The Ledger, every show
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.
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every show 44 of 44
Friedberg: Social Security and state defaults will force bailouts by 2032
“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 20 32. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be abl…”
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
Friedberg: Democratic wins in 2028 will trigger federal pension bailouts
“If you end up with a Democrat controlled house and a Democrat president, In 20, 28, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments”
Friedberg predicts the Russia-Ukraine war will settle in 2026
“Russia, Ukraine. I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors, but I do think it's going to settle out this year, and it's going to bring a bit mor…”
Friedberg: Investigations will uncover trillions in fraudulent government spending by 2026
“I think that's gonna be the great uncovering of twenty-twenty-six is we're gonna see on the order of trillions of dollars.”
Friedberg: AI models will eventually gain legal privilege and professional certification
“And it sounds crazy today, but I guarantee if you put it on Polymarket, there will be a date when this happens.”
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
Friedberg: Mobile handsets will no longer exist in ten years
“I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years. I don't think we're going to have this, like, phone in our pocket that we're like, Pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is goi…”
Friedberg: 100% chance existing fusion portfolio yields low-cost power in 20 years
“I think there's a hundred percent chance that the portfolio of 70 fusion companies that exist today that are pursuing this technology will succeed. And that we will get low cost power in the next 20 years at scale, right?”
Friedberg predicts US will see 70% tax rates on wealthiest people
“I still think I still think we'll end up seeing 70% tax rates on the wealthiest people.”
Friedberg: US federal tax rates on the wealthiest will exceed 60%
“I don't see a world where we don't have over 60% tax rates on the wealthiest people in this country at a federal level.”
Friedberg predicts peace deal trading Ukrainian territory for Russian gas
“And so my guess is huge amount of money from the West and EU going into Ukraine. Ukraine agrees to let Putin keep some regions, some assets, Putin agrees to remove himself from certain regions and give up certain assets. Sanctions are partially lifted, but the…”
Friedberg: Top US marginal tax rate will reach 70% to 80%
“You're gonna see some of these wealth taxes get chased down. You're gonna see the top marginal tax rate go up 70, 80%.”
Friedberg: 2021 private unicorn index will surpass $46T in 20-30 years
“But the reality is the index of companies today, I would be willing to bet 20 to 30 years from now is worth more than the 46 trillion dollar of all the public companies.”
Friedberg predicts Ro Khanna will be HUD Secretary under President AOC
“I think he'll likely end up being secretary of housing and urban development. If AOC is elected president.”
Friedberg: Space systems will replace all RTK and GPS in next decade
“I just think the space thing is, is likely the path that's gonna replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.”
Friedberg: Damaged Qatari fertilizer plant will take 3-5 years to repair
“That facility got damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of urea in the world. That's now going to be incapacitated for three to five years.”
Friedberg: Anthropic will eventually reach a $1.5 trillion market cap
“I think Anthropic is a trillion five market cap at the end of the day. Unless this blows them up.”
Friedberg: Software market cap will be 4x to 10x higher in 5 years
“I think the value creation potential in front of us is so significant that I would say that you could probably take the sum of the market cap of all the software companies today and have a pretty good bet that everything will be four to 10 X higher five years …”
Friedberg: California faces a trillion-dollar pension fiscal cliff
“California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations.”
Friedberg: First cellular rejuvenation drug approval is 7 to 12 years away
“Just knowing the clinical path there, I would say we're probably somewhere between seven and 12 years.”
Friedberg: Human trials for stem cell age reversal will begin within years
“I think that we should expect over the next couple of years, these sorts of trials to kind of begin to see if we can see similar results.”
Friedberg: AI revolution will reduce workweek to under 30 hours
“And now I think the next phase is we're going to end up in less than 30 hours a week with people making more money and having more abundance for every dollar that they earn with respect to what they can purchase and the lives they can live.”
Friedberg: US Social Security will be functionally bankrupt by 2032
“We have until 2032 when social security will be functionally bankrupt and everyone's going to get overtaxed and kids are going to end up having to pay through inflation for the benefits of the retirees of the last generation.”
Friedberg: US power grid will reach 2 terawatts over 15 years versus China's 8
“Meanwhile, right now, China is making three terawatts, and they're scaling up to make eight. We are at one going to two over the next 15 years.”
