The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,336 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rogers: EU investigation into X culminated in 120 million euro fine
“Then, in the same letter, Breton makes reference to another ongoing investigation against X that ostensibly they say had nothing to do with speech. This is the investigation that recently culminated in a hundred and twenty million euro fine.”
Horowitz: Around $450B was stolen during US COVID stimulus programs
“When we did the stimulus program, we found out that the government is very bad at getting money to people. I don't know, it's like, depending on the numbers you read, it's somewhere around four hundred and fifty billion dollars got stolen.”
Blania: World splits iris data across servers to avoid central databases
“And how we approach that is we have multi-party computation. And so that essentially means that, so in our case, when you verify with an orb. You know, we take all these pictures they get computed on the device, and then they actually get split up in multiple …”
Blania: Social platforms will fail attempting phone face biometrics for human verification
“My guess is over the next couple months, we will see things like these platforms trying to use things like face biometrics on the phone, which, you know, I know it will break, so it's fine, but I think we'll go through that cycle now.”
Horowitz: $400 billion was stolen from COVID stimulus programs
“I mean, well, just, if you go back to COVID, the stimulus program, like I think four hundred billion dollars was stolen.”
Haber: Block executed a 40% workforce reduction driven by AI
“And recently Block executed a roughly 40% reduction in force. And they've been pretty candid about AI being a critical component of that decision.”
Mendler: The U.S. government has launched satellite missions without ground plans
“Literally there have been a bunch of missions that have been launched with no ground plan.”
Sankar: China now hosts 50% of all global clinical trials
“We used to think Wuxi was just some cheap set of pipetting arms for contract pharmaceutical research, and now, 50% of all clinical trials are being done in China.”
Sankar: Europe created zero €100B companies from scratch in 50 years
“Europe has created exactly zero companies from scratch in the last 50 years worth more than a hundred billion euro. We have created all of our trillion dollar companies from scratch in America in the last 50 years.”
Transformers compute precise Bayesian posteriors down to 10^-3 bits accuracy
“We trained these models and we found that the transformer got the precise Bayesian posterior down to 10 to the power minus three bits accuracy. It was matching the distribution perfectly. So it is actually doing Bayesian in the mathematical sense, given a task…”
Transformers perform all Bayesian tasks, Mamba does most, and MLPs fail
“Transformer does everything. Mamba does most of it. LSTMs do only partially, and MLPs fail completely.”
Ulevitch: Project Maven Was Used During Afghanistan Evacuation
“Project Maven was used to make sure that we didn't leave anyone behind in Afghanistan.”
Michael: Google transitioned from avoiding defense work to top government partner
“Google didn't want to bid on the contract. Now Google is a great partner, you know, and so I'd hope some of the newer companies would learn from what Google did, which is, you know, they didn't want to serve the government because that employee mob issues, but…”
Huberman: Clinical trials show infusions of exercised blood provide health benefits
“We know that infusion, blood infusions are beneficial. There's been a clinical trial for this. We know that Blood infusions of exercise blood are even more beneficial.”
Huberman warns Melanotan use risks priapism and permanent nerve damage
“And there's a risk for men of pre-epism, which, you know, the last erection you may ever have, it might last eight hours, but that might be the last one you ever, it can cause damage to the nerves and penile tissue”
Magic Johnson: Dodgers generate highest revenue in Major League Baseball history
“We're making money that no major league baseball team has ever made on revenues.”
Mares: Average US child gets less outdoor time than a prison inmate
“The average child spends less time outside than, like, a maximum security prison where people are spending eight plus hours on phone.”
Mares: Average American gets almost 20% of calories from soybean oil
“Today, the average American gets almost 20% of their caloric intake from soybean oil.”
Mares: No US healthcare payer covers exercise for heart disease prevention
“And yet, if you look at our healthcare system, nothing in the healthcare system thinks about someone who is at risk of heart disease exercising as a healthcare intervention. No payer pays for it. No one incentivizes you to do that.”
Mares: US permits 60,000 to 80,000 chemical compounds banned in EU
“And the end result is we have between like 60 and 80,000 chemical compounds in the U.S. That are not allowed in, in the EU.”
Mares: 80% of US schools hold contracts with soda companies
“80% of schools have contracts with soda companies.”
Mares: Lifestyle and functional medicine interventions outperform talk therapy for depression
“There have been studies that show just by focusing and taking a functional medicine approach, you know, focusing on sleep, focusing on gut health, focusing on lowering your inflammation through diet and exercise, that combination of therapies works better than…”
Mares: Big food outfunded the NIH 11-to-1 on nutrition science research
“Most of nutrition science is funded by a big food company. They outfund the NIH, like, 11 to one on nutrition science, at least historically.”
Mares: Ketamine therapy works better than SSRIs for severe depression and PTSD
“Ketamine therapy, ketamine assisted therapy works better than SSRIs in many cases, especially for treating things that are very intense, like treatment resistant depression, PTSD, things like this.”
