Probabilistic Prediction

topic on 1 show · 1 statements across 1 episodes

the Knowledge Project

1 statements about Probabilistic Prediction, every show

Simkin: Probabilistic forecasts cannot be judged wrong unless 0% or 100%
“It's really hard to say anybody's wrong about a single probability prediction, unless they said that something was zero percent or a hundred percent.”
Todd Simkin Sep 7, 2021 ▶ 35:00 #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions

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