The Ledger, every show

“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”

“I think there is a rotation that would have to happen and it could be quite painful. So rotation out of the big tech sector that's obviously benefited from low rate environment for a very long time into more value sector. That, that rotation is unlikely to be …”

“I think a lot of these big tech companies are still being priced in for a global TAM, which they will not get. And they won't get it, not because China, like, bans them. But because I think every economic region, every major economy has an incentive to impose …”

“You don't need to, and you don't want to own growth stocks when there's plenty of growth. You want to own them when there isn't.”

“A multipolar ordering, where there's multiple countries that kind of have a ability to pursue foreign policy and trade policy on their own, that's an ordering that doesn't produce bifurcation. In fact, enemies have to continue to trade with one another.”

“So the yield divergence between US and China is going to favor carry trades in China because they're adopting far less stimulative policies.”

“There's a good chance that legislators started looking into this, and I think that that's going to cause a shift in allocation to much more smaller players into private space, more VC investments, and other more exotic strategies that don't rely on kind of rol…”

“I think there's a lot of upside potential in oil markets, and that's both because there's this risk, upside risk to oil prices of a Trump victory”

“And so I think if Trump wins again, they see the writing on the wall, and I don't think they're gonna reach out by thinking of, oh, let's negotiate with the U.S.”

“In negotiations, look, I think the odds are that we do get some sort of deal, likely a deal on a skeleton that they will then negotiate through twenty-twenty-one.”

“And so I think the consequences of even what people will hail as a successful conclusion to the negotiations, I think even the consequences of that would probably be negative for the UK economy.”

“India has just not done that. It hasn't created the conditions domestically, either through force or through incentives to be an investment-friendly economy. And I think until they do that, I am bearish in India.”

“And it's a environment in which the frequency of geopolitical conflict is going to be higher.”

“Russia has built up a massive current account surplus, biggest since 2006. Their FX reserves are five hundred fifty billion. They've rebuilt them since 2014.”

“Only about 25, 30% of Russians would want to be in a single state. And vast majority of Russians, 80%, according to some of the polls I've seen, expected there not to be a war.”

“In my book, I literally have that table that goes through every conflict ever, and every single one of them, Ted, was a buying opportunity, except for the Yom Kippur war.”

“I think we're redrawing the commodity supply chains because suddenly things like cobalt become extremely relevant to the future of your energy supply. And most of it is found in the Congo and China has really good reach in the Congo.”

“Because if economics and finance was predictable, if it was just a Newtonian exercise, then folks who have PhDs in finance would be billionaires, and we all know that's not the case.”

“They were the wind in our sails from 1980 until 2010. You had these two really important mega trends. One was American hegemony, and so you could kind of ignore the geopolitical stuff like, you know, Azerbaijan, Armenia go to war in early nineties, much less o…”

“Preferences are really not the starting point of analysis, because they're a derivative. They're subject to something else, and that's something else's constraints, because unlike preferences, Constraints are not optional.”

“Look, right now, from what we understand at Clocktower, the allocation to China is about two percent. For real money allocators, and it's like 20, 25% of global economy.”

“I am bullish the euro. I think that if you are bearish on the dollar for the next decade, you gotta be bullish on something. There's obviously gold, which I would be bullish on, but I think the euro is interesting.”

“That's why I think some of the best managers are not necessarily people who went to the best schools or not necessarily people who are the best educated in terms of like the length of their education. They're all extremely smart, but they're promiscuous intell…”

“I think what Acemoglu and Robinson do is really powerful, and it's a really, really good book, and it really tries to distill, like, a thousand years of history of successful countries down to really one thing, setting up institutions that will allow successfu…”

“And we saw a hundred basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, and a hundred basis point moving the yields higher, which hadn't happened since the eighties.”

“Households have made 10 trillion dollars in real estate over the last five years, and if you get yields down, not only would they start buying homes again, but they might dip into that home equity through HELOCs.”

“I think it's far fetched that Russia stops exporting oil or that the rest of the world embargoes it, but palladium, they produce 47% of global supply.”

“You have to kind of like understand there's theater going on, you know, like UK EU negotiations. You asked me about like, yeah, it's all Hollywood.”