| 80% | “80%” | Mignano: 80% of non-coding enterprise tasks do not require frontier AI | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Mignano: Market leaders typically capture only 30% of total market share | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Mignano: Market leaders typically capture only 30% of total market share | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Mignano: Market leaders typically capture only 30% of total market share | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Mignano: Market leaders typically capture only 30% of total market share | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Stebbings: Microsoft beats superior startup products through enterprise bundling | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 500M | “a four hundred million” | Stebbings: VC firms need a $400M fund to lead Series A today | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 375M | “a two hundred seventy five million” | Mignano: Union Square Ventures is investing from a $275 million core fund | Mike Mignano | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Stebbings: Thrive Capital's growth fund outperforms 90% of seed funds | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 3× | “three X” | Stebbings: 20VC lost two deals to competitors bidding 3x higher valuations | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 1% | “one percent” | Stebbings: I passed on Suno's seed round over 1% ownership target | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 10M | “ten million” | Stebbings: I raised $10M from billionaires for a European media venture | Harry Stebbings | Jul 6, 2026 | — |
| 20× | “20 times” | Sierra engineers report 3x to 20x productivity boost from AI agents | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 10B | “ten billion” | Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 50% | “50%” | Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 3.8% | “3.8%” | Bavor: AI token spend will reach 20% of software developer salaries | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Open |
| 20% | “20%” | Bavor: AI token spend will reach 20% of software developer salaries | Clay Bavor | Jul 4, 2026 | Open |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Lemkin: AI features helped Box return to double-digit growth | Jason Lemkin | Jul 2, 2026 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | Lemkin: >10% Chance US Bans Chinese AI Models for US Companies | Jason Lemkin | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Protecting AI Frontier Models Harms Economy by Raising Intelligence Costs | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| $10M | “ten million dollars” | O'Driscoll: Without open source, Coinbase's AI costs would have sextupled | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 1M | “a million” | O'Driscoll: Microsoft lacks compelling proprietary AI products beyond OpenAI stake | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | O'Driscoll: Intercontinental Exchange owns ~20% stake in Polymarket | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | Supported |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: Political prediction markets are too small to build $100B companies | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 10× | “10 times” | O'Driscoll: Bending Spoons grows via price hikes and cost cuts, not users | Rory O'Driscoll | Jul 2, 2026 | Supported |
| 15% | “15%” | Lemkin: Declining public software companies will accept acquisition premiums as low as 15% | Jason Lemkin | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 35M | “thirty five million” | Chamath Palihapitiya raises $135M for AI startup 8090 as CEO | Harry Stebbings | Jul 2, 2026 | Supported |
| 1.5M | “a half million” | Stebbings: Growing $1.5M to $5M ARR is no longer enough for Series A | Harry Stebbings | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 5M | “five million” | Stebbings: Growing $1.5M to $5M ARR is no longer enough for Series A | Harry Stebbings | Jul 2, 2026 | — |
| 1.5T | “a half trillion” | Shridhar: Global Electricity Is a $5.5T Market; Bloom Energy Did $2B | K.R. Shridhar | Jun 29, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 2B | “two billion” | Shridhar: Global Electricity Is a $5.5T Market; Bloom Energy Did $2B | K.R. Shridhar | Jun 29, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 300M | “three hundred million” | Salesforce's $300M Anthropic Spend Equals 3.8% of Developer Salaries | Harry Stebbings | Jun 27, 2026 | Supported |
| 3.8% | “3.8%” | Salesforce's $300M Anthropic Spend Equals 3.8% of Developer Salaries | Harry Stebbings | Jun 27, 2026 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Spending 20% of Developer Salaries on AI Tokens Is Realistic | Paul Erlang | Jun 27, 2026 | — |
| $1.5M | “a half million dollars” | Trader Turned $10K Into $2.5M Overnight on FOMO | Paul Erlang | Jun 27, 2026 | Not publicly verifiable |
| 1.5M | “a half million” | Trader Turned $300 Into $1.5M in One Month on FOMO | Paul Erlang | Jun 27, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 550M | “five hundred fifty million” | FOMO Valued at $550M Post-Money in Series B | Paul Erlang | Jun 27, 2026 | — |
