The Ledger, every show

“I think that the lay person will be as good as a what a senior software engineer that works at Google is today. So I think that's happening very soon.”

“The only agents that work are software agents, marketing agents, sales agents, all that haven't really worked very well.”

“And we're, you know, we're approaching a certain plateau in how good coding models could get.”

“I think for all intents and purposes, IDEs are dead. I think the, you know, the limp along because again, some engineers just love that, that control, but there's no future in them and that there's no one's going to be asking for like the latest feature of lik…”

“My prediction is that all application software will go to zero. In other words, software will be dirt cheap, that no one will be making money on the traditional type of SaaS software.”

“If they're gonna compete by undercutting everyone on price, they're gonna destroy the ecosystem.”

“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”

“So there's a lot of, I think, vertical, niche-specific SaaS tools that are generatable very easily, even with today's technology, let alone like a year from now, I think you'll be able to kind of generate them, especially on a platform like Replit, which gives…”

“As, you know, non-professional software engineers are able to build their own software I think that the demand for the, you know, plethora of SaaS that we have today will also go down, and that will reduce, because you'll be able to generate software on the fl…”

“So I think I think the population of software engineering will probably be constant and not grow all that much.”

“But I could imagine like whatever, five years from now someone running, you know, a billion dollar company with zero employees, where it's like the support is handled by AI. The development is handled by AI.”

“One good engineer in 10 years would be as productive as a hundred engineers today.”

“I think Bitcoin is the future reserve currency of the world.”

“So with software engineering becoming more accessible because of AI, I do think we're going to get a lot more developers. I think we're going to get way, way more developed, probably 10 X. So right now there's like thirty million developers in the world. There…”

“And the way I see, so the developer market evolving to accommodate this new technology Is that there's going to be this bit of a bimodal distribution. So bimodal distribution, meaning there's no middle end, there's a large tail on both sides, right? So the mid…”

“And so you're gonna have maybe fewer of those sort of low level, 10 X engineers, but they're gonna be a thousand X engineers. And so maybe a single company would need two or three Like elite engineers, and then maybe dozens of front end engineers kind of build…”

“They actually had a lot of trouble fundraising in Silicon Valley. They had to kind of go to Saudi and all of that”

“In reality, actually, Reply users were like six months ahead of everyone else, even people in the labs, because when we launch these agents, a lot of times we get researchers messaging us, it's like, oh, we didn't know Claude was capable of running for, you kn…”

“I think every company will have an Oracle internally, especially once we get to, like, the one billion contact link, and you put all the contacts of the company inside there, and the CEO can go to the Oracle, like, oh, Oracle, tell me how do I run this company…”

“I think we're now probably on a, like a bit of a, the start of a downturn in terms of people perception of agents. And I think later by like Q three and four, we're going to see another major capabilities jump and the tools will get a lot better. And I think w…”

“And what we've noticed is that people that are getting the most value out of our product, Tend to be the more tech-adjacent ones. Maybe people, product managers have written code many years ago, but don't worry about the development environment setup. Don't wa…”

“So I think perhaps Agent Five, or maybe sooner, you should be able to tell Replit, every day build me a SaaS company, and like, try to market it, and see what works, and make me some revenue.”

“And so for us to be able to, like, deploy an agent inside an organization, and for that agent just continues to get better for that org itself is, is such a powerful thing, but that just still seems far away.”

“I think the company of the future is made of builders and salespeople broadly.”

“If I were to make a prediction, I would say that we'll still have engineers inside the organizations. Those engineers are responsible for more infrastructure, AI, ML embedded systems, you know, more, more, you know, low level engineering. And then you have pro…”

“And when they use Replit, the return on investment is as good, if not greater than product teams. With product teams, you're cutting down product development lifecycle, which is hugely valuable. With operations teams, you're actually being more efficient. You'…”

“People are skipping the SaaS tools entirely and like building on top of their data warehouse.”

“And so it's like an ever expanding TAM and it's going to be perhaps as big as the internet if not more. And that's like, I'm talking about just software generation broadly.”

“For us at Rap Lit, I think what we want to try to eliminate is or reduce is a lot of supporting roles. We want builders, right? We want we want builders and we want salespeople”

“Replit has been on the App Store since twenty-twenty-two doing exactly the same thing, allowing people to generate or write code. And running it in a browser window. Suddenly they're saying that we are you know, we're not complying with their guidelines. And w…”

“I think there are people that are going to be entirely programming in natural language.”

“I don't think we've invented the UI for how to mix and match these LLMs and how to program them. So as much as I am a big believer in natural language-based programming, I think at some point as agents get better and they're like working most of the time in th…”

“As much as I love Silicon Valley, we tend to flatten the world. We just like build one size fit all. And that, that means like, you know, SaaS software tends to have all these buttons and configuration just to fit every use case. But instead, we're going to ex…”

“But if you believe in AI, as I do, and we're going to continue to make progress on AI agents, and all the labs, billions of dollars, perhaps trillions of dollars, are going towards optimizing code specifically, then we're going to get to a point where it's, ag…”

“There's high-profile cases where people have psychotic breaks because they have, like, delusions of grandeur and things like that, and ChatGPT is, like, reinforcing that, and that's, like, really bad.”

“I don't think that we'll get to the singularity or I don't think that, I don't think we're gonna get to the next level of human civilization until we crack the true nature of intelligence. Like until we understand and have algorithms that are actually not brut…”

“Another related problem is that since we're Dependent on, ah, expert data in order to train the alums and the alums start to substitute those workers. But, you know, at some point there's no more experts because they're all out of jobs and they're equivalent t…”

“I don't think we're gonna get to a point where you automate every, every job. Definitely not in the current paradigm. I would I would doubt it happening. I, I'm not certain it would ever happen, but definitely not in the current paradigm. Now here's what I thi…”

“Quad 4.5 seemed to have to become more aware of its context length. So as it gets closer to the end of the context, it starts becoming more economical with tokens. It also, it looks like its awareness when it's being red teamed or in test environment, like jum…”

“I would say LLMs today, you know, they're marketed as a million token length. Which is like a million words almost. In reality, it's about 200,000, and then they start to struggle.”

“Because there doesn't seem to be transfer learning across these domains that are, you know, significant, right? So if we get a lot better at code, We're not immediately getting better at, like, generalized reasoning. We need to go also, you know, get training …”

“We can get to, like, functional AGI, and what functional AGI is, is just, yeah, collect data on every useful economic activity in in the world today, and train an LLM on top of that, or train the same foundation model on top of that, and we'll, we'll go, we'll…”

“Stop AI progress today. And Repla will continue to get better for the next five years. Like, wait, there's so much we could do just on the app app layer and the infrastructure layer.”

“He talked about all the different things that are really unsolved, but in reality, we actually solved a lot of them.”

“Or plus, which I assume we're going to get to in the next couple of years, you can really spin up a thousand agents, give them a lot, thousand problems, and reliably be confident that like, 95% of them is going to work.”

“Right now, the edge of what's possible is like computer use, in my opinion, is really at the frontier of what these models could do, and I think over the next three to six months, they're going to get a lot better, and it's going to enable an entire new market…”

“And this idea of like a sovereign individual, someone so empowered by technology, so empowered by these agents. That is able to create enormous amount of wealth individually is, is is, is going to be the norm.”

“It's a big market right now, but it was created by a single person, and we don't know who they are, and I think that's going to be a common occurrence in the future.”