Nate Silver
Founder & Author, Silver Bulletin. On 1 show, 2 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
analystjournalistfounderauthor@NateSilver538 ↗fivethirtyeight.com ↗Wikipedia ↗
Nate Silver gained international prominence as the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, developing probabilistic models to predict elections and sports metrics. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise and writes the newsletter Silver Bulletin.
1shows
2appearances
47statements
14resolved
11supported
0contradicted
79%fully supported
54said about them ↓ Everything Nate Silver said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Nate Silver: California's official vote count accurately reflects ballots cast
“I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were cast.”
Silver: 10% or higher risk of severe US constitutional crisis in 2024
“It may not resolve itself in the end of democracy, but like, that's like a, you know, a risk that's, you know, in the 10% range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in twenty-twenty-four and maybe repeated that in twenty-twenty-eight and so forth,…”
Nate Silver: 43 states can be predicted for 2028 with 97% confidence
“43 of the 50 states, David, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028, and it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.”
Nate Silver: Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028
“I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028.”
Nate Silver: Immigrant and entrepreneurial groups are shifting away from Democrats
“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”
Nate Silver: Democrats have an 85% to 90% chance to take the House
“Prediction markets say Democrats are around, I think, 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think, if anything, it's a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90.”
Nate Silver: GOP has a slight edge to retain the Senate
“Whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss up probably, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly fifty-fifty or maybe, maybe…”
Silver: Politics discourages critical thinking and encourages confirmation bias
“I just don't think that like politics teaches people to think critically and it's like, yeah, part of that is like, they're not thinking probabilistically, but it's more like people just want to see their kind of priors confirmed.”
Silver: Political left and right are becoming increasingly authoritarian
“Both the left and the right have become more authoritarian in certain ways. I think the type of authoritarianism on the right It's quite a bit more dangerous in the moment, but, ah, they're both kind of moving away from kind of liberalism in some kind of class…”
Silver: Silicon Valley grasps scale, whereas social media flattens all discourse
“One thing that people in Silicon Valley get right for all their faults and self-servingness in some ways, right, They kind of get the orders of magnitudes, right? They understand scale and social media and the daily news cycle really collapses that, right? So …”
Silver: Base case for 2022 midterms is Republican majorities in Congress
“Midterm elections are more predictable Than presidential elections. And the base case is that you wind up with Republican majorities of some magnitude.”
Silver: Moderate political candidates gain a two to four point electoral advantage
“You can actually see the effect of being more moderate will gain you an extra two or three or four points, right? Being less More moderate, more radical in some cases, will lose you two or three or four points.”
Nate Silver: Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 38%
“Donald Trump in our approval ratings now is down to. 38%.”
Nate Silver: Socialism is significantly more popular among younger Democrats
“I think people who are a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand Is much more popular among younger Democrats.”
Nate Silver: The AI capital boom is keeping the stock market afloat
“I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of it is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market in relatively good shape.”
Nate Silver: Jon Ossoff is likely more electable than Gavin Newsom
“I think maybe the most electable Democrat might be somebody like a John Ossoff, who is younger, who is pretty progressive if you look at his voting record, but like, but isn't like a brawler in quite the same way that, that Newsom is trying to be.”
Nate Silver: Claude and ChatGPT are less polarizing than Twitter or Bluesky
“Claude or ChatGPT is probably less polarizing than Blue Sky or Twitter.”
Nate Silver: 80% of voters agreed Joe Biden was too old
“Saying, Biden is obviously too old, Democrats, you're gonna lose unless you replace him. Like, that, even though it's a stance that, like, literally 80% of voters agreed with, will make you, like, seem like a heretic on Twitter.”
Silver: Probabilistic intuition matters more than formal mathematical modeling in VC
“In the VC field, I don't know if you're necessarily doing as much modeling as I might in election model, for example, but at the very least, people understand the intuition, and the intuition is, you need both, but I think the intuition is more important than …”
Silver: VC investing requires being six to twelve months ahead of the curve
“In VC, I mean, you might want to find a founder or a sector or a company that's undervalued by the market, but eventually you want that sector to grow. You want to attract more talent. You want to attract future fundraising rounds. So you kind of are more bein…”
Silver: Sam Bankman-Fried accepted bets with 50% failure odds for huge payoffs
“I talked to Sam Beckman-Fried for the book, for example, and he's like, yeah, I knew this would have like a, only a 50% chance of succeeding, but the payoff was so high, I would take it.”
Silver: Highly successful individuals may take on excessive risk
“The people who are super uber successful maybe are almost taking on more risk than they maybe should.”
Silver: Political discourse relies on hypocritical, short-term reasoning
“It's a lot of very hypocritical and ad hoc thinking in politics, right? It's instrumental reasoning toward trying to win an argument at that moment in that day”
The other half of the tape: Nate Silver's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 53 times in 22 episodes across the shows. 1 statement on the record names them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 22David Friedberg 15Chamath Palihapitiya 10David Sacks 4Tim Urban 1Haralabos Voulgaris 1
Statements about Nate Silver, by other people (1)
Friedberg: Nate Silver's model gives Trump 56.9% Electoral College chance
“Harris currently has a 42.5% probability of winning the Electoral College. Trump 56.9%. Kennedy coming in at zero percent. On the popular vote, Harris has a 57.1% probability of winning the popular vote. 42.9% probability for Trump.”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
All-In 53
2024 34 mentions in 11 episodes 3 per episode
- Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
- Megyn Kelly | All-In Summit 2024
- Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
- Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
- Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
- Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
- Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
- 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
- 3 more episodes that year, every mention in 2024 →
2023 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2022 10 mentions in 7 episodes 1 per episode
- E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
- E103: Tech layoffs surge, big tech freezes hiring, optimizing for profits, election preview & more
- #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
- E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
- #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
- E77: Tech work culture, crypto regulation, stablecoins, $NFLX & more w/ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
- E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview
- every mention in 2022, scene by scene →
2021 2 mentions in 1 episode
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Nate's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL-INLEDGER | Founder & Author, Silver Bulletin | 2 | 47 | 79% 11/14 | full record on All-In → |