The Ledger, every show

“From the very founding of OpenAI, I was never claiming it was gonna be open source. I was claiming it was gonna be once safety, open access and not differential or controlling access for that”

“My guess is the soonest will be GPT-Six and it might not even, it may even be after that, and that's part of what the bet that OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers are all making, is that that, that return to scale”

“I know Sam offered him as much of the investment round as he wanted. Right? Like, he could have done the whole thing. He could have let it.”

“With a, you know, kind of outside party, you can get paid enough in a non-exclusive IP license and an ability to selectively hire folks, and then you can dividend some of that out to investors. So investors, you know, get back a, you know, kind of a one X and …”

“She's done a good job on the price cartel. She did a good job on the anti-competes, both of which I think are very, very good for, you know, Competitive markets.”

“I think that the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store, right?”

“I wouldn't be surprised if we look at all the money that goes to all the different organizations, if Organization X kind of had some kind of ballot thing. My voice instruction was always like, no, no, no, don't do that. That's anti-democratic.”

“I think this week Kroger said, yes, we did actually artificially raise prices. To profit from the pandemic, you know”

“We can navigate a higher tax rate. It'll be less fast on growth and everything else, but we can still invest, create businesses, you know, et cetera. But we can't do it with You know, kind of a corroding the rule of law, right? Like, you know, I think both Dav…”

“And so I think part of what we're going to be doing is kind of training, you know, AI to kind of be as an assistant on every smartphone, and the first question will be is, do you have access to a GP, right? Because by the way, if you have access to a GP, You k…”

“People say, well, it's all about the size of the model you're training. So it'll be open AI, Google, Microsoft, you know, and that's it. And you're like, well, no, actually, in fact, there's going to be a lot more than just the size of the model you're trainin…”

“But one of the things that I believe with some vigor is that anything that we count as a professional activity, Today, or yesterday, will, within three to five years, have an AI, you know, use the Microsoft language, copilot.”

“The American electorate right now hasn't really fully remembered the corruption and incompetencies of Trump.”

“The real issue is AI is a human amplifier. I'm a lot less worried that the robots are coming than Putin is coming with his AI enablement.”

“I think that, call it five years from now, there won't be a professional doing professional activity who, if they're not using AI to help them with it, is being fully competent at the profession they're doing.”

“I do think that it won't be, that it's kind of like a grain, like grain of wheat. Or a pound of copper, you know, kind of in the classic thing. I think that foundation models will be different. They'll be different, like there'll be this one, there'll be found…”

“And so I think we're already in the equivalent of a resumption of the acceleration of Moore's law.”

“So I think that there is literally no doubt in my mind that there's viable businesses that will play out, and... Purely in the foundation model. Purely in the foundation model”

“If what we were was, call it, seven big tech companies heading to three, then I would be concerned, right, because of, kind of, the monopoly effect. But I actually think we're seven big tech companies heading, like, 15.”

“I think it's almost zero percent the way a frontier model created and the way the frontier models exist today. I think that wave is gone.”

“People frequently mistake what quality of data means because they think, oh, you have to train on the New York Times. And actually, in fact most of it is quantity of human data, not because you've had any particular journalist who's, who's got a particularly n…”

“Look, if you're saying what really matters is, like, the driving function here will be the billion dollar compute run to make this model, it'll be very difficult for startups to do that, right? I mean, even in this more modern global venture capital where star…”

“Google Brain invents the kind of transformer and publishes it, and it's kind of bouncing around as kind of a research project, and it takes OpenAI developing it, scaling it, and releasing it as ChatGPT for Google to go on red alert and go, oh my god, we should…”

“Sam was very very much wanted to have a board that was separate governance from himself. A lot of founders tend to set up as, no, the board is my rubber stamp vehicle.”

