The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Warren Buffett generated zero alpha after Regulation FD was enacted
“His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 26:35 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts global software TAM will shrink to $500 billion
“I, I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude, and instead of fighting over five trillion, I think we'll be fighting over Five hundred billion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 1:09:38 DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 27:14 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
ALL-IN Disclosure
Palihapitiya: Human rights abuses against Uyghurs are below his line of concern
“Nobody cares about what's happening to the weakers. Okay. You bring it up because you really care. The rest of us don't care. I'm just telling you a very hard, I'm telling you a very hard, ugly truth. Okay. Of all the things that I care about. Yes, it is below…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 15:00 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts neither Biden nor Trump will run for president in 2024
“Zero and zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 23, 2021 ▶ 32:48 E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: It's 'pretty clear' COVID-19 leaked from the Wuhan lab
“It's pretty clear that this was something that leaked out of that lab.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 39:08 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Robinhood was insolvent and lacked capital during GameStop halt
“This company was insolvent. They did not have the capital requirements to post the margin that was being asked of them by their partners.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 30, 2021 ▶ 3:29 E19: Robinhood's GameStop decision: Why did it happen and how can it be prevented in the future?
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Donald Trump will go to jail
“Yes.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 13:47 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: The Eurozone will collapse and Japan is finished
“The Eurozone is going to collapse. Okay. Japan is finished.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 59:05 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Cultural shifts from immigration worsened UK, Germany, and France
“You can look at the UK and you can look at Germany and you can look at France and you have to ask yourself is the cultural deviation from where they were, has it been better? Or worse for those countries. And I think in general, it has been worse.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:11:50 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 8, 2026 ▶ 24:46 Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Palo Alto Networks can penetrate and manipulate every AI model
“What I will tell you is, I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to say this, but a very good, probably the best cybersecurity company in the world, run by one of the very best CEOs in the world. Who may or may not be speaking at liquidity would tell you that they ha…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2026 ▶ 26:16 OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Chamath: Tesla and SpaceX have a 99.999% chance of merging
“Sorry. Let me be clear. 99.999%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 2:11 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Trump is the most consistent anti-war president in modern history
“I think Trump is and has been the most consistent anti-war president of modern history.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 55:56 SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
WTF Opinion
Palihapitiya: Donald Trump is the most capable political athlete ever seen
“He, Donald Trump, is the most effective and capable political athlete we have ever seen.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 28:20 Pain, Power & The Game Nobody Wins | Chamath Palihapitiya x Nikhil Kamath | People by WTF · Nikhil Kamath
ALL-IN Insight
Chamath: Insider trading in prediction markets benefits society by revealing truth faster
“The use of inside information gets to the truth faster. And I think that has value, especially if it uncovers corruption or misdeeds. And so if people make money along the way, and that's the incentive that it takes for folks to work around what would otherwis…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 27:47 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Energy providers will demand equity stakes in AI companies as power becomes the key constraint
“Energy will be the gating item beyond a shadow of a doubt. And so if you control electrons, any form of electrons, hydrocarbon to electron, electron to electron, photon to electron, doesn't matter. You will then be in a position to start asking for equity, ups…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 52:58 Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
ALL-IN Opinion
Palihapitiya advises retail investors to avoid investing in his new SPAC
“And what my honest advice is avoid Maybe not all SPACs, but definitely my SPAC, just avoid it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 26:34 Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: US presidents should be allowed to remove Federal Reserve governors
“I think it's very reasonable to say that any sitting president should be allowed to remove a Fed governor if he believes it's not aligned with the wishes of the electorate and the voters and the plan that was voted in.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 13:42 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Only GPs building fee-generating businesses will make real VC money
“But if you're trying to crush it, I think the only people that will really make money in venture capital are the GPs. Building a fee generating business around it.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:10:18 AI Psychosis, America's Broken Social Fabric, Trump Takes Over DC Police, Is VC Broken?
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google's Veo 3 video model will destroy Hollywood within a year
“Gemini family of models, which just absolutely kick ass like VO three, which we haven't really spoke about is going to destroy Hollywood. Like in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 31:22 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Shell companies route Nvidia GPUs into China to bypass controls
“I think what you will find is a whole raft of companies that were stood up to buy these Nvidia GPUs to essentially act as a way station for China.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 19, 2025 ▶ 16:34 Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Donald Trump did not incite much on January 6th
“In that moment, I thought what happened was really terrible. And then since then, I've got to know the person and I don't think that he actually incited much of anything. That's my belief.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 1:05:56 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
COVID vaccines were modestly effective and designed to manipulate DNA
“We caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs. They were called vaccines. We found out that they were modestly effective at best, and then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our DNA, and we just don't know…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 31, 2024 ▶ 31:27 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Chamath: Nvidia will likely compete directly with GCP, AWS, and Azure
“So I think it's likely that Nvidia goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2024 ▶ 37:05 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts AI foundational models will become free with zero economic value
“I think foundational models will have no economic value. I think that they will be an incredibly powerful part of the substrate and they will be broadly available and entirely free.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 42:15 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath calls elite American universities "woke madrasas" teaching "virulent poison"
“Our leading educational institutions have really become woke madrasas. They are inculcating kids with just some virulent poison.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 30:13 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Palihapitiya: Welfare incentivized Black women $92,000 to remain unmarried
“In, you know, black families as an example, the economic incentive to not get married on you know, today dollar adjusted basis was like, 92,000 to a black woman to not get married and have a child.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2023 ▶ 18:45 All-In Summit: "Luxury Beliefs are Status Symbols" with Rob Henderson
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: 60% of unicorns will go to zero, yielding 1.1x overall return
“I think 60% go to zero. Of the remaining 40%, half of them probably return money. And then of the remaining half, half of those maybe get one and a half X. And then you get a geometric distribution from there, which means the blended return of that entire stre…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 1, 2023 ▶ 1:23:26 E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: COVID-19 vaccine push was a Big Pharma revenue grab
“It was a revenue grab by big pharma plastered with non-scientific thinking from a bunch of people who should have known better.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 10, 2023 ▶ 6:11 E132: SEC goes after crypto giants, Sequoia splits, LIV/PGA, Messi's deal + LIVE Q&A!
