The Ledger, every show

“If we keep the chip ban in place, here's my biggest concern. I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan.”

“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”

“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”

“I said, I would take everything in your portfolio that received a valuation over the last two years, over five hundred million dollars, and I'd mark it down by 50%. What do you mean? And I said, well, if I look at the average gross stock in the NASDAQ, it's do…”

“GLM 5.2 has watermarks from mythos all over it, right? So we know they were distilling, etc.”

“It's the largest change to our social contract since 1935 and social security.”

“OpenAI has not blown away their numbers. Google has not blown away their numbers. Like numbers have been good, but the fundamental driver of outperformance in terms of offtake of AI revenues has been Anthropic, which is the fastest growing company in the histo…”

“A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment.”

“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”

“If it's series A, you had a couple million in revenue, and then series B, I don't know, you had twenty million in revenue. Shit, you would have a line out the door of people who wanted to do that deal. There's a, you wouldn't have a single taker today. Not a s…”

“Bernie Sanders calling for a moratorium, shutting out all data centers. We'd have negative GDP growth this year. The stock market would be down 15 to 20%. Unemployment would be on the rise.”

“We're seeing companies like Anthropic at five or six billion dollars of revenue in a single month, which is extraordinary.”

“I said, listen, they're all down and 90% of them deserve to be down.”

“He said, Brad, I'm going to three X the company and our headcount may not grow or only grow a little bit. And I said, how? He said, because I'm going to have agents who are reporting to me. I'm not going to have employees who are.”

“My opinion, and I think you share this, is China already has frontier AI. Huawei is already there. We have demonstrable evidence of that. And their models are already there. Arguably, their open source models might even be in front of the United States at this…”

“Are we better off selling to those countries, those companies, keeping companies like ByteDance and Tencent, et cetera, in the CUDA ecosystem, rather than allowing all of that data, all of those profits to flow right into the Huawei ecosystem and benefit the C…”

“I think the distraction that we can keep China away from frontier level AI, that will be a losing strategy in my mind.”

“I always get a, you know, a laugh out of the fact that finally in 2025, the first time we've actually had competition for Google, like very clear that competition is coming to all those categories, and now we get around to talking about breaking up their searc…”

“I think Tranium is not even competitive with Hopper, let alone with where Blackwell is today.”

“SEO is dead. And just, you know, those are the free links. That was the core product that used to attract everybody to Google. And the idea that SEO is basically now gone is pretty, pretty.”

“China is going to have frontier AI and almost all of the things we do to try to slow them down and stop them are backfiring on the United States.”

“And it almost guarantees a Huawei level belt and road initiative around the world. And the world's going to run on Huawei AI chips, which gives them then the demand That they need to build a frontier AI chip.”

“The message is very clear that I think there's going to be a downsizing of the federal government to the tune of, let's call it, 40 or 50%.”

“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”

“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”

“Lots of people talk about the zombie corns, right? We have a thousand companies that are, that were unicorns. A lot of those will never get back there. I've said, 80% of those companies will never get back there.”

“We need to get back to a place where, you know, Microsoft and Google can go buy, you know, a company that's de minimis relative to their size. You know, Amazon can buy vacuum cleaner company, you know, iRobot without, you know phalanxes of lawyers and having t…”

“I really don't like the stay private forever idea. It works for some companies where you have an Elon Musk running SpaceX, and you know, the intrinsic motivation and experience will lead to a good outcome. It doesn't work well for 3050, bless you, of the other…”

“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”

“I think it's going to be very difficult for new entrants to be venture backed because to, you know, open AI will continue to get funding because they have this incredible team. They have a hundred million people using the product and paying them for the produc…”

“If I was Sam Altman running OpenAI, I think I might rename the company ChatGPT and just focused on the multi-trillion dollar opportunity to replace Google, right? Because I think winning at both, beating Google at consumer and beating Microsoft at enterprise y…”

“I think this is going to be a bit of a chat GPT moment for full self-driving, but what it really, it just reminded me of the magic of this moment.”

“Tesla rebuilding their models, For how they do self-driving around imitation learning and all this interesting stuff going on over there. Like, you know, I think they probably made more progress in the last 12 months than in the last seven years.”

“Your share likely goes down over time because you have people like ChatGPT you have to compete with. But worse yet, your margin on each of those queries goes down over time. I don't know what it nets out at, 50%, 60%. Now, mind you, for perplexity or co-pilot …”

“Frank Slootman said to me, probably in 20, 21, most software companies in Silicon Valley are walking dead and they don't even know it.”

“All I'm saying is the idea that Google can replicate a 99% monopoly and take all of that pool of profits with it into this new world after letting ChatGPT become the verb, at least at the start, for what this new world is. It just, you know, that to me is almo…”

“If you're a founder and you want to compete in this, you know, in the model game, you know, and you don't have their backing, there is no, no chance.”

“What he did at Twitter, laying off 75% of the people that, you know, I saw somebody tweet the other day, Bill they said, I guess Twitter isn't going to fall over. Right? I mean, the platform is as vibrant and the product development cycle is vibrant as it's ev…”

“They suspect that they'll see a 90% reduction in content moderators over the course of the next year because that work can be more efficiently and better done by AI.”

“I think this is gonna be the most, ah, disruptive moment in labor markets in the history of modern capitalism. Over the course of the next five years.”

“Elon, with the work that he's done at Twitter, right, they reduced headcount by 70, 80%. And the product release cycle is probably gone up by at least 70%, right? It's incredible what they have in the pipeline there, and the fact that they're doing this with, …”

“I don't see an American president, frankly, going to war, nor would I want them to go to war over Taiwan, but I think it's in all of our interests to maintain that status quo”

“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”

“100%. This has been the greatest grift in the history of Silicon Valley for sure.”

“Certainly if you look at the hundreds of startups in VC land over the course of the last several years 99% of them are probably garbage and will fail and won't work.”

“Deploying a ten billion dollar fund or, God forbid, a fifty billion or a hundred billion dollar fund like Masa tried to do, right? You already know you will not generate alpha in that. You are getting the beta of the global tech industry when you're investing …”

“I think diversification in many ways is the greatest myth perpetrated on the investing public. The idea that risk mitigation is the equivalent of diversification.”

“Our first fund VC won hell. I couldn't even raise it. I was 20 or 25% of the fund. And I put, we put over 30% of that fund in Snowflake at a point in time that the world thought we were crazy.”