Friedberg: China will build domestic EUV chip capacity regardless of bans
“I think that they're going to invest and build their own EUV and chip manufacturing capacity either way.”
Friedberg: Skin-cell IVF will allow people to produce offspring at any age
“So in the next couple of years, there's, you know, there's a few little technical breakthroughs that are happening right now that will enable this, where fertility clinics may end up just taking a little bit of your skin cell, creating stem cells, creating egg…”
Friedberg: Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt in 2032
“Today, the Social Security Trust Fund has 2.7 trillion dollar balance, and based on the outflows and inflows, it's going to go bankrupt in 2032.”
Friedberg: Social Security will be functionally bankrupt in eight years
“Social Security's functionally going to be bankrupt in eight years.”
Friedberg: China will have 100,000 flying cars in service by 2030
“The expectation is that by 2030, there'll be a 100,000 flying cars moving people around in China.”
David Friedberg predicts non-developers will build and deploy software via chat within five years
“And in five years, just like we're all going to, and we're all using a chat like interfaces more frequently. You go to your chat like interface and eventually you realize you can ask it to build some tool for you that does something. And it renders the tool, a…”
Friedberg: China to reach 3-4x US electricity capacity in 10 years
“In 10 years, we're going to be looking across the water at, you know, a competitive country that has three X, four X, the electricity production capacity of our country.”
Friedberg predicts US deficit will increase under both Trump and Harris
“Regardless of who gets elected here, they've both kind of shown that the deficit will increase, not decrease under their presidency.”
Friedberg: Up to 1M real estate agents could exit industry over time
“Maybe half of them won't be able to make enough money in this new, you know, fee regime that it'll no longer be an attractive proposition to be a real estate agent for maybe half a million to a million people over time that are agents today.”
Friedberg: Apple will reach $100B in Vision Pro sales within five years
“I think they're going to sell a hundred billion dollars of Apple vision pros, not this version, but this version plus the next version probably over the next. I would guess for them to get to a hundred billion in sales, it'll take them less than five years.”
Friedberg: 90% to 95% chance scalable fusion exists within two decades
“I would say there's probably a 90 plus percent chance or 95% chance that we will have scalable fusion energy in the next decade or two”
Friedberg predicts the federal government will bail out underfunded private pensions
“A lot of the private pensions that are going to need to get bailed out with the same federal money, because they're not going to let those things go bankrupt. And that's another trillion plus of liabilities.”
Friedberg predicts fusion production demos in 2030s, grid scale in 2040s
“My estimate is that we will see production demonstration of fusion in the 20 thirties. So call it eight years from now plus, and then you'll see grid scale scale up in the 20 forties.”
Friedberg: Total capital managed in venture funds has peaked and will decline
“We're probably at peak capital being managed in venture funds right now, and will likely decline for the next decade.”
Friedberg predicts store-bought milk will be lab-grown within 15 years
“In the next 10 to 15 years, most of the milk you buy at the store will be Identical to cow's milk. Same protein composition.”
Friedberg: China's nuclear expansion will drop industrial energy costs below 5 cents
“And so as China builds out a 140 nuclear plants here over the next two to three decades, they're going to see their energy cost decline from about nine cents for industrial use, potentially, you know, into the sub five cent per kilowatt hour range, which makes…”
Friedberg predicts Andreessen Horowitz will be the first VC firm to IPO
“It's very likely that you'll see Andreessen be the first”
David Friedberg predicts commercial-scale cell-based meat within five to ten years
“Cell-based meat will be available at a commercial scale within the next five to 10 years.”
Friedberg: Personal room replicators will exist within 100 to 120 years
“In a hundred to a 120 years from now, I do think we'll all have a replicator in our room. That replicator will make all the things we want to make nearly instantaneously with very low energy and very low cost.”
Friedberg predicts Stripe will become the most valuable private company
“That's gonna be the most valuable, valuable company. That's private right now.”
Friedberg: Quantum computers won't crack RSA-2048 encryption before 2040
“The estimate currently by some researchers is that this there's a less than five percent chance this happens before the year 2040. So we're talking somewhere between the year 2040 and the 2060. When we get a quantum computer that has enough logical qubits to b…”