The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,812 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 53 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nike Scrapped Pre-Planned 2018 Campaigns to Run Colin Kaepernick Ads
“And in fact, I know that when they launched this, they actually scrapped their plans for the whole rest of the year for a whole bunch of ad campaigns that were already ready for a different way that they were gonna do the 30th anniversary relaunch of Just Do I…”
Ferdinand Porsche Was an SS Member and Hitler Associate
“Ferdinand himself not just was a Nazi, but was a very close personal associate of Adolf Hitler. He was a member of the SS”
In 1978, Porsche Launched the 928 Intending to Replace the 911
“So in 1978, Furman introduces the Porsche nine, 28 with the stated intention that this is going to eventually replace the nine, 11.”
Ferrari Refused Long-Term Battery Support for the Hybrid LaFerrari
“Ferrari has already said that the technology is old, all the plug-in stuff, we don't want to be any part of the LaFerrari.”
Khosrowshahi: Son threatened to invest billions in Lyft if Uber rejected SoftBank
“SoftBank wanted in, and in typical MASA fashion, it was like, hey, if you don't let us invest in you, we're going to invest in that pink company, right?”
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles will take 10 years to become material in transportation
“My instinct is that you will see small scale continued experiments kind of get bigger over the next five years, but it's going to take a good 10 years for it to be a material part of our network or transportation at large. But that's a guess.”
Khosrowshahi: Uber Is the Largest Source of Work in the World
“I think we're the largest source of work anywhere by far, and growing pretty fast.”
Gilbert: Future breakthrough defense innovation won't come from Lockheed's Skunk Works
“It's very likely that the Skunk Works mentality ends up solving more problems for our country, but probably not from the Skunk Works division of Lockheed Martin.”
Rosenthal: Million-view TikToks fail to convert podcast subscribers for Acquired
“We haven't acquired TikTok, we're on YouTube Shorts, we post on Twitter, and like, None of that drives the needle for us. Like, we've had videos on TikTok get a couple million views, and we don't know if it translated to a single new subscriber.”
Ek: AI will drastically lower the software barriers to music composition
“From there on to actually compose something, getting into the ID of the workflows, the plugins, all that kind of concepts, it's quite a lot to master. And I think that's the potential power with something like AI, obviously.”
Daniel Ek: Generative AI will wipe out the creative middle tier
“So my view is you're going to see both extremes. You're going to see the middle getting wiped out. More people participate, but the very, very top is probably going to increase in value as well.”
Ek: The era of artists living solely off recorded music was short
“There was a point in time where the majority of the revenue could be derived from recording music. But the challenge to that, what I would say is that the time in history where that was true was actually very, very short, right?”
Lasky: Nintendo engineered artificial Black Friday scarcity to create retail panic
“They were very clever about only releasing a limited amount of inventory for Black Friday, and then the parents would go because that was on the kids Christmas list, and they would go to buy the disc and it, and they would be sold out and panic would ensue. An…”
Lasky: Nintendo is about to meaningfully expand its app store business
“I think the next one to go is going to be Nintendo, right? I think they're, I think that's, if you're looking for a reason to invest in Nintendo as a company, it's, I think they're about to crack that nut, right? And enter the app store business in a meaningfu…”
Lasky: Early Riot Games acquired DotA community websites to redirect player demand
“We bought the websites that we bought the Defense of the Ancients websites and just turned their editorial to-”
Gilbert: Gaming revenue historically surpassed Hollywood and TV including arcade coin drops
“I was shocked to learn that the gaming industry has always been larger than TV and Hollywood, if you include the total coin drop in arcades, and I always just thought this was this new phenomenon of like, wow, video games have become so much a part of the fabr…”
Lasky: AI will not easily generate complete, satisfying video games from prompts
“There's a train of thought that, that has been advanced that, oh wow, this is really going to democratize the game industry in, in a way where now, kind of like you're seeing with mid journey, for example, where you can just describe a piece of art and it magi…”
Robbins: UGC platforms like Roblox will capture the most value from AI assets
“Maybe like a working theory that I have is the UGC platforms like the Fortnite creatives or the core or the Roblox's of the world might actually be the ones that accrue the most value in this AI asset generation time where, you know, if you can spin up these t…”
The NFL Is the Single Largest Media Property in the World
“It's that the NFL is the single largest media property by value, and the funny thing is, if you go look at the, because we did this for the Nintendo episode, you go look at the largest media Media properties. They list Mario, they list Pokemon, and they, and t…”
Thompson: Apple University was driven by Tim Cook, not Steve Jobs
“What is interesting is it was written a lot about as this sort of Steve jobs initiative and, you know, I'm sure he okayed it, but he had basically no involvement at all. Tim cook was very heavily involved.”
The SEC let Enron recognize 20 years of future cash flows immediately
“The SEC allowed them to go out to 20 years that they could collapse into today revenue.”
Ken Lay's wife dumped 500,000 shares minutes before Enron's bailout deal collapsed
“At 10:20 a.m., 10 minutes before the news comes out, Ken Lay's wife sells 500,000 shares of Enron stock that the Kenan whatever her name is, that the Lay Family Foundation held.”
