The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 152 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Harries: Apple marketing unreleased Apple Intelligence features is bad growth strategy
“The thing I'd most like to change about the world of growth is is you just should not launch products which aren't actually ready. The biggest villain I see doing this at the moment is Apple. And so we've always held Steve Jobs in our mind as just like this be…”
Harries: Apple Is Marketing Unfinished AI to Drive Hardware Sales
“The biggest villain I see doing this at the moment is Apple. And so we've always held Steve Jobs in our mind as just like this beacon of marketing and product and engineering. And now you have Apple pushing that the reason you should upgrade to the newest iPho…”
Pishevar: Firing Kalanick from Uber was tech's worst mistake since Jobs
“And so they got two, two of the greatest minds in Silicon Valley were taken out of the company. This is the greatest value destruction that's happened since firing Steve Jobs at Apple. And it was a massive mistake.”
Lehmann: Apple Vision Pro will have record high returns and fail
“This will be the first product for Apple where they have more returns than they have on any other metric You. You can plot the graph, and it's since Steve Jobs came back, this is probably the first thing that is a turd.”
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Seibert: On-device Apple LLMs could make OpenAI obsolete within five years
“I bet Apple can and will. And so if you project forward five years, if they get to the point where they can run a sufficiently large LLM on your iPhone, then OpenAI is out of the picture. You don't even need to hit their servers. It's just on your phone.”
Claure: Pitching Steve Jobs Created the Mobile Phone Trade-In Model
“So back then, I used to own Brightstar. And I had an idea of how could Apple actually double their sales. And after many emails to Steve Jobs, which he wrote me back, no interest. One day he got tired of everybody pinging him that he had to meet me. So he agre…”
Coates: Bottom-up management destroys product cohesion across multi-product software suites
“The problem with power to the edges and bottoms up decision making Is that the value of a product like Shopify, or the value of, not even a product, like a product suite, like, because Shopify has many products, right? And look at Apple, right? Like Apple is l…”
Steve Jobs told Dropbox it was 'a feature, not a product' in 2009
“He was like, well, you guys are a feature, not a product. And now we're gonna have to like compete with you and kill you and you don't have distribution and dah, dah, dah, dah, dah.”
Fadell: iPod's original strategy was driving Mac sales, which failed
“We're going to sell the iPod. It's going to be so awesome that people will buy Macs so they could use their iPod. We're going to sell more Macs because they're going to need to buy one to use an iPod that they're going to have to have. Well, guess what? The fi…”
Cohen: Machine learning benefits tech giants, not early-stage AI startups
“Machine learning is a leveraged play on data, so So it's the Facebooks, the Apples, the Googles of the world that are getting the most benefit from it. It's not the early stage startups.”
Uretsky: Apple will never match iPhone scale with another product category
“So when I read online about, you know, all of these different pundits talking about, you know, what's Apple's next big thing, my answer is there isn't one, because it has nothing to do with Apple. It has to do with the market. If you can't Find another thing t…”
Lemkin predicts Apple Music will be a miss for Apple and Spotify
“I think that it's gonna be tough to really materially impact Spotify, and it's hard to have a material impact on Apple's bottom line, so no matter what, it's a miss.”
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep's revenue per employee is way higher than Apple's
“Our revenue per employees is way higher than Apple.”
Greze: Apple's new Siri will lag Town and GrokBot by nine months in capability
“But I think it's going to be good, but it's going to feel not nearly as powerful as Town or GrokBot. Like it's not even going to be there in terms of its capabilities, but it'll be on your phone. It'll be convenient. You'll be able to like enable more data wit…”
Greze: Apple lacks cloud DNA and does not know how to do cloud
“One, they're not a cloud company. They're just not, it's just not their DNA. They don't know how to do cloud.”
Greze: Building an AI assistant is a top-three priority at Apple and Google
“You want to know, the truth is I know what I'm building is a top three priority at Google and Apple, like in the next 12 months. Not a top 10 priority, like a top three priority.”
Lemkin: OpenAI will likely cancel or pause its hardware project
“Listen, if I had to breathe the tea leaves, hardware is probably on the bubble. This was one of Sam's initiatives that made sense when everything was working and OpenAI had an unassailable lead over, over its competitors, right? Now everything's, you know, we …”
O'Driscoll: Consumer AI will be tougher for OpenAI than enterprise
“I think actually, you know, the consumer space is going to be a tougher space for open. The enterprise space has really been validated. Cause an enterprise is all about automation efficiency and a consumer space. It's about experiences. Apple's well-placed to …”
Weitzman: AirPods made more revenue than Spotify and audio competitors combined
“And by the way, AirPods made more money Then Spotify and almost every other audio company put together every single year for the last seven years.”
Weitzman: Speechify's early hires from Apple and Snapchat failed within three months
“We had two people that we hired from Apple and Snapchat, like very legit people. And they messed up the culture of the company. They would leave at 5:30 p.m. They like didn't live and breathe the company. And in the end, both of them quit after three months.”
Masad: Replit has been stuck in Apple App Store review for months
“Replit has been on the App Store since twenty-twenty-two doing exactly the same thing, allowing people to generate or write code. And running it in a browser window. Suddenly they're saying that we are you know, we're not complying with their guidelines. And w…”
Omer Shai says only companies like Apple can market without product focus
“Apple is one. It's a company, right? And we can talk about, let's say, 10 more, not in the level of Apple, that can tell a story like that. And all the others, other, and eventually... Need to play different game ball.”
Alex Schultz: Meta supported Apple against UK government encryption backdoor demands
“That's why we came out in support of Apple. That's why other companies have come out in support of Apple in that situation. Despite the fact, as companies, we've had a lot of disagreements. We supported Apple in that.”
