Ian Cinnamon
Co-Founder and CEO, Apex Space. On 2 shows, 2 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
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Ian Cinnamon is the co-founder and CEO of Apex Space, a manufacturer of configurable satellite bus platforms. He previously founded Synapse Technology Corporation, which was acquired by Palantir, and co-founded Superlabs.
2shows
2appearances
29statements
10resolved
6supported
1contradicted
60%fully supported
Everything Ian Cinnamon said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Cinnamon: Building anything less than a $100B company is a failure
“So for me, success is I want to go build a hundred billion dollar company. Anything smaller than that in my mind is a failure.”
Cinnamon: Satellite platform manufacturing speed is the main launch bottleneck
“The reason they're not able to launch more than let's say about a 150 satellites last year in 2024 is fundamentally nobody is able to manufacture the platforms fast enough.”
Cinnamon: Space defense should prioritize cyber and EW over kinetic strikes
“And that's why we want to avoid going into a situation where we have these, you know, capabilities in space where we're shooting down other satellites. I'd much rather use electronic warfare or cyber attacks or things like that.”
Tariffs have overall been positive for Apex Space, says Ian Cinnamon
“I think the tariffs overall have been positive for us, frankly.”
Cinnamon: SBIR grants are easily awarded and create false market validation
“The problem is they kind of dole those out like candy where it's not that hard to get a million dollars here, a million dollars there. And a lot of people mistake that as a signal of saying you're building something that people want.”
Cinnamon: Successful government contracting requires aligning five distinct factors
“So the way that I think about it is like any government contracting, you requires money. It requires a contract vehicle. It requires the right person at the top to be advocating for it, the right users of it, who are the actual end users of it wanting it, and …”
Cinnamon: SpaceX Holds Pricing Power and Has Raised Small Satellite Prices Annually
“And in fact, the price has gone up every year since then. So they have the pricing power. Now it's still very affordable, right? Like, if you rewind to 2015 or 20 10 to launch, ah, our, like, small satellite, like Aries, you'd be looking at 10 to twenty millio…”
Cinnamon: No Space Venture Is Purely Commercial, Not Even Starlink
“So I have a slightly contrarian take on this. I don't think anything is pure play commercial. Nothing. Not even Starlink.”
Cinnamon: Space-Based Interception Is Cheaper and More Reliable Than Ground Launch
“So doing that exoatmospheric interception, it's already happening. But if you're doing it from space, you can actually do it much more cheaply and much more reliably if those assets are already lingering in space instead of needing to track from the ground, an…”
Cinnamon: Apex reports suspicious applicants and fake machine shops to FBI
“We've had some very interesting job applicants come by that we haven't interviewed. We due to the nature of our work, we can only hire US persons, but that doesn't mean people still don't try to sneak in, or we catch some things that are not quite adding up. A…”
Cinnamon: China can deploy orbital defense tech faster due to zero red tape
“Let's say China wanted to go do that, I guarantee you they could get that to orbit and test it a lot faster than we could, just because there's no red tape for them to jump through.”
Los Angeles uniquely combines traditional aerospace, new space, and software talent
“And there's really only one place on the planet that has All three of those, and that is Los Angeles, right?”
Software, not hardware, is the leading cause of on-orbit satellite anomalies
“The leading cause of anomalies on orbit in space is software, not hardware.”
Cinnamon: Satellite architecture shifted to proliferated constellations around 2019
“Around 2019, the architecture started to shift towards what they call proliferation and attritability.”
Cinnamon: Annualized spend on satellite buses is roughly $34 billion
“So in general, there's about thirty four billion dollars of annualized spend on satellite buses.”
Cinnamon: Apex plans to vertically integrate nearly all major satellite components
“If you look at all the parts on the satellite, there's something like a hundred plus different kind of true components that are not just a nut or a bolt, but something that's meaningful on the satellite. We are vertically integrating pretty much all of them ov…”
Cinnamon: Apex Identifies as a Defense Company Focused on Space
“When we look at where we're targeting our company, we don't even consider ourselves a space company. We think of ourselves as a defense company who happens to be focused on space.”
Cinnamon: VLEO remains experimental compared to viable Low Earth Orbit architectures
“Our architecture as a nation has really decided that low earth orbit is very interesting. VLEO is enticing, but Still more science projects.”
China plans to launch over 13,000 government satellites, says Ian Cinnamon
“The CCP has announced plans to launch over 13,000 government satellites in the coming years.”
Apex waited 10 months for Los Angeles permits before four-week buildout
“We got our building, we filed for our permits, we waited nine months, no permits, 10 months in, we got our permits, and then it took four weeks to build up the building.”
Cinnamon: Zynga arrived late to the mobile gaming transition
“Zynga started shifting to mobile. And Zynga got to mobile a little bit late. And as part of that, he wanted to make sure he never missed the mark again on kind of what the next technology shift was.”
Ian Cinnamon: Synapse team was key to building Palantir AIP
“So, got to Palantir and had the opportunity to take the team that we had built and really be a key part of building out AIP and kind of that product line, which obviously is, I think, one of the coolest products that Palantir has.”
Cinnamon: Falcon 9 Reusability Increased Launch Cadence to Weekly by 2020
“In twenty-twenty, that we were at the turning point where they started to reuse the Falcon nine rockets, and we went from being able to launch maybe once a month to about once a week.”
Cinnamon: US government-owned satellite launches tripled between 2019 and 2024
“Between 2019 and 20 24, so over that five year period, The U S government has about tripled the number of satellites that they've launched that are government owned. So they've gone from a pretty low number or like call it about 50 or so to now about a 150 or …”
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Ian's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AMERICAN OPTIMISTLEDGER | Co-Founder and CEO, Apex Space | 1 | 23 | 63% 5/8 | full record on American Optimist → |
 a16zLEDGER | Co-Founder and CEO, Apex Space | 1 | 6 | 50% 1/2 | full record on the a16z Podcast → |