Simkin: Probabilistic forecasts cannot be judged wrong unless 0% or 100%
Todd Simkin · #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions · Sep 7, 2021 · at 35:00
Todd Simkin discusses why public critiques of probabilistic forecasts (like Nate Silver's 2016 election model) reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of probability.
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“It's really hard to say anybody's wrong about a single probability prediction, unless they said that something was zero percent or a hundred percent.”
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