why aren't all 77 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Lemkin: Fire employees who brag about team size on LinkedIn
“Anyone on LinkedIn that talks about their team, fire them. My team this. They're all so precious about their team. Lead from the effin' front with AI.”
Opinion
Rabois: LinkedIn developed a mediocre culture because early engineers wanted 35-hour weeks
“Yeah, we didn't have an Olympic work ethic. We had a bunch of French engineers that wanted to work 35 hours a week. At the time, In 2003 to five, when the company was really founded, most people thought the internet was dead, so we didn't, Reid Hoffman, who fo…”
What-if
Rabois: LinkedIn should have been more valuable than Facebook
“LinkedIn by any measure was Yeah, pretty successful. Certainly impact, you know, acquisition, twenty four billion or so. Truthfully, probably hit somewhere between five and 20% of its, you know, potential because it didn't do some of these things. Like, I, in …”
Insight
O'Driscoll: No scaled business is built on scraping LinkedIn or Google
“The LinkedIn scraping in the end, no business at scale ever gets built on that, and no business at scale ever gets built on breaking Google's terms of service.”
Insight
Harries: Organic LinkedIn is today's most underappreciated tech growth channel
“The most underappreciated growth channel I see is organic LinkedIn. On Twitter, you're competing against the best writers in the world. You're competing against Harry Stebbings running shorts. Yeah, Bill Ackman. Like, it's really tough. On LinkedIn, you're com…”
Insight
Jason Lemkin: LPs bragging on LinkedIn signals peak market froth
“The frothiest sign is now LinkedIn LPs are bragging about their returns on LinkedIn LPs. When LPs are start bragging about their returns to me that that's the most, 20, 21 moment I've seen when LPs are LPs who are usually hide behind the wizard of Oz curtain a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: LinkedIn intentionally curtailed record viral feed growth to prioritize quality
“We made a core decision to curtail growth even at the expense of engagement that we've never seen at LinkedIn growing at such record levels to make sure we go back to the drawing board and we focus on trust and quality.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Conrad: Non-Rippling companies employ double the HR, IT, and finance staff
“At almost every stage of growth, you know, companies between zero to 25 employees, companies, you know, like between 500 and a thousand employees, they have almost double the number of people in HR, IT, and finance for companies that don't use Rippling than co…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Minshew: Microsoft acquiring LinkedIn opens competitive room for The Muse
“I think that, that the Microsoft acquisition does have Shareholder value, and there's some interesting synergies, but if anything, I believe it will pull LinkedIn a direction that opens up even more space for us to really focus on the experience of an individu…”
Insight
Lemkin: Bringing in external executives during corporate turmoil fails 70% of the time
“In my experience, I don't know what you guys think. In my experience, that has about a 30% chance of success. Just roughly. That bringing in the big, the perfect LinkedIn, giving them a massive portfolio and either attaching them to, and attaching to this some…”
Disclosure
Verna: Former large tech employers penalized her for LinkedIn activity
“I have a reasonable LinkedIn following and I've been penalized for it in the larger companies. Like they were like, absolutely no, don't post. Delete the post. This is not good. I, we want to we want to prove anything that you post on social.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: A Single LinkedIn Post Generated $4M in Revenue for Fixer
“I posted about them on LinkedIn, and they got four million in revenue from one LinkedIn post.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moubeche: Lempire reaches 10M LinkedIn users quarterly organically
“Right now, like, just to give you an example, we reach about like, ten million people every quarter on LinkedIn without spending a single dollar on ads, just through like our networks. And that's like That's like millions of dollars in revenue every year.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cold email and LinkedIn sales outbound no longer work
“Like what I'm being told, and again, I don't do it, but the feedback I get is emails, LinkedIn simply doesn't work. It just, it, there's too much of it.”