Gilbert: Enron's Rebecca Mark Sold $83M in Stock Without Charges
“She sold about eighty-three million dollars of stock. She actually got out early enough, and she was sort of cast out by the male executives at the top in a way where she was actually never accused of any wrongdoing and never really a part of the prosecution o…”
Qualcomm's Best Days Are Behind It If It Remains Only Handsets
“I think if they continue to try to run the same playbook in just the handset market that they have been, the best days are behind them because people have caught onto their games a little bit and are gonna, gonna squeeze them from a bunch of different directio…”
Fenton: Benchmark probably won't be around in 30 years
“Benchmark probably isn't going to be around in 30 years.”
Fenton: Docker's valuation plummeted from $1.5B to zero, stranding Benchmark
“So last time I did an all hands meeting at Docker was three years ago, and there were 60 employees that, that we'd spun out of the prior company, and the valuation was zero. So we'd gone from over a 1,000,000,004, 1,000,005 to zero, and I was working with some…”
Calacanis: My syndicate is the world's largest, deploying $50M annually
“The angel syndicate is now the largest syndicate in the world. I've deployed, like, one hundred eighty-five million dollars in my career as an angel investor. I'm doing fifty million a year now.”
Rosenthal: The best venture GPs over two decades all trade public stocks
“If you look at the very best People, the best GPs in venture over the past two decades, they all trade public stocks.”
Benchmark refuses fund scaling, junior partners, platform teams, and CRM software
“Benchmark famously believes that venture capital doesn't scale. They have zigged when others have zagged. They have not grown their fun size. They haven't tried junior partners. They don't have a platform team. They are not multi-stage. And I've heard they don…”
Stanford's endowment blackballed Benchmark's Fund I over its 30% carry demand
“Literally almost all of these folks who are starting Benchmark, they get so angry that not only do they not invest in the fund, they start organizing against this young benchmark capital. They call up all of their peers, the other university endowments across …”
Benchmark structured $1.5 million in founder loans to win the eBay deal
“It was also reported by the Washington Post after the IPO of eBay that Benchmark had also structured Equity-backed loans to Pierre and Jeff in the amount of 750,000 dollars each as a way to, like, prevent them essentially, give them an incentive not to take th…”
Rosenthal: AWS was built to scale, not to monetize excess seasonal capacity
“The excess capacity story is a myth. It was never a matter of selling excess capacity. Actually, within two months after launch, AWS would have already burned through the excess amazon.com capacity. Amazon Web Services was always considered a business by itsel…”
Rosenthal: Amazon's engineering team in Cape Town built the original EC2
“That becomes EC two. It's that team in South Africa that builds EC two.”
Gilbert: AWS generates over 90% gross margins on bandwidth charges
“AWS makes 90 plus percent gross margins on their bandwidth charges.”
College athletics will go fully professional without congressional intervention
“To me, the model is in a place where if Congress doesn't step in and find some sort of way to stabilize this, the whole thing will probably just go professional”
Professionalized college sports will force schools to eliminate non-revenue sports
“In that world, the way most schools would react, I suspect, is they would cut every single sport that doesn't make money, except for the ones they would have to keep for Title IX purposes, and so these athletic departments would shrink dramatically.”
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them.
No doubt about it.”
Gilbert: Internet barbell dynamics will squeeze the middle in every industry
“I don't think this is unique to media. I think media was the first to experience this sort of squishing in the middle, but it's gonna happen to everything.”
Boyle: Every venture capital firm will have an American Dynamism practice
“I think if we do our jobs right and we invest in the companies that we're intending to invest in and we tell the story, right? I think every venture capital firm will have an American dynamism practice.”
Weber: Track Officials Ejected Brooks Execs From 2012 Olympic Trials
“They kicked me out, our head of marketing, and our head of sports marketing.”
Gerstner (in 2022): Snowflake can reach a $500B valuation by 2029
“I think this company can be worth over five hundred billion dollars over the course of the next five to seven years.”
Gerstner: Competition in venture capital will compress average returns while concentrating elite gains
“Like, what do I expect that, you know, will happen over the full arc of time in venture, right? We're going to compete away returns. We've already witnessed it over the course of the last couple years, right? But that just means the returns that go to the prem…”
Gerstner: Seeding investment accounts for every newborn would cost under $20B/year
“It doesn't cost a lot of money, right? In the scheme of things like this is less than twenty billion dollars a year for the federal government.”
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”
Eich: Google Chrome Changed in 2018 to Auto-Sign In Users for Ad Tracking
“In 2018 September, Google said, gosh darn it, people aren't signing into the browser enough. We're going to just do it whenever you sign in to Gmail or YouTube in a tab. We'll just sign you in across all the tabs and we'll track you.”
John Foley sold $96M of Peloton stock near its 2021 peak
“John Foley sold ninety six million dollars of Peloton stock in 2021 when the price was really high and he was talking about what a strong future the company still had in front of it.”
Ithaca Holdings Sold Taylor Swift's Catalog to Shamrock for $300 Million
“Big Machine, the operating company, all the other masters of other artists, they have everything that stays with Ithaca Holdings. They sell only the Taylor masters to a private equity firm for about three hundred million dollars. So about the same price that t…”