The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 180 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 25 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nvidia Conceals Massive Chip Field Failure Rates to Keep Customers Waiting
“You don't talk about the field failure rate of your products, which are massive. Rather you sort of keep talking about the future in an effort to convince people to wait, to make a good decision rather than go with technology that's, that that's better and pre…”
Lemkin: Nvidia will reach $10 trillion cumulative bookings in 5-7 years
“I think there's a high degree of confidence that most of the roads lead back to Nvidia reaching 10 trillion of cumulative, cumulative bookings over the next five to seven years.”
Siemiatkowski: AI enterprise compression could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA chips
“Well, that would mean that you would leave mean significant, you would need significantly less.”
Ross: Nvidia will be worth $10 trillion in five years
“I personally would be surprised if in five years NVIDIA wasn't worth 10 trillion, but I can't predict the outcome.”
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Lemkin: Open-source AI models will bypass Nvidia's CUDA platform
“He's got to go frontier and open and open is dangerous. Open doesn't need CUDA. Open is cheaper and it's lower margins. Open will bypass him, but he's got it.”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia Has Tapped Out Cash-Rich Buyers And Must Subsidize Growth
“We've reached a point where the number of good customers who can pay cash and have a big balance sheet is tapping out. So you got to find more customers to keep the growth going. And to do that, you got to subsidize them.”
US government owns 10% of Intel, Nvidia and SoftBank 5% each
“American government owns 10% of Intel. Nvidia and SoftBank own five percent each.”
Feldman claims Nvidia funds neoclouds to create competitors for traditional hyperscalers
“I think it has been NVIDIA's strategy to try and create competitors for the traditional hyperscalers. They have funded and backstopped and over allocated to the neoclouds. They have created a dependence, which is probably not healthy.”
Jason Lemkin: Seamless switching between TPUs and GPUs undercuts Nvidia's moat
“The idea that NVIDIA is unstoppable because of the software and hardware connection, because we have to have GPUs. I know there's a lot of truth to that, but literally as an end user, I went right back and forth to them today. No, no issue. TPUs, GPUs, LLMs, a…”
Tunguz: Nvidia revenue concentration is 10x worse than Lucent during dot-com bubble
“So Nvidia, two customers for Nvidia represent more than 40% of revenues. Four percent represent more than 50% of revenues. I went back and looked at the dot-com era, the networking companies. NVIDIA is 10 times more concentrated in terms of revenue than Lucent…”
Andrew Ng: US chip export controls have backfired and accelerated Chinese innovation
“I think the export control on chips has largely backfired. The way that the US and I think that the way the US first put restrictions on Huawei and then later on, you know, exported NVIDIA and AMD and other semiconductors that really incentivized China. So bef…”
In AI Inference, Nobody Cares About Nvidia's CUDA or PyTorch
“In inference, the truth is, nobody cares about CUDA. Nobody even cares about PyTorch. All right. What they want is an API.”
Feldman: Cerebras chips are faster than Nvidia at both training and inference
“No, we're faster on both, but the software challenges In training are real.”
Ross: NVIDIA's software moat applies to training, not inference
“That NVIDIA's software is a moat. Yeah it's true for training, but it's not true for inference.”
Ross: NVIDIA will produce ~5.5M GPUs this year despite 50M die capacity
“If Nvidia wanted to, they could build fifty million of those GPU die, Per year. But they're going to build about 5.5 million GPUs this year.”
O'Driscoll: $4T AI infrastructure investment requires impossible $800B annual profit
“Four, let's do four billion dollars. You want a 20% return on equity. You gotta be generating eight hundred billion of profit a year. That's a lot of profit when, you know, Facebook met, all these guys make a couple hundred billion a year, right? So you've got…”
Mohan: CUDA is not Nvidia's real competitive moat
“Even a company like NVIDIA, I think everyone outside looking in is like, CUDA is the real moat. Or something like that. I think that's just inaccurate, right?”
Boland: Jensen Huang publicly berates NVIDIA staff to force improvements
“So he will tear people apart in public on stuff that they've not got command of, or he thinks they're wrong about, and he will, like, rip them to shreds, and leave them whimpering in the corner to lick their wounds but I think he then sort of forgets it and ho…”
Morin: Google TPUs have more mature software and compute than Nvidia
“But AMD can do training, but it's also, but in terms of maturity, the, by far the most mature software and compute is TPUs, and then it's Nvidia.”
Morin: Nvidia is far from the most efficient AI hardware platform
“But it's by far not the most efficient platform. And arguably, even in terms of software, it's not the best software platform.”
Morin: Nvidia may lose market dominance in AI inference and training
“I think that there's a shot that they don't.”
