incumbents

also referred to as: incumbent · incumbent's

41 statements across 37 episodes · 19 bullish · 11 bearish · 33 people on the record · first statement Jul 11, 2016 by Albert Wenger · across every show →

Everything said about incumbents, oldest first

Jul 11, 2016 negative
Opinion
Wenger: Dominant incumbents have stifled innovation in search and social media
“I think, you know, we've seen less innovation than we would probably like in the search space. I think we're seeing less innovation than we might like in the social space. And that's one of the effects of having A incumbent that has very, enjoys very strong ne…”
Albert Wenger Jul 11, 2016 ▶ 12:29 20VC: USV's Albert Wenger on Automation Replacing Humans, The Universal Basic Income and The Instalment & The Deployment Phase
Nov 9, 2016 positive
Opinