The Ledger, every show

“What happens if we get super powerful AI and China doesn't? What are they going to do? The optimal thing would be to just bomb TSMC out of existence, because suddenly that becomes optimal, even with all the costs that that does, and then what?”

“Even if we have this blow up, the AI is not going away. It's not gonna stop improving. It's going to keep sort of progressing, and in a way that we look back on the dot-com era, or we look back on the railroad era, or we look back on whatever bubbles through h…”

“TSMC, Decreased their rate of growth in twenty-twenty-three and twenty-twenty-four and twenty-twenty-five. So, like, we're, our shortage of compute is going to get worse in the next few years.”

“So, today when we say there's not enough compute, it's not like all the money that the companies are putting in today manifests in compute tomorrow. No, it all manifests in compute in twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-twenty-nine.”

“The scarcity is what ultimately saved Intel. And I expect at some point in the year that they're going to announce like some major partner for the first time. It's going to be a big deal, but it was ultimately TSMC brought it on themselves.”

“Their ultimate competitors are the hyperscalers, particularly Google and Amazon. So Google and Amazon aren't just building their own chips, but they're also looking to sell those chips externally.”

“The longer we have enough power, the more time Amazon has to make Trinium better. The more time Google has to make TPUs competitive from an efficiency standpoint. And if we get in a world where, this is a world where those margins seem very hard to sustain.”

“If AI is what it is, The people with guns are going to want to have a say. Whether that be domestically, whether that be internationally, that might be in the context of the U.S. Government just taking it, trying to kill your company because they feel you're n…”

“I think we're looking at a massive short, shortness in chips in 20, 29 or so.”

“And in that world, I think crypto as an identifier of Authenticity is going to be more and more important. Like at the end of the day, I want the original. I don't want a reproduction.”

“What is interesting is it was written a lot about as this sort of Steve jobs initiative and, you know, I'm sure he okayed it, but he had basically no involvement at all. Tim cook was very heavily involved.”

“Their sort of upheaval and downfall will come not from someone being in a garage alone. It will come from someone being in a garage who latches onto the next paradigm shift that makes it impossible for, you know, the powers that be to compete.”

“The long run for TV, for example, the long run is likely that there's The traditional bundle becomes basically all about sports because sports is better live. Sports is, is, Is advertising driven. And so the business model on that side is going to be differen…”

“What's going to happen is people are going to end up paying about the same amount of money every month they do for content today. There should be paying different people. And I think that that's going to be the case. This idea that there's going to be this, yo…”

“People are like, oh, Yeah. How many subscription sites can there be? Like, not everyone can have, like, 50 subscriptions. And no, that's not the outcome. The outcome is breadth. There's gonna be so many niches, and there's so many people out there that, that t…”

“I am concerned that with, like, the scare around, like, people freaking out about Mythos and, like, this Hugging Face incident, that the actual Implication of that is not that we reduce these dangers, but we just stop releasing stuff. And we on the outside sta…”

“Then, like, the speed with which the tech companies blew through the debt markets is kind of incredible. Like, it took, like, a year, and now Google's issuing equity.”

“Google already made a deal to sell, like, 20% of their TPUs to Anthropic.”

“And they, I think the, you know, the recent reporting was they expected to have seventy-five million Game Pass subscribers by this year. They have like thirty million, and that number is actually decreasing. It's not going up.”

“To the extent AI is as impactful and powerful as it is, The more these questions, fundamental questions that we thought have been settled for hundreds of years, if not thousands of years, are going to be raised, and this is just the first of several episodes w…”

“ChatGPT comes out. Every hyperscaler starts investing like crazy. What does TSMC do? They actually decreased their capex year over year, two years in a row. They did, they, there was no market response from TSMC to the ChatGPT moment.”

“Things that are common experiences are going to be more and more valuable. Common content, common classroom time, live events, like shared experiences, because anything that's individualized is just going to be completely swallowed.”

“EUV has another five, six years, and then it's not super clear what's after that.”

“And I think those are where the jobs of the future are going to come from. They're not going to come from A Facebook”

“But even that is a good example because Apple is not moving, truly moving out of China. Like they're diversifying to an extent, but the problem, it would just cost so much.”

“You still have to run inference like GLM or Kimi. Kimi is very expensive to serve. The cost per answer is significantly higher.”

“AWS, contrary to sort of popular thought, was not spare Amazon capacity. Actually, it took a long time to get Amazon.com onto AWS, but the, what it drove was the understanding that we need to have a scalable, we can't be having so many meetings. Like, we need …”

“Apple's never had an iPhone recall.”

“The other problem is they've spent Cumulative hundred some billion dollars on Oculus”

“Google built its business by buying up dark fiber. They had the killer search engine, but they, so much of the power, what they do is because they bought up all this dark fiber. That was basically free after the.com era.”

“We're going to believe it or not. We are going to have too much memory capacity in a few years because we have such a shortage right now.”

“Substack's seed deck says Shackery in a box. That was their pitch.”

“For a long time, my percentage of subscribers actually followed was a fixed percentage of my Twitter followers.”

“The reality is interviews don't drive subscriptions. And so I do it because again, I want to push the tech product. I want people to use my podcast product.”

“There were tons of sites writing about technology, but the vast majority, all of them basically were writing about technology from a product perspective, from sort of product lens.”

“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”

“Like BNSF in twenty-twenty-five or something, they're, the amount of free cash they've threw off in one year was more than these candies that throw off its entire lifetime. Even though you're talking about a low margin business compared to a very high margin b…”

“I had 500 Twitter followers when he posted that, and within 12 hours I had 1500 Twitter followers.”

“In November, I put a little post out. First, I simplified my model. I said, no more of this 300 level, cheap level, one price and one product. That's all you're getting. And then number two, I'm like, hey, I got a thousand subscribers. Business model works. Yo…”

“Every link to myself in a strategy email is tokenized and that token goes one link deep. So even if that email is forwarded to you can go read old stuff.”

“Half my subscribers now listen instead of read, which is amazing.”

“And, you know, at this point, for a long time, they're actually fifty-fifty, but at this point, my annual membership is actually a fair bit larger than my monthly membership, and I think that's great.”