Ross: Groq benefits NVIDIA by capturing lower-margin inference workload
“You can almost say we're one of the best things that's ever happened to NVIDIA because they can make every single GPU that they were going to make, and they can sell it for training, high margin, gets amortized across deployment. You know, we'll take the low m…”
Ross: NVIDIA used misleading benchmark curves to claim 30x GPU speedup
“Like, if you look at the last GTC, there was an announcement that the latest GPUs were 30 x faster than the previous generation. And when you look at how it was done, there was this curve that looked kind of like this, and then it Basically ended here, and the…”
Ross: Specialized AI inference chip startups benefit NVIDIA's stock
“I don't know that Nvidia will ever see it this way, but I do think that those of us focusing on inference and building stuff specifically for that are probably the best thing that's ever happened for Nvidia stock because we'll take on the low margin, high volu…”
Khachab: Europe should subsidize TSMC and NVIDIA instead of Intel
“First of all, Intel is the wrong company to fund. So the first step you ask me is like, put it to the right company. Put it to Taiwan Semiconductor. Put it to NVIDIA. People that can actually produce GPUs.”
Wang: SCGE goes long Nvidia and shorts moatless server hardware stocks
“We can go long NVIDIA and then we can short a bunch of the companies that I think don't have the depth of modes that NVIDIA has.”
Hartz: Nvidia's valuation is a precursor to the bubble of all bubbles
“NVIDIA becoming the most valuable company on the planet is just the precursor towards the bubble of all bubbles.”
Eisenberg: US Nvidia chip bans have not meaningfully slowed China's AI
“The U.S. Put a banner on Nvidia chips going to China. I don't sense that it slowed China down in a meaningful way.”
Lehmann: Screenless dedicated AI inference computers will be in every home
“I think when it comes to AI and personal AI, we may be at a moment in time where there is an opportunity for a new computer, a new type of computer that we may see in every home. A computer that runs your own personal AI on a chip that does not have to be as p…”
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
O'Driscoll alleges Poolside effectively cashed out via Nvidia product license
“A few weeks ago, Poolside effectively didn't, they would deny that they sold, but they sold a license for their product to NVIDIA, which was an open weight enterprise US focused model, and they, you know, the company still exists, but they cashed out quite a l…”
Weitzman: NVIDIA guarantees 25% GPU buybacks with Wall Street lenders
“So I believe earlier this month, NVIDIA did a huge deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs. And they said, listen, we want more people to buy more GPUs. We're going to underwrite for you up to 25% the value of a GPU. That if you lend money t…”
Weitzman: Renting an H100 GPU costs 1.5 times more than buying it
“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”
Lemkin: Nvidia Paying $12.9B for Hugging Face Is Defensible to Control Market
“All, whatever LLM, whatever inference is, he's committed to winning a majority stake, 70%, 80% of every dollar here, and so 12.9 is, you know, no way I think it's worth it in isolation, but if it helps reinforce that, it's utterly defensible.”
O'Driscoll: Open-Source AI Benefits GPU Vendors by Compressing Software Margins
“Open source is good for compute salespeople. If you're selling GPUs, you want everyone else's margin to be lower, so yours can be higher.”
O'Driscoll: Probability of Nvidia Missing Near-Term Earnings Is Zero
“The demand for their product is such that they're entirely supply constrained, so the probability of a near-end miss is plus or minus zero, right?”
Reyes: Nvidia will likely hit a $10 trillion market cap within three years
“I think that there's a real serious chance that if we let SpaceX Be worth two or three trillion, then NVIDIA probably is worth 10. And so I think that the answer's likely yes.”
Frankel: Photonic Computing Will Disrupt or Be Acquired by Nvidia Within a Decade
“In my view, if you say in 10 years time, and I am not a thematic investor, but I am such a deep believer in
The status quo being changed always, and not, and like nothing stays the same.
I think photonic computing is coming down the line, and I think that's go…”
Angelopoulos: Enterprise AI adoption will 10X Nvidia reliably
“But I think the enterprise adoption of AI is going to be another 10 Xer for the industry. I think it'll 10 X NVIDIA very reliably.”
Angelopoulos: Nvidia is probably leading the race to a $10T valuation
“I think it's hard to say not NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA is probably in the lead there.”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia Recognizes Hardware Revenue Upfront Under ASC 606 With Put-Back Rights
“They're basically, quote, selling you the chips up front, so they are going to recognize that hardware revenue up front, and then they're giving you, as the buyer, the NeoCloud, a backstop that if you can't use that compute, you get kind of put back rights on …”
Lemkin: Nvidia would build custom chips for OpenAI if requested
“The only thing that makes zero sense to me is the argument that, hey, at OpenAI, we need to build our own our own chips because we have very specialized needs that NVIDIA can't meet. I have a little bit of experience in the semiconductor industry. If you're dr…”
O'Driscoll: Slowing Compute Demand Will Force Nvidia To Debook Prior Revenue
“And if that slows down and there's excess capacity, these deals will look horrible because you'll not just not be, if you're Nvidia, you'll not just be not growing quickly. You'll be debooking prior revenue. You'll be kind of taking, you know, you'll be taking…”
Foody: NVIDIA will lose its monopoly in five years but remain most valuable
“And so I would guess that in five years, it doesn't feel like Nvidia has quite the same monopoly, but that's okay, because even if they only have 30 or 40% market share in the largest market in the world by far, that is the world's most valuable company.”
O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $50B Quarterly Profit Makes It World's Most Profitable
“It's the 50 something billion in profits, which makes it the most profitable company on the planet, because typically Google clocks in around a hundred to a hundred and twenty billion now a year. Right? These guys, in a quarter, made fifty billion plus, fifty-…”