Everything Matt Miller said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Miller: Top-quartile late-stage venture returns will soon match early-stage returns
“The returns in the private market at the late stage are actually going to start matching the returns at the early stage. If you look at top quartile performance of early stage funds versus late stage funds, I think they're going to be pretty close to each othe…”
Miller: Overcapitalized renewables will likely destroy multiples of shale capital losses
“I see renewables as just a massively overcapitalized space. It will likely torch capital on multiples of what happened to shale.”
Miller: 100% battery backup for Germany's grid would cost $270T
“And the back of the envelope math says, well, in order for Germany to be a hundred percent renewables plus a hundred percent battery, the battery piece of that equation was 270 trillion dollars.”
Miller: Coal-to-gas shift delivers 2.5x the environmental benefit of gas-to-renewables
“And when you look at the delta between, if I move from a coal plant to a natural gas plant, and a natural gas plant to a renewables plant, That first step has 2.5 times the environmental impact.”
Miller: Accel moved slowly on AI apps due to foundation model risks
“We were admittedly slower than our peers on the application layer for AI because we were very worried about how fickle they were when the wakes of the models were getting wider and wider, and we spent a lot of time in infrastructure, and we're continuing to sp…”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Miller: U.S. Shale Will Deplete, Forcing Reliance on Unstable Oil Regimes
“One is I think oil's off to the races. And I do say this to CIOs with a, Hey, think with your inflation hat on this thing is the input to almost every product and humanity. And the reason why is largely the world has lulled itself into a soft slumber on the ba…”
Miller: 80% of Republicans Under 35 Prioritize Climate as Top-Five Policy Issue
“Currently, Republicans under the age of 35, 80% of them say climate should be in our top five list of policy issues.”
Miller: Carbon Will Rival Oil and Gas in Commodity Scope and Scale
“Carbon will be a commodity that rivals oil and gas in scope and scale, and you need to be ready for that.”
Miller: Point-source CCS yields PE returns only in pure-CO2 industries
“Really where you want to focus in carbon capture are in industries that emit pure CO₂ as an industrial byproduct. Industrial accident is a better way to think about it. So those are really ethanol plants, ammonia, so fertilizer, and then natural gas processing…”
Miller: Carbon capture will reach coal and gas plants within a decade
“We are gonna get to coal plants and natural gas plants, a hundred percent certain in the next decade.”
Miller: SEC emissions reporting rules will eventually lead to carbon taxes
“When the government's asking you to measure something, I got news for you. That thing's going to be taxed. That thing is going to be taxed at some point in time, which is a whole different revenue source for the energy transition over time.”
Miller: VCs making founders' funding rounds about themselves is 'cringeworthy'
“I mean, we always, I think we always kind of looked at the social media posts about a founder raising around and a VC making about themselves as like pretty cringeworth. Like, don't throw your shoulder out patting yourself on the back type of situation.”
Miller predicts AI agents will exponentially increase compute demand for inference
“Agents start using inference in an exponential way. The demand curve goes way up for what we, what we're going to need from an inference perspective.”
Miller: Full-stack vertical integration creates an edge in delivering AI inference
“When you control capacity by owning the data centers and the GPUs, and you control the software, you're in an advantageous position to be able to meet the moment and deliver inference for a market that, you know, we fundamentally believe is going to grow expon…”
Miller: Complex financial engineering in deals leads to participant misalignment
“I don't like complicated financial engineering. I don't like inserting puts and calls and preferred equity and ring fencing debt securities because maybe I'm too dumb to understand it, but I think that it just ends up with misalignment and transactions where e…”
Miller: The global shift is an emissions transition, not energy transition
“It's not really an energy transition. It's an emissions transition. The emissions is what we're trying to get at.”
Miller: Western Oklahoma wholesale power prices are negative 20% of the time
“Power prices in western Oklahoma are -20% of the time today. They will pay you to take the power.”
Miller: Good carbon capture projects yield 20–30% unlevered IRR and 3–6x returns
“A good project in carbon capture might be an unlevered 20 to 30% rate of return might be somewhere around three to six times your money. These are competitive with traditional private equity economics.”
Miller: Renewables Disrupt Grid Reliability and Cause Intraday Price Volatility
“We think there's too much capital chasing renewables, and renewables are actually disrupting our grid system. They're causing intraday price volatility. They're causing electricity to be less reliable.”
Miller: Too much energy transition capital is concentrated in mega-funds
“I'd argue vehemently there's too much money in the energy transition. It's just concentrated in the hands of very large funds who can't get out of bed without writing a billion dollar equity check.”
Miller: Electric vehicles are not suitable for the average US consumer
“I think one that I'm bearish on is electric vehicles. There's several things about EVs that are, when you dive in, they're just not a good fit for your average customer.”
Miller: Hybridization of everything will be the US vehicle solution
“I actually think the solution set for the U.S. Is going to be hybridization of everything.”
Miller: 99.9% of global lithium reserves are in four countries
“99.9% of the world's lithium reserves are in the hands of just four countries, China, Chile, Argentina, Australia, none of which are the United States.”