| $300B | “three hundred billion dollars” | O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic rely on $300B spent by other companies | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 100B | “a hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: The AI industry generates $100B revenue while spending $700B on CapEx | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 700B | “seven hundred billion” | O'Driscoll: The AI industry generates $100B revenue while spending $700B on CapEx | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 70% | “70%” | Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference | Jason Lemkin | Jun 25, 2026 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | O'Driscoll: AI efficiency gains will cut white-collar service costs by 20% | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Lemkin: AI agents will reduce corporate contractor spend by 50% to 60% | Jason Lemkin | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 4B | “a three billion” | Lemkin: Menlo Ventures raised a $3B fund following its Anthropic bet | Jason Lemkin | Jun 25, 2026 | Supported |
| 1B | “one billion” | O'Driscoll: Smaller VC funds offer better risk-adjusted returns than mega-funds | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 2B | “two billion” | O'Driscoll: Smaller VC funds offer better risk-adjusted returns than mega-funds | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | O'Driscoll: 70% of Q1 venture dollars went to just four or five deals | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | Supported |
| 200M | “two hundred million” | Lemkin: SPV models require friction-free, instant LP capital deployment via WhatsApp | Jason Lemkin | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | O'Driscoll: 90% of Kalshi's prediction market activity is actually sports betting | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | Supported |
| 99% | “99%” | O'Driscoll: IT consulting and systems integration are prime targets for AI disruption | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | O'Driscoll: IT consulting and systems integration are prime targets for AI disruption | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 25, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Arora: 90% of enterprise employees are not AI-savvy | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 2% | “two percent” | Arora: Palo Alto Networks exclusively hires via hackathons to transform workforce | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Open |
| 25% | “25%” | Arora: Palo Alto Networks exclusively hires via hackathons to transform workforce | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Open |
| 3× | “three X” | Arora: Compute costs have increased 2x to 4x over two years | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 4× | “four X” | Arora: Compute costs have increased 2x to 4x over two years | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 70% | “70%” | Arora: Advertising revenue cannot expand enough to fund consumer AI | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 8% | “eight percent” | Arora: Consumer goods manufacturing costs are only 5-8% of list prices | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 92% | “92%” | Arora: Consumer goods manufacturing costs are only 5-8% of list prices | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| $100B | “hundred billion dollars” | Nikesh Arora: Financial markets will not fund another $100B compute capex cycle | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Open |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | Nikesh Arora: Financial markets will not fund another $100B compute capex cycle | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Open |
| 90% | “90%” | Nikesh Arora: 90% of AI tasks do not require frontier models | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 50M | “fifty million” | Palo Alto Networks operates 150 million sensors globally to protect network perimeters | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Supported |
| 10× | “10 X” | Arora: Corporate acquisitions must deliver 10x to 100x business value or fail | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 100× | “hundred X” | Arora: Corporate acquisitions must deliver 10x to 100x business value or fail | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 2× | “two X” | Arora: Corporate acquisitions must deliver 10x to 100x business value or fail | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | — |
| 2% | “two percent” | Nikesh Arora: Palo Alto Networks market share grew from <2% to 8-9% | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 9% | “nine percent” | Nikesh Arora: Palo Alto Networks market share grew from <2% to 8-9% | Nikesh Arora | Jun 22, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1M | “one million” | Petersen: Flexport generated over $2B in revenue last year | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | Supported |
| 2B | “two billion” | Petersen: Flexport generated over $2B in revenue last year | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | Supported |
| $450M | “four hundred fifty million dollars” | Petersen: Flexport reaches $450 million net revenue run rate | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 450M | “four hundred fifty million” | Petersen: Flexport reaches $450 million net revenue run rate | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Petersen: Flexport aims for 30% annual revenue growth for 10 years | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 1% | “one percent” | Petersen: Flexport holds less than 0.1% of global logistics market | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 100M | “hundred million” | Petersen: Flexport will IPO in a couple of years after hitting a few hundred million EBIT | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | Open |
