Everything Ben Gilbert said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
AI Data Center Costs Are Over 50% Chips, Under 6% Power
“I've seen estimates that over half the cost of running an AI data center is the chips and the associated depreciation. The human cost, that R&D is actually a pretty high amount because hiring these AI researchers and all the software engineering Is meaningful.…”
AI Chat Ad Rates Will Be Dramatically Higher Than Search Ads
“So, there should be an ad model that emerges, and ad rates should actually be dramatically higher because you have perfect precision.”
Google's AI Market Share Will Stabilize Between 25% and 50%
“They own 90% of the search market. I don't know what they own of the AI market, but it ain't 90%. Is it 25%? I don't know, but at steady state it probably will be something like 25, maybe up to 50%, but This is going to be a market with several big players in …”
AI Will Capture the Highest-Value Search Query Use Cases
“AI might take away the majority of the use cases of search, and even if it doesn't, I bet it takes away a lot of the highest value ones.”
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Ad Auction Liquidity Guarantees Google's Search Traffic Remains Uniquely Valuable
“The most liquid auction
Will always win, and Google has already run away with the search ads auction liquidity, and so traffic on Google searches will forever be worth more than traffic on the second place browser.”
A Divested Chrome's Only Viable Business Model Is Selling Search Traffic
“If the DOJ's ruling is that Google has to divest Chrome, there is one way that Chrome is a business, and that is getting paid by Google to drive traffic to Google as a search engine. It's the only way to operate a business of a browser.”
Microsoft Would Have Won Mobile OS Licensing Without Google Buying Android
“If they don't buy Android and they don't get started basically in the month that they did, this market belongs to Microsoft.”
Big Tech Companies Typically Capture and Dominate Only a Single Paradigm
“The state of play of being a big tech company, and this dates back 80 years, is technology moves fast, and the new paradigms disrupt everyone that came before you, so you get one era. And you gotta make the absolute most Of the one era that you grew up in, and…”
Successful Google Products Require Core Academic-Grade Technical Insights
“Almost all of Google's successful products are based on a core technology insight that is underneath the whole thing. The type of insight that could be in an academic journal.”
Portals optimized for retention while Google optimized for exit speed
“This is basically why Google beat Yahoo. I mean, there's a lot more to it, but The portals all had this mentality of we want to build more and more and keep people on our site, in our ecosystem, continue to look at our banner ads, and Google, from this point, …”
Page and Brin offered to sell Google to GoTo for $200M
“And Larry and Sergey Before they raised the Sequoia and Kleiner round came to Bill and said, what about two hundred million?”
US healthcare costs are psychological abstractions for patients
“If you're trying to unpack how did our health care become 18% of GDP versus 11% of the UK GDP, or a staggering six percent of Singapore's GDP, albeit at a much smaller scale. Why are we 18%? A big thing you have to understand is, psychologically, every healthc…”
Epic controls which new software innovations can reach hospital physicians
“Epic is kind of the choke point of the industry at this point to decide what software innovations reach hospitals. I don't think it's overstating it to say if you're developing new breakthrough software to be used by physicians in hospital systems, Epic's kind…”
Gilbert: The BCCI banned IPL creator Lalit Modi for life in 2013
“And in 2013, the BCCI bars him from India cricket for life. I mean, this thing that he, like, willed into existence, that he created billions of dollars of value for all these other people, he has been barred from.”
Gilbert: IPL could not have existed without Lalit Modi
“You couldn't have the IPL without Lalit Modi, period.”
Rolex is not true luxury because it prioritizes high-volume revenue
“This is part of my argument that Rolex really isn't luxury at all. They have hit the sweet spot in the market. If you think about a curve, like an X, Y axis, they have found the sweet spot where you can maximize revenue, where you just sell an absolute ton of …”
Gilbert: Rolex's High Quality Stems Directly From Unmatched Scale Economies
“The reason why they truly are among the very highest quality watches in the world is because they throw their scale economies around. They do absolutely unreasonable things to engineer and build and test these watches that other people in the industry just can…”
The Apple Watch launch was highly beneficial for ultra-luxury mechanical watchmakers
“It was the best thing to ever happen to Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek, etc.”
Gilbert: Mechanical Watches Are a Distinct Industry From Timekeeping Devices
“Mechanical watches are an industry today that serves an entirely different job to be done than they ever served in the past. And this is a new industry that has nothing to do with telling the time, and is just goofy to compare to other quote-unquote parts of t…”
Gilbert: $100B fab costs give semiconductor manufacturing natural monopoly characteristics
“Eventually it will cost 40,000,000,080 billion, a hundred billion. How many players are really going to be left standing with the ability to deploy a hundred billion dollars to build a building with some machines in it? This market has natural monopoly charact…”
Moore's Law and Rock's Law mathematically drive semiconductor foundries toward monopoly
“When you combine these two things, the Moore's Law and Moore's Second Law, it implies that the leading company, that most profitable company, will become a monopoly.”
Software lacks the immense moat defensibility of heavy semiconductor manufacturing CapEx
“Even better in the notion that gross margins of software can be 80 to 90%, not 50%, but I would back that down because it doesn't have the sort of moat defensibility characteristics that being able to plow your Capex into manufacturing capability does.”
Gilbert: Only a complete paradigm shift can unseat TSMC
“I think the only thing that will unseat TSMC is a complete paradigm shift.”