ALL-IN Opinion
Palihapitiya: Software developers no longer exercise good judgment
“I'm going to say something controversial. I don't think developers anymore have good judgment. Developers get to the answer or they don't get to the answer.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 20:23 E124: AutoGPT's massive potential and risk, AI regulation, Bob Lee/SF update
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: $600B to $700B of tech VC capital will be destroyed
“About five hundred billion dollars of that trillion from 1819, 20, 21 and 22 is going to be destroyed. We haven't even started to see that yet, right? And then if you factor in another hundred billion or so from older vintages, we're talking about a 600 or 700…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 12, 2022 ▶ 1:14:40 E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts up to $750B in venture capital value destruction
“Over these next 10 years, when maybe you have 500 to three quarters of a trillion dollars of value destruction, And it's because you didn't think about portfolio construction properly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 1:04:40 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
ALL-IN Assertion Open · timeframe May 2022
Chamath: Only 22 of 1,276 billion-dollar funds returned over 2.3x capital
“Okay, so now of those 1276 private equity funds, or growth funds, or crossover funds, how many do you think have actually managed to return more than 2.3 times the money? 22 of them.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2022 ▶ 38:06 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Dangerous authoritarianism tends to come from the political left
“The scary authoritarianism, as we talked about in previous pods, tends to come from the left.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 19, 2022 ▶ 22:48 E68: Trudeau invokes emergency powers, Bitcoin vs. government, Tiger Global's new strategy and more
ALL-IN Opinion
Palihapitiya: Advocating foreign human rights while ignoring domestic issues is deplorable
“I think it's a luxury belief. And the reason I think it's a luxury belief is we don't do enough domestically to actually express that view in real tangible ways. So until we actually clean up our own house, The idea that we step outside of our borders with, yo…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 16:31 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Big Tech will hit peak market cap by 2023
“I think that this is sort of peak big tech market cap is probably within the next year or two.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 29:16 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Elizabeth Warren is an authoritarian who lacks economic knowledge
“I think Senator Karen is the obvious choice for me. Kind of proved that she doesn't really know much about economics is, you know, kind of mean and just basically wants to, you know, is a moral absolutist authoritarian just on the left.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 1:36:17 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: The Chinese Communist Party is highly competent at execution
“I think the CCP is actually pretty good at what they do. We may not agree with them, but I think they're pretty competent.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 56:58 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Larry Page is absent and irrelevant to Google's future
“If I had to just categorize them, I would say Larry is absent and is sitting on a hundred billion dollar fortune with no idea what to do. I think. Yeah. I mean, he's just absent. So, he's irrelevant. I don't think anybody knows what the fuck he looks like. I m…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 28, 2021 ▶ 1:22:59 E44: USA's Afghanistan embarrassment, China's new algo laws, future of robots + Italy recap!
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: China's central planners are much smarter than American politicians
“China's central planners are frankly just much, much smarter than ours.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 55:20 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chamath: The four major tech monopolies will be broken up by 2030
“And if I was a betting man, end of decade, these four monopolies will not exist.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 1, 2021 ▶ 1:14:37 E31: Post-vaccination virtue signaling, pandemic lessons, immigration, Caitlyn Jenner for CA & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Robinhood is the Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns of 2021
“This is the, they are the Lehman brothers or Bear Stearns of 2008 to me.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 30, 2021 ▶ 19:00 E19: Robinhood's GameStop decision: Why did it happen and how can it be prevented in the future?
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Arbitrary tech platform bans are as dangerous as the Capitol attack
“I know that you may think banning him from Twitter is so much lower than this attack on the capital, and I'm telling you it's not, because the slippery slope of event, event number one is so obvious. The prosecution of that is so obvious. The law is so complet…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 1:15:22 E17: Big Tech bans Trump, ramifications for the First Amendment & the open Internet
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath: Core Trump supporters live in 10 economically irrelevant states
“And those twenty million people are You know, sad to say concentrated in about 10 states that don't functionally matter economically or otherwise.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 28:50 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Chamath says Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue are stupid candidates
“Kelly Loftner's a moron. She's an idiot. David Perdue's a good old boy. He's an idiot. They're just stupid. This actually speaks to a bigger problem, which is the Republicans could do so much better if they could actually find younger, more vibrant, intelligen…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2021 ▶ 52:30 E16: Reflecting on the riots at the US Capitol, plus: Georgia runoffs, vaccine distribution & more
ALL-IN Opinion
Palihapitiya: AGI Has Basically Been Here Since Early 2026
“I think AGI has basically been here since the beginning of the year. There are models that are incredibly performant inside of the closed frontier lab companies.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 2:48 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: School AI bans will trap progressive city students in poverty
“And I think what it will do is it is a self-imposed form of modern segregation. And it is going to completely push an entire generation of kids in these cities that are subject to these rules into poverty, and it will keep them there. And so in as much, I thin…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 1:08:33 GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
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