| 5M | “five million” | Petersen: Flexport spends $5M annually on LLMs, spend doubled recently | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 150M | “a hundred fifty million” | Ryan Petersen: Flexport's largest customer spends $150M annually on logistics | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Ryan Petersen: Physical goods companies spend 5% of revenue on logistics | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 4% | “four percent” | Petersen: Only 4% of Flexport's workforce is in San Francisco | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Petersen: Threatening to build in-house tools yields 20% SaaS discounts | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Petersen: 3X Angel Returns Have Zero Impact Compared to 500X Outliers | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 3× | “three X” | Petersen: 3X Angel Returns Have Zero Impact Compared to 500X Outliers | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 500× | “500 X” | Petersen: 3X Angel Returns Have Zero Impact Compared to 500X Outliers | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Petersen: SoftBank led Flexport's $1B round and urged undercutting rivals by 10% | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Petersen: SoftBank led Flexport's $1B round and urged undercutting rivals by 10% | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Ryan Petersen: Flexport targets 80% AI workflow completion by 2026 | Ryan Petersen | Jun 20, 2026 | — |
| $24B | “twenty four billion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Musk's low cost of capital enables AI bets no one else can make | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | — |
| 70% | “70%” | Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 2.4T | “2.4 trillion” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Open |
| 50% | “50%” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Open |
| 90% | “90%” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Open |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce | Harry Stebbings | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 50M | “fifty million” | Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce | Harry Stebbings | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 25M | “twenty five million” | Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce | Harry Stebbings | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce | Harry Stebbings | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 15× | “15 times” | Randle: Top public SaaS platforms trade above 15x NTM revenue | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 8× | “eight times” | Randle: Adobe trades at eight times LTM free cash flow | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 44% | “44%” | Randle: Cloud index down 44% over five years while semis rose 325% | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| 325% | “325%” | Randle: Cloud index down 44% over five years while semis rose 325% | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | Supported |
| $10B | “ten billion dollars” | Randle: Legacy SaaS incumbents can no longer afford top AI startups | Everett Randle | Jun 18, 2026 | — |
| $180M | “a hundred eighty million dollars” | O'Driscoll: Locus Robotics has 15,000 deployed robots and $180M revenue | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | — |
| 3M | “three million” | O'Driscoll: Robots have replaced under 1% of manual labor globally | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | O'Driscoll: Robots have replaced under 1% of manual labor globally | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1% | “one percent” | O'Driscoll: Robots have replaced under 1% of manual labor globally | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 18, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | AI product success depends on power users, not mass reach | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 10M | “ten million” | Some Meta engineers spend $10 million annually on AI coding tools | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 100M | “a hundred million” | AI agents will generate more revenue than Google or Meta ads | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | Open |
| 10M | “ten million” | AI frontier will shift to chip design, drugs, and robotics | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | US government owns 10% of Intel, Nvidia and SoftBank 5% each | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 5% | “five percent” | US government owns 10% of Intel, Nvidia and SoftBank 5% each | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 100M | “hundred million” | 20-person startups will build multi-billion dollar companies with AI | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| $1M | “a million dollars” | Perplexity received $1M in cloud credits at launch | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| $1M | “a million dollars” | Perplexity launches 'Billion Dollar Build' offering $1M in compute credits | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Perplexity launches 'Billion Dollar Build' offering $1M in compute credits | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Perplexity could reach 800 to 1,000 employees in two years | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Perplexity can become a trillion-dollar company | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| $2T | “two trillion dollars” | Perplexity reaching $2T is as hard as unfunded founder reaching $1B | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | Perplexity reaching $2T is as hard as unfunded founder reaching $1B | Aravind Srinivas | Jun 15, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Grinberg: Open-source models can execute 80% to 90% of frontier AI tasks | Matan Grinberg | Jun 13, 2026 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Grinberg: Developer experience investments yield 10x to 100x impact with AI agents | Matan Grinberg | Jun 13, 2026 | — |
