The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Graham Allison: Trump will declare Iran conflict over before China trip
“So my Inclination, again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 11:12 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Allison: Patriot missile defense systems intended for Ukraine were redirected to the Middle East
“All the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now In the Middle East.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 15:28 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Allison: Tencent AI rivals GPT-4 in science but fails on political queries
“Tencent's AI machine is a pretty good competitor for GPT-IV in the science or math, but if you ask a question about, you know how do freedom-centered societies perform, it can't answer that question, because the thought of Xi Jinping says this.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 23:46 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
a16z Assertion Supported
Allison: 12 of 16 historical power transitions have resulted in war
“I find 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. In 12 of the cases, the outcome was war. In four of the cases, the outcome was not war.”
Graham Allison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:51 a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
a16z Assertion Supported
Allison: Measured by PPP, China is the world's largest economy
“International economies, and I believe the best yardstick is purchasing power parity, which is also the yardstick that CIA and IMF think is the best yardstick. By that yardstick, China is currently the largest economy in the world.”
Graham Allison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:30 a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
a16z Assertion Supported
Allison: China uses trade leverage like banana imports to coerce foreign governments
“The Chinese Not only have economic power, but they exercise economic power. So when the Philippines behaves in a way they don't like, they say, I think your bananas that you're importing to China may be suspect. So they just leave them on the dock till they ro…”
Graham Allison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:23 a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Allison: 12 of 16 historic rising-vs-ruling power rivalries ended in war
“In the book I look at the last 500 years, there's 16 times we've seen a rapidly rising power threaten a colossal ruling power. Think of Germany's rise, beginning of the 20th century, and the challenge to Great Britain, that became World War I. So most often, o…”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 4:42 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Allison: Chinese development banks hold four times the capital of World Bank
“So now, for development loans, the Chinese development banks, if you take the group together, including AAAB, have four times the capital of the World Bank.”
Graham Allison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:10 a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Graham Allison: China's economy is 25% larger than US by PPP
“Today, by pursuing power parity, it's 25% larger.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 34:43 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Graham Allison: China's GDP grew from 10% to 75% of US GDP
“China was, at the beginning of the century, 10% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's three quarters of the U.S. GDP.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 9:07 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Allison: China is the primary trading partner and investor across Asia
“If you go around the ASEAN countries, or you go around Northeast Asia, the principal buyer, the principal seller, the principal investor is China.”
Graham Allison Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:13 a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Allison: Natural gas supplies about half of Taiwan's electricity
“About half of their electricity comes from their natural gas”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 15:11 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Graham Allison: China accounts for over half world's factory robots
“More than half of the working, the factory worker robots in the world are in China.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 38:17 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Allison: 1960s textbook falsely claimed Soviet economy would overtake US by 1970s
“Samuelson was the, you know, basically for economics, it says, by the seventies, the Soviet Union will have overtaken the US economy.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 22:23 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
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