The Ledger, every show

“I would say the vast majority of organizations, ok, and I'm talking from Facebook and Twitter, all the way down to, ah, GPs. They would be well served, right, to be much smaller, to be essentialists in the people that they have. Because it's very likely that y…”

“However, the hyperventilation this week by Bill Ackman on Twitter, that the Fed needs to be doing radically more, that somehow we need to be raising rates to six, seven, eight percent in order to squash inflation, to me seems highly misdirected and totally out…”

“Everybody knows we're not gonna go defend Taiwan. Everybody knows we're not gonna send our military to Ukraine.”

“The sanctimony that exists in urban areas. You know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on l…”

“For the vast majority of use cases, I think token consumption is going up for the open source guys while share of economics is going up for the frontier labs.”

“Cursor was already on a path to go from three billion to ten billion by the end of the year. Cursor plus Grock could be at 10 to twenty billion by the end of the year.”

“And now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three or four year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation on the Morgan Stanley numbers or on the Elon numbers or whatever.”

“Right now the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the Frontier Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs. That they're willing to pay three, four, five X market pricing in order to get at sc…”

“I think all of these companies are gonna compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”

“If these guys end the year over a hundred billion, I think that they're on a revenue Trajectory that they could three to five X again next year.”

“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff. There is no evidence of that on the field today. It may develop over the course…”

“So I think there's a chance that over the course of the next two to three years, As we take on much more complex agentic tasks, that the distance between the frontier and everybody else doesn't converge, it actually extends.”

“We told the president, we think we can raise a hundred billion dollars in the first 12 months.”

“We are on a trajectory now that we're going to have over a hundred million of these counts set up over the next decade.”

“If you do the math on this, over the course of the next 15 years, you could have somewhere between two and four trillion dollars added to the accounts of families and kids who would have otherwise had zero.”

“So I think there might be a real consolidation in the AI compute market where you have the hyperscalers on the one hand, and on the other hand, you know, he may emerge as the largest, strongest player in the AI compute market.”

“Our own, ah, projections were that they could exit this year at up to ten billion dollars of revenue, so they were growing very fast, ah, ah, one of the leading coding agents.”

“And so I think for most institutional investors, it's a must buy, a must own, it's set it and forget it, right, in order to have a real bet on both the space and the AI future.”

“I think the number on twenty-twenty-seven Is likely closer to 1.5 trillion.”

“Atropic, no way did they think they were going to be anywhere close to breakeven. Right? In, in, in, in this part of the curve. And the reason, like I called it accidental profitability that, you know, people have been talking about that because they want to s…”

“The forecast now that we're going to add another trillion of revenue in just three companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, over the next four to five years, ok? Like, not seven companies, three companies, and in half the time, right?”

“Secondaries over the last couple of years, we're trading at a discount to market. So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, Right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we c…”

“It is destabilizing when you're creating trillions of dollars in private value and 80% of America think it's a scam where they're left out and left behind.”

“I actually think the public markets may be shifting back in this direction. And a lot of the companies in our portfolios are now thinking about going public at a billion or three billion or five billion. We had this period of a decade where Andreessen was real…”

“Had Anthropic not delivered its revenues that it's delivered this year, I think the stock market would be down 10 or 15%.”

“Of course, I believe that optimization will continue, but my hunch is that anthropic and open and these companies will continue to grow right through the optimization because the growth curve on penetration of both enterprise and use case is so steep.”

“If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're going to get a above market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, Your business gets worse, then I promise you they will …”

“For me, software today is generally in this, in the too hard basket.”

“There's not a dark GPU in the world today. ... There's not a dark token in the world today.”

“So it seems to me that that's a more likely outcome, you know Thrive Holdings buying a Kirkland and Ellis and saying, now we're going to, you know, take this thing and AI turbocharge it. I think you're going to see a lot of that out of private equity firms, ou…”

“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”

“And so I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental four to five billion dollars of revenue.”

“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”

“On a gap basis, they're doing about the same revenue as OpenAI in the month of March, okay?”

“I've talked to a lot of big companies, 65 to 70% of their token consumption is open source model, right?”

“I will just tell you that you're talking single digit percentage of total revenue of these companies.”

“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”

“I think we're getting close to a deal on Ukraine, Russia.”

“I think for a lot of these tech companies, we've hit peak employment.”

“And the estimate is over 15 years. We can move five trillion dollars into the pockets of families that would have otherwise had zero.”

“Where the models and the agents on top of them, whether it's Cloud Code, Codex, ChatGPT, they're no longer competing with IT budgets. They're now augmenting labor. They're competing with labor budgets.”

“I happen to think that I would take the over on the number of rate cuts that Warsh is going to give us this year.”

“I estimate about half of that spending is going to be borne by the partners. So now we're talking seven hundred billion dollars in spending. Spread that over five or six years in the out years, you're probably talking about a hundred and Fifty billion dollars …”

“If we do an own goal here and slow down because we think somehow that this is the path to greater economic growth, it's going to be a real problem, both national security as well as economic security. Three, five years down the line.”

“I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a reacceleration of GDP.”

“If you add them all up, it looks like to me, OpenAI would be on the hook for like a hundred and fifty billion of CapEx in 2030.”

“Is it plausible they could have a hundred and fifty billion dollars of revenue in 2030, and I would argue as an investor that it's more than plausible that they could have a hundred and fifty billion in revenue, but I think it makes it very, very difficult for…”

“And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two 43, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot.”