Everything Mitchell Green said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Green: Software stocks will remain dead money for a quarter or two
“What you're going to see is they're going to take numbers down at a bunch of companies. Give it a quarter or two. Companies will start to then, you know, beat numbers. Then they'll raise the numbers, and the stocks will start to work. But it's probably dead mo…”
Mitchell Green: Internet stocks stay expensive due to stock-based compensation dilution
“Well, the reason a lot of these stock or stocks and internet stocks are actually still not cheap is because the stock-based comp, like, the stock-based comp in a lot of these companies is totally nuts. Like, the amount of equity compensation and dilution of, l…”
Green: ByteDance could reach $70B to $100B in earnings within five years
“I think it is possible to see in a few years that this company's doing, you know, 70, eighty, hundred billion of earnings in the next five years.”
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Green: The biggest internet innovations of the last decade came from China
“Look, if you look at the internet, the biggest innovation in internet is usually over the last decade or 15 years to come out of China.”
Green: China can engineer and reverse engineer tech cheaper than Americans
“Don't underestimate, like, Chinese creativeness and, like, ingenuity to, like, figure out how to, like, reverse engineer and engineer things in much cheaper ways than Americans can do.”
Green: High 2020-2021 Valuations Destroyed Returns for Good Companies
“There are a lot of people that invested in good companies or great companies in twenty-twenty and twenty-twenty-one at really stupid prices and didn't make money.”
Green: Investors Will Still Hold Unsold 2012 Stakes in 2030
“At some point, I don't know if it's three years, or five years, or seven years, for sure. People are gonna wake up in 20, in 2030, in 2032, and realize it's, oh my god, they're still all in this stuff from 20 12 and 20 15.”
Green: VC liquidity crisis will persist until LPs refuse re-ups
“When LPs go to the biggest venture funds in the world, and private equity funds, and say, we're not investing in your next fund until you get liquidity in these names.”
Green: Growth VCs should re-invest in public shares of former portfolio wins
“But what surprises me is that more funds, like, you know, if you were an early investor in Toast, and you're fully out of it, and you love the company, and the stock's down, like, 60%, like, why not go buy it again? Like, it surprises me more people don't do t…”
Mitchell Green: Doubling a $100B VC investment requires $25B in earnings
“And you invest in something that's worth, like, it's worth a hundred billion dollars. You're effectively saying to make a double with dilution, it's probably two hundred and fifty billion dollars. Like, that's making the bet it's gonna do twenty-five billion d…”
Green: Venture capital was facing a rude awakening before AI emerged
“I think the venture industry was about to be in for a rude awakening, and then AI showed up.”
Green: Tech investors learned nothing from the 2020-2021 bubble
“People didn't learn a damn thing from 20 and 21. It's, like, shocking.”
Green: Prices for AI infrastructure are going to plummet
“Same thing's gonna happen. Prices are gonna plummet.”
Green: Only three $100B+ companies were created post-iPhone
“You know, since the iPhone came out in 2007, 2006, whatever it was, there's only been three companies built that did not exist before. That were a hundred billion dollar companies. ByteDance, Pindo Doe, and Uber.”
Green: Lead Edge would take 0.7x returns to exit slow-growth SaaS
“Yes, we have a prep so we would get our one X, but if you told me today I could take a .7 X just to get out of it, I would happily cut you. I would happily do it.”
Green: Early-stage investors should exit and sell upon IPO
“If you are a early stage investor, when your company goes public, you should get off the board and sell the company.”
Green: Venture capital GPs are complacent about returning LP capital
“There's just a lot of, like, I think a lot of people in this industry are very complacent. All of us as GPs, Need to do a better job getting money back to LPs and figuring out how to do it.”
Green: Emerging VC managers must utilize secondary markets
“What I believe like emerging managers and people starting venture funds need to do is take advantage of the secondary wind of the secondary markets.”
Green: AI software startups show shockingly low gross dollar retention rates
“We look at a lot of these AI software, tons of these AI software companies, and like, the gross dollar retention rates are just like, Really, really low. It's actually, like, shocking.”
Green: TA Associates generated the best tech returns over 30-40 years
“The firm that I think has generated the best returns in the tech investing world over the last 3040 years, and it's become more a buyout fund, but they used to do tons of minorities, TA Associates.”
Green: LPs must ask VCs why they held unlocked stock in 2021
“I believe a great question that people don't ask, that they should ask. Any manager who is around, who's been around 10 plus years, hey, in September of 21, September 30th of 21, how much unlocked stock did you have in your portfolio? And let's say September, …”
Green: ByteDance North America generates only single-digit percentage of total revenue
“ByteDance North America is a, you know, single digit percentage of revenue.”
Green: ByteDance will be a top global AI company within ten years
“I think they're gonna be one of the foremost AI companies on, on the planet over the next decade.”