| 100× | “hundred X” | Grinberg: Developer experience investments yield 10x to 100x impact with AI agents | Matan Grinberg | Jun 13, 2026 | — |
| 1T | “one trillion” | O'Driscoll: The 2020s will produce two trillion-dollar startup outcomes | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Open |
| $10B | “ten billion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan will make over $10B on SpaceX | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Open |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Apple pays Google $1B for Gemini while receiving $20B for search | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| $20B | “twenty billion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Apple pays Google $1B for Gemini while receiving $20B for search | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 15B | “fifteen billion” | O'Driscoll: Revolut's valuation stems from fat, inefficient European banks | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 500M | “five hundred million” | Stebbings: Lovable Reached $500M ARR With 146 Employees | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 4B | “four billion” | Stebbings: Cursor Hit $4B Valuation, Targets $6B By Year-End | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 6B | “six billion” | Stebbings: Cursor Hit $4B Valuation, Targets $6B By Year-End | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Contradicted |
| 2B | “two billion” | O'Driscoll: Musk earns $2B monthly selling compute to Anthropic and Google | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 24B | “twenty four billion” | O'Driscoll: Musk earns $2B monthly selling compute to Anthropic and Google | Rory O’Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | Stebbings: Ramp Raised $750M at $44B Valuation, Surpassing $1B ARR | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 400M | “four hundred million” | Stebbings: Suno Raised $400M at $5.4B Valuation Led by Bond | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 6.4B | “a 5.4 billion” | Stebbings: Suno Raised $400M at $5.4B Valuation Led by Bond | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 1.5B | “a half billion” | O'Driscoll: Revolut Generates $4.5B Revenue and $1.5B Operating Income | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | Lemkin: Skeptical of Suno's path to a $20 billion outcome | Jason Lemkin | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| $20B | “twenty billion dollars” | Stebbings: Bending Spoons filing US IPO at $20B valuation | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Supported |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | O'Driscoll: Bending Spoons' $20B IPO valuation lacks organic growth justification | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 20× | “20 times” | O'Driscoll: Bending Spoons' $20B IPO valuation lacks organic growth justification | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 15× | “15 times” | O'Driscoll: Bending Spoons' $20B IPO valuation lacks organic growth justification | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | O'Driscoll: Legacy consumer tech shares vertical SaaS pricing power | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 11, 2026 | — |
| 65B | “sixty five billion” | Stebbings: Databricks raised privately at $165B, up from $134B | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 34B | “thirty four billion” | Stebbings: Databricks raised privately at $165B, up from $134B | Harry Stebbings | Jun 11, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Chernin: Nebius had its best sales week during DeepSeek market selloff | Roman Chernin | Jun 8, 2026 | — |
| 99% | “99 percent” | Chernin: Revolut initially spent 99% of its AI inference budget on OpenAI | Roman Chernin | Jun 8, 2026 | — |
| 75% | “75%” | Chernin: 70% to 75% of Nebius's new compute capacity is in the US | Roman Chernin | Jun 8, 2026 | — |
| 100M | “a hundred million” | Legora reached $100M ARR in 18 months | Harry Stebbings | Jun 6, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 2% | “two percent” | Lauritsen: Claude and Cursor generate over 50% of Legora's code | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Lauritsen: Claude and Cursor generate over 50% of Legora's code | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Lauritsen: Vibe coding clones hit 90% easily, but enterprise edge cases are hard | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Lauritsen: Vibe coding clones hit 90% easily, but enterprise edge cases are hard | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 100× | “100 X” | Lauritzen: Legora now designs all software systems to scale to 100x usage | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Lauritzen: Legora now designs all software systems to scale to 100x usage | Jacob Lauritzen | Jun 6, 2026 | — |
| 10B | “ten billion” | O'Driscoll: Normal years won't yield over 5 exits above $10B | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | Didn’t hold up |
| 10× | “10 X” | O'Driscoll: Current frontier AI models will be 5x-10x cheaper in a year | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | Open |
| 1.5T | “half a trillion” | O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spend has established a $500BN-$1TN market size | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| $1T | “a trillion dollars” | O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spend has established a $500BN-$1TN market size | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spend has established a $500BN-$1TN market size | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 13% | “13%” | Rory: EDA software tools account for 13% of engineering budget per engineer | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | Supported |