Disclosure
Index Ventures missed investing in Spotify, Snap, Airbnb, and LinkedIn
“One is Spotify, another one is Snap, another one's Airbnb, another one's LinkedIn. Those are the four that we had real opportunity in some fashion or another to manufacture the opportunity for Index to be in the round, and we failed for different reasons.”
Disclosure
Zaparde: Zip Acquired Its First 10 Customers Exclusively Via Cold LinkedIn Outreach
“We decided, Hey, we don't want to like, look at the end of the day, if we pick an idea, we're going to work on it more than anybody else. Like we don't want to waste our own time. So what we're going to do is this. We're gonna make sure that the first 10 custo…”
Assertion Supported
Quattrone: Salesforce submitted higher unsolicited bids during LinkedIn's exclusivity window with Microsoft
“So they went into like a 30 day exclusivity to try to get to definitive agreement. And during that period, Salesforce lobbed in Several offers that were higher. And that meant that towards the end of that period, we had to inform Microsoft, Hey, your deal is n…”
Assertion Supported
Quattrone: Microsoft and Salesforce submitted nearly identical bids at every stage for LinkedIn
“With LinkedIn, we had interest from several parties, but it really kind of came down to Microsoft and Salesforce. And I've never seen companies bid privately and come up with such close prices on every stage Like, 151 151 162 163. It was very, very close, and …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gonto: Early growth at Slack and LinkedIn was not driven by growth loop frameworks
“When you go to the leaders in Slack and LinkedIn at those times, they will tell you they will not, they were not implementing growth loops. They didn't know what a growth loop was. They were trying to find creative ways to get other users and other people to c…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Cohen: Global job skillsets will change by at least 65% by 2030
“By twenty-thirty, they're going to change by at least 65%.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Job skillsets changed by 25% over the past five years
“The skillset necessary to do a job changed by 25% in the last five to six years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: LinkedIn is using LLMs to create interfaces that morph to users
“One thing that we're already underway for us is to really take away the complexity and solve it with the idea of bringing in more of this new large language models, and in general, this new brain that can exceed on top of it. So instead of adding more features…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Massive startup innovation will emerge in AI model routing tiers
“If I think of like why I would expect to see some massive innovation and startups to show up, it's in this tier to really allow people to leverage multiple models at multiple call centers and resources and efficiencies, and then completely mask it from the dev…”
Insight
Cohen: B2B purchasing is highly emotional and stressful, not just feature-based
“When you buy a B to B product, it's actually a highly emotional, stressful job, because if you're going to buy a widget for a company, for your company, that's going to cost 50,000 dollars, a 100,000 dollars, a million dollars, and it's going to take months to…”
Assertion Contradicted
Cohen: LinkedIn is growing at its fastest pace in 20 years
“We're growing the fastest we ever grew right now.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Cohen: Job skill requirements will change by 50% in five years
“You look at it five years ahead, they're going to be 50% different.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: LinkedIn Stories failed because users want permanent professional content
“When we did follow-up sessions with members after that, it was clear that we completely misunderstood the job to be done for creators on LinkedIn. It wasn't about wanting things to disappear. It was almost like the opposite. People wanted things to last on Lin…”
Assertion Partly supported
Cohen: Job skill requirements changed 25% over five years
“If you look at the skill set you needed for a job today versus five years ago, that has changed by 25%.”
Insight
Vivas: LinkedIn's Job Hierarchy Stifled Junior Employees' Correct Ideas
“One thing I observed when I worked at LinkedIn was if a director said something and an associate was in the room, the director was always right, But the associate often was the one who was right, but just because the more senior person was the one who said som…”
Disclosure
Wilkinson: Tiny's remote job board is a feature vulnerable to LinkedIn
“We also own the remote job board business. I have no idea how long that'll exist because LinkedIn can easily come along and start adding remote jobs as a feature. And at the end of the day, our business is kind of a feature, not a product.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: 90% of target CEOs respond to his LinkedIn messages
“One of our portfolio companies, the CRO, comes in every month, and gives me, like, the top 10 targets, and I just go with them to the CEOs on LinkedIn. I have a blue check mark and lots of followers on LinkedIn. Challenge shit on LinkedIn. Nine out of 10 respo…”
Opinion
Omer Shai says LinkedIn and TikTok present enormous marketing arbitrage opportunities
“Also LinkedIn. I think LinkedIn potential is enormous. The arbitrage, again, is there. The targeting is not perfect as an other solution yet, but I believe that those two are having tons of opportunity for us.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moubeche: Can draft 15 to 20 LinkedIn posts per hour
“Whenever I'm writing like a LinkedIn post, I can write maybe like I don't know, 15 or 20 posts in an hour.”