“Oh look, super smart. I'd say his biggest strength Is a willingness to be contrarian based on first principles and an absolute, like, maximization of speed. Right? Like, can we have this done by the end of the day? But, you know, that kind of thing. And I thin…”

“Well, one of them is I think even shorter than that, Every single person who has a smartphone will have one or more personal agents, personal AI agents, that's why we, in inflection we call it Pi, that is their agent, but it is like there for them, and on a wh…”

“I think your most important job is I have a line of sight to a medical tutor, or sorry, a medical assistant, probably better than your average general practitioner on every smartphone.”

“I think obviously the public market should have responded differently because I think he is a great, you know, kind of metastrategist, and his, you know, kind of turn into AI who's going to matter fundamentally here is a hundred percent correct.”

“Distribution, especially in mobile internet software is more important than quality of product.”

“It was a genius invention that came about of necessity because the Chinese government didn't want to have any social networks with more than 500 followers.”

“Well, if I could wave a wand and essentially, you know, kind of say that nobody could be doing digital twins whatsoever, given the negative consequences, especially because it's a election year, I'd wave the wand because I think that the negative immediate con…”

“If you said, well, I could have a CEO, With maybe who's a little less proven, but has the refounding mindset, you know or I can have a CEO who's proven, but doesn't have the refounding mindset. Personally, I would always opt for the refounding mindset, right?”

“Well, I think one of the key things that OpenAI has stayed true to that relatively few of the other players are internalized to the degree to which OpenAI does it, which is a scale compute.”

“Yes, you know, this algorithm's a little better. Yes, this algorithm's a little worse. Yes, this data set's a little better. Yes, this data set's a little worse, but it's the scale that is primarily driving. And so it drove it in the large language models, hen…”

“Whether or not you think AGI is, is high probability, medium probability, low probability, wherever you are in that spectrum, you will be creating really interesting increases in cognitive capability of these systems. Say they can't raise seven trillion or not…”

“Like it isn't going to be the David and Goliath where David invents his new thing, AI, and it kind of resets the apple carts of the Goliaths that are appropriately bought into AI, which, you know, is intensely Microsoft and Google and, you know, some Amazon an…”

“It's like the classic dialogue thing is we got to limit the big tech and you're like, well, that's, if you want to really want to limit your economic future.”

“I don't think that much AI productivity is currently baked into the numbers. And rigged in the way that people are operating.”

“What you want is some people going, you guys are out of your minds, and some people going, I see it. You want a polarized reaction.”

“GBD-IV is already super intelligent relative to a number of human capabilities, is actually not that alarming. Go play with GBD-IV. It's not alarming. It's actually enhancing and amplifying in various ways.”

“This is one of the reasons why I didn't sign the 22 word statement of, you know, AI should be treated as an existential risk along with climate change, pandemic, et cetera.”

“The critics think they're virtuous because they go, oh, there's this danger that we should trumpet, and you're like, well, actually, in fact, you may be doing more harm than you're doing good in your attempt to be virtuous, because by trumpeting the negativity…”

“I think the new architectures, there's a bunch of stuff that I've been trying to work with, but I don't think new architectures will be one to two years. I'd be surprised if it was.”

“The most significant programming language in the next few years is gonna turn into English, and then of course rapidly followed by Chinese, because the broad use of the language and being able to create things, computational artifacts, Code, et cetera.”

“Maybe this is top of mind from the EU act stuff, which, you know, always makes me think that they're trying to hold onto the past so ferociously that they're just completely willing to sacrifice the future anyway.”

“There's a standard way of thinking about this in Silicon Valley, which argues that large online platforms are inherently objective and do not have values of their own. I think this is incorrect. All platforms are, in fact, value-laden.”

“For example, on the Facebook side, they say, well, what people click en masse demonstrates their actual preferences, what they actually like, and so we have a democratic platform that promotes what people click on. It's a reflection of actual behavior and pref…”

“Do we know if it's going to suddenly become, you know, much more intelligent? It's like, well, I can't guarantee it's not going to, although it seems quite unlikely, and it seems that there's a bunch of stuff under our control and people asking the right quest…”