| 100M | “a hundred million” | Calacanis: $100M Portfolio Company Tripling Product Count This Year | Jason Lemkin | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 3× | “three times” | Calacanis: $100M Portfolio Company Tripling Product Count This Year | Jason Lemkin | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 2% | “two percent” | Rory O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Boost GDP Productivity Growth Above 2% | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | Open |
| 11B | “eleven billion” | Calacanis: Kirkland & Ellis generates $11B revenue growing 20% | Jason Lemkin | Jun 4, 2026 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Calacanis: Kirkland & Ellis generates $11B revenue growing 20% | Jason Lemkin | Jun 4, 2026 | Supported |
| 41% | “41%” | Stebbings: Harvard endowment holds 41% of portfolio in private assets | Harry Stebbings | Jun 4, 2026 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | O'Driscoll: Overpaying for Decelerating SaaS Companies Leaves No Operational Escape | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| 9% | “nine percent” | O'Driscoll: Overpaying for Decelerating SaaS Companies Leaves No Operational Escape | Rory O'Driscoll | Jun 4, 2026 | — |
| $10B | “ten billion dollars” | Stebbings: Menlo to make $10B carry on Anthropic, Founders Fund more on SpaceX | Harry Stebbings | Jun 4, 2026 | Open |
| 40% | “40%” | Frontier AI Task Automation Rose From 1% to 40% in 12 Months | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 1% | “one percent” | Frontier AI Task Automation Rose From 1% to 40% in 12 Months | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| $3M | “three million dollars” | Foody: Mercor is paying out over $3 million daily | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| 5M | “five million” | Foody: Mercor Has a Talent Network of Over Five Million People | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 500M | “five hundred million” | Foody discloses Mercor holds over $500M in cash and is highly profitable | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| $2.5M | “a half a million dollars” | Mercor Burned Only $500K Post-Seed and Holds More Cash Than Raised | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Foody: Mercor operates at 30% to 40% gross margin | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| $2.3M | “2.3 million dollars” | General Catalyst issued Mercor's seed term sheet at $23M valuation | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Not publicly verifiable |
| 24M | “a twenty three million” | General Catalyst issued Mercor's seed term sheet at $23M valuation | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Not publicly verifiable |
| 20M | “twenty million” | Felicis Offered Mercor $2B Valuation at $20M ARR | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| $2B | “two billion dollars” | Felicis Offered Mercor $2B Valuation at $20M ARR | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 3B | “a two billion” | Felicis Offered Mercor $2B Valuation at $20M ARR | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 400M | “four hundred million” | Felicis Offered Mercor $10B Valuation at $400M ARR | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 11B | “a ten billion” | Felicis Offered Mercor $10B Valuation at $400M ARR | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Foody: Mercor could raise prices 30% without impacting customer demand | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| 5M | “five million” | Foody: Mercor's AI agent has conducted over 5M interviews | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Supported |
| 11T | “a 10 trillion” | OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Open |
| $10T | “10 trillion dollars” | OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Open |
| 40% | “40%” | Foody: NVIDIA will lose its monopoly in five years but remain most valuable | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Open |
| $100M | “a hundred million dollars” | Foody: Three former Mercor employees founded $100M+ startups | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | — |
| $20M | “twenty million dollars” | Meta Offered an AI Candidate $20 Million Per Year in Cash | Brendan Foody | Jun 1, 2026 | Open |
| 30% | “30%” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic Matched Its Full Prior Year Revenue in Q1 | Rory O'Driscoll | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $50B Quarterly Profit Makes It World's Most Profitable | Rory O'Driscoll | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 50B | “fifty billion” | O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $50B Quarterly Profit Makes It World's Most Profitable | Rory O'Driscoll | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 56B | “fifty-six billion” | O'Driscoll: Nvidia's $50B Quarterly Profit Makes It World's Most Profitable | Rory O'Driscoll | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 7% | “seven percent” | Lemkin: 7% of All Americans' Life Savings Are Concentrated in Nvidia | Jason Lemkin | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
| 1M | “a million” | Lemkin: Corporate AI Spend Will Bifurcate Based on Revenue Per Employee | Jason Lemkin | May 28, 2026 | — |
| 2M | “two million” | Lemkin: Corporate AI Spend Will Bifurcate Based on Revenue Per Employee | Jason Lemkin | May 28, 2026 | — |
| 5B | “five billion” | O'Driscoll: Anthropic GAAP Revenue Doubled From $5B to $10B | Rory O'Driscoll | May 28, 2026 | Partly supported |
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