Malik: Apple privacy changes killed Meta ads as a core scaling channel
“I mean, I think especially with all the latest Apple changes, I don't know how anyone is going to make Instagram or Facebook ads efficiently work at scale as like a core growth channel.”
Gurski: Five or more $10B+ consumer subscription companies will exist by 2029
“I think we will have them because this business model is growing, and you might just check numbers of Apple, and you may see that Apple got from consumer subscription in 2017 and five billion, and it's projected that we'll get maybe one hundred billion or so n…”
Carter: Apple and Google will lower App Store fees within 10 years
“I do think that there may be some factors over the next 10 years that start to make this a little bit easier. For example, 15 to 30% app store fees. I think Google and Apple are under increasing pressure to lower the average app store fee, at least in certain …”
Luan: Apple will dominate private on-device AI running at the edge
“And so I think as a result, I think Apple is just going to completely crush at everything that looks like something that's really private, something that's fine-tuned on your own particular data, but doesn't require massive reasoning capability. And that will …”
Lehmann: Apple Vision Pro is a product in search of a market
“On the Vision, as it is, how it is today? I, short. I think it's a product in search of a market.”
Seibert: On-device iPhone LLMs will make OpenAI obsolete within five years
“I bet Apple can and will, and so if you project forward five years, if they get to the point where they can run a sufficiently large LLM on your iPhone, then OpenAI is out of the picture. Don't even need to hit their servers. It's just on your phone.”
Seibert: Open-source LLMs will become the 'Android' to OpenAI's 'Apple'
“So the closed may win in terms of having the most advanced model, but I think the Apple versus Android comparison is exactly accurate. So you're going to have something proprietary that might be best because it can be fully vertically integrated. They have, th…”
Seibert: Apple's custom silicon provides a massive advantage for on-device AI
“What very few people I think are paying attention to is Apple, because again, they control the silicon. Imagine they're able to pioneer small models that run on device, and then they do custom silicon to make them run. The performance could be outlandish.”
Traynor: AI intent-routing will give Apple Google-like dominance over app distribution
“If they become this really nice intermediary layer where you're You don't even pick the app you launch because that is a form of user selection we don't even want in our lives. You just say the thing you want to happen and leave it to Apple to work out what sh…”
Lanng: Counting Apple out of the AI race is a major mistake
“And I think, by the way, everybody will be making a mix, make a big mistake if they count Apple out of the AI race. They're gonna come With a hundred miles an hour, I mean, they come in, it would be really, really good.”
Full Marketing Channel Attribution and Consistent CAC Metrics Are Impossible
“I agree. I think it's bullshit. I think it's a really, as, like, a, the expectation that it's going to be a consistent metric across channels, and having, like, a full view of everything that could be included in that is, is impossible. Like, it's not, Unlikel…”
Liaw: Regulatory fear has chilled M&A for Meta, Google, Amazon, and Apple
“I think that probably the bigger challenge is for a lot of the biggest mega cap tech companies, fear of regulation and regulatory authority intervention is probably causing a lot of them to say, this is probably not worth our time, right? So it's kind of a fun…”
DHH: Zoom's Hidden Web Server Forced Apple to Issue Emergency Patch
“All the shit that they've done that's kind of on the sly, whether it was last year when they installed this uninstallable web server, just because they wanted to save a click, right? And then Apple all of a sudden had to release this emergency fix to remove th…”
Loftus: Big Tech Buyer Softening Has Kept Startup Acquisition Prices Moderate
“So I haven't seen a ton of price increase, but I do think that's because in my view, even though you've seen new entrants into the market, There's been softening at the other end of the market from the Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon end.”
Sideman: Apple and Google are the biggest barrier to crypto adoption
“It's the incumbents who control the centralized distribution channels today, like Apple and Google.”
Grady: Big Tech will be the biggest beneficiary of the next platform shift
“In the next platform shift, that will also be true. The biggest beneficiary is likely to be Google or Facebook or Apple or Amazon.”
Rachleff: Netflix, Google, and Apple lack network effects
“There's no network effect to Netflix. There's no network effect to Google. There's no network effect to a lot of the, to Apple products, but you love them, and if you love them, you're going to tell all of your friends about them, and that's what defines viral…”
Chang: Data-poor AI startups will be acqui-hired by major tech incumbents
“If startups can't train on massive proprietary data sets, then they'll never get that advantage on their algorithms. And then they're really targeted for, you know, acqui-hire by Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, et cetera.”
Chad Byers Predicts Facebook or Amazon Will Hit $1 Trillion First
“So I think it's Facebook. You know, my second answer, although this is kind of cheating, would probably be Amazon. So Facebook or Amazon, I don't think it's Apple. I don't think it's Google. I think it's going to be one of those two.”
Big Tech Dominance Makes Creating New Consumer Web Unicorns Difficult
“We're now in a world where, you know, we're seeing really dominant market power, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, you know, creating a new set of unicorns in the face of that market power is going to be very difficult, certainly in the consumer-facing web serv…”
Wenger refuses to use an iPhone due to Apple's centralized gatekeeping
“My primary phone is, is not an Apple phone because I think that the idea that I could have a supercomputer in my pocket that's connected to the entire world through the internet, and in order to install software on it, I really have to go through a single comp…”
Pakman: Apple Music will reach only 30-50M paid subscribers in 2 years
“I think there'll be a sustainable long-term digital music streaming service, but I don't think they'll get much more than, you know, I'm thinking sort of 30 to fifty million paying subscribers over the next two years, so I think my prediction is that they'll f…”