probabilistic prediction

1 statements across 1 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Sep 7, 2021 by Todd Simkin · across every show →

Everything said about probabilistic prediction, oldest first

Sep 7, 2021 neutral

Insight

Simkin: Probabilistic forecasts cannot be judged wrong unless 0% or 100%

“It's really hard to say anybody's wrong about a single probability prediction, unless they said that something was zero percent or a hundred percent.”

Todd Simkin Sep 7, 2021 ▶ 35:00 #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions

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probabilistic prediction

Everything said about probabilistic prediction, oldest first

Turn any episode into a week of clips.