Insight
TikTok Is Content Distribution, Not an Explicit Social Graph
“Now, it's a social network, you know, as much as there's people, there's individuals who are creating stuff that's being consumed by other individuals, but it's not a social network in that, you know, I'm connected to my friend Harry, you know, on LinkedIn.”
Insight
All Hyper-Growth Startups Are Chaotic Hot Messes
“Having done this at PayPal, having done this at LinkedIn, having done this at Airbnb, having done, like all of this stuff, it's always a chaotic hot mess.”
Insight
Cohen: AI-first product design requires relinquishing control over user experience
“When you think in an AI first principle kind of way, You're really unleashing the idea of control. What happens basically in AI is you don't control the experience anymore.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: LinkedIn will not hire product leaders lacking AI willingness and aptitude
“I would not hire you to my org if you're, if you don't have the willingness and the aptitude to go deep.”
Insight
Cohen: A product leader's primary job is defining algorithm objectives
“My opinion as a product leader or a designer or an engineer or a product manager, like data is literally at your second most important job in your role. It's understanding how do you basically start to infuse all of data collection and make sure it's high qual…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: 50% of early LinkedIn creators got commercial inquiries within a month
“We had a creator. It actually started with some early creators and we found that 50% of them in the span of a month after creating on LinkedIn, we're getting reached out to people saying, Hey, maybe you can do a session with my team, do a workshop on your craf…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tomer Cohen: Talent hiring has historically favored pedigree over measurable skills
“Talent marketplace has been built on pedigree and experience and not necessarily on the skillset you have, because that was not easy to measure.”
Insight
Cohen: Define success metrics before building, not retroactively post-launch
“I always like to start with before you launch, before you even start building, what is success? Like, you know, once you launch it, what should be going up into the rights that should be excited about? Don't tell me in retrospect because, you know, then you're…”
Insight
Cohen: Resolving team disagreements quickly requires a single designated decision-maker
“Whenever there is an escalation or a disagreement, we try to solve it really quickly with one person. It's a person on the team. It's always a person that has the decision On how to resolve the situation.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: LinkedIn's annual revenue more than tripled over six years
“Revenue for LinkedIn more than tripled.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: LinkedIn does not offer revenue sharing to content creators
“We don't do ref share. Your opportunity of LinkedIn is your voice. It's what you create. It's your reputation. It's your brand.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: LinkedIn's 'follow' feature is growing 200% year-over-year
“Actually, follows right now is one of the most impressive growth trajectories at LinkedIn. It's growing at 200% year over year.”
Insight
Startups with network effects should hire growth talent earlier to engineer loops
“If your product has a social collaboration, network effect, that kind of thing, think about Slack, LinkedIn, right, or anything like, or Airtable, Figma, hiring for growth early on, a little bit earlier, will allow you to engineering those growth loops into th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schuck: ZoomInfo sales reps currently have seven recruiting offers on LinkedIn
“Any of my salespeople have seven recruiting offers in their LinkedIn in mail today.”
Opinion
Facebook, Pinterest, and LinkedIn are the premier tech growth talent pools
“In general, I think people at Facebook, Pinterest, LinkedIn, a few other companies maybe, like, really do know growth. They know how to run these successive experiments. So all those companies, I think, have, like, really great growth culture where people have…”