham Weaver (Stanford GSB professor)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weaver's college newspaper delivery business had negative COGS subsidized by NYT
“I started this little newspaper delivery business, which was actually the most genius business ever because we had the New York Times and the USA Today, and then our daily paper that Princetonian, but the New York Times would actually pay us per subscription. …”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 10:54 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Intermediaries brought Alpine virtually zero deals lacking an existing management team
“All of a sudden we're looking at all the deals that are coming into us through our intermediaries and basically zero of them are pitched to Us with no management team.”
Graham Weaver Jun 10, 2024 ▶ 42:29 Graham Weaver – People-Driven Private Equity at Alpine (EP.391)
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