Mares: Monsanto spent tens of millions lobbying for glyphosate liability shield
“A couple months ago Monsanto was lobbying hard, spent tens of millions of dollars to get a rider and a bill that would basically make sure that no one could ever sue them for the potential health impacts of one of their most popular products, glyphosate.”
Mares: $14B in legal damages awarded over glyphosate health exposure
“There's been fourteen billion dollars of damages awarded to people that have gotten cancer or other diseases from glyphosate exposure.”
Horowitz: a16z captured 18.3% of all US venture capital in 2025
“And so this last year, 25, about 18 point, what is it, 18.3% of all venture capital raised in the U.S. Was raised by us.”
Rampell: Ramp data shows enterprise AI spending spiked in January 2025
“We're seeing the exact opposite, and I'll show two things. So there's a company called Ramp and they are kind of credit card expense management products, and you see this giant tick up in January of twenty-twenty-five”
Rampell: 15 percent of global adults use ChatGPT weekly
“Something like 15% of adults on planet Earth now use ChatGPT every single week.”
Andreessen: The EU AI Act has largely killed AI development in Europe
“The EU passed this bill called the AI Act, I don't know, whatever, two years ago, and it basically has killed AI development, and, well, it's actually killed AI development in Europe to a large extent and then it even, it is so draconian that even, Even big Am…”
Andreessen: AI Costs Are Falling Much Faster Than Moore's Law
“If you look at what's happening with, ah, the price of AI is falling much faster than Moore's Law.”
Moore: Perplexity Comet browser launch traffic surpassed ChatGPT Atlas
“If you look at the data, like the spike at launch and the sustained traffic for Comet was actually much higher than for ChatGBT's own browser launch, Atlas, which is kind of crazy given how much more distribution ChatGBT has than Perplexity.”
Langley: Most homicides are now random drug or gang incidents
“The majority of crime was domestic. You would kill a partner, you would kill a girlfriend or boyfriend, so it was it was a not randomized crime. Now the majority of homicides are random. It is a drug deal gone, gone wrong. It is a gang rivalry over territory. …”
Horowitz: 98% of crime victims are poor people
“Crimes are committed, like, 98% against poor people. Like, that is who are the victims of crime.”
Horowitz: Murderers have a 53% chance of getting away with it
“For murder. You have a 53% chance of getting away with murder.”
Horowitz: Las Vegas Hope for Prisoners program has near-zero recidivism
“The Vegas prosecutor will, if you're like an eighteen-year-old kid, and you commit a first-time offense, and it's not violent, they'll send you, they won't prosecute you, they'll send you to Hope for Prisoners, and you go through the rehab. They are close to z…”
Evans: On-device AI models will fail as capability gains outpace compression
“Will we have small models running on devices? No, because the small models, the capabilities are moving too fast for the small models to shrink the small model onto the device.”
Evans: OpenAI's Deep Research marketing case used inaccurate mobile data
“OpenAI launched Deep Research. Their whole marketing case is it goes off and collects data about the mobile market. I used to be a mobile analyst. The numbers are all wrong. Their use case of look how useful this is, their numbers are wrong.”
Evans: Claude has virtually no consumer usage despite top benchmark scores
“It's basically, the only consumer, Claude has basically no consumer usage, even though on the benchmark score it's the same. And then it's ChatGPT, and then halfway down the chart, it's Meta and Google.”
Evans: Any entity spending billions can acquire a frontier AI model
“There's going to be anybody who can spend a couple of hundred, you know, can spend a couple of billion dollars can have a frontier model.”
Sherman Wu: ChatGPT has reached 800 million weekly active users
“The first party app is a really great way to get, you know it was like eight hundred million wows or whatever now.”
Diane Greene was ousted from Google over an innocent satellite contract
“Diane Greene was ousted from Google for like a very innocent contract who'd look at pictures, I mean, satellites, right?”
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Epoch AI: No slowdown in AI capabilities has been observed yet
“Yeah, I don't, I definitely don't think we've seen any slowdown yet in capabilities from any of these concerns people have.”
Boyle: China Expanded Its Industrial Base Supplying Both Sides in Ukraine
“China has been supplying both sides of that war. When you look at sort of the drone warfare that is, that has come out of the trenches for the last three years, You know, China is a supplier in the same way that Russia is a supplier to its own side, but that m…”
Rampell: Bay Area housing prices declined massively when priced in tech stocks
“There's a piece that we wrote a little while ago showing that the price of housing in the Bay Area has declined massively in the past 25 years. If you're like, no, no, it hasn't. It's gone off. If you price it in Apple stock and Google stock, right?”
Adam D'Angelo: LLMs are substituting for entry-level computer science jobs
“CS majors graduating from college, there's just not as many jobs as there used to be, and LLMs are a little more substitutable for what they previously would have done, and I'm sure that's contributing to it.”
Amjad Masad: Claude 4.5 shows awareness of context limits and red-team testing
“Quad 4.5 seemed to have to become more aware of its context length. So as it gets closer to the end of the context, it starts becoming more economical with tokens. It also, it looks like its awareness when it's being red teamed or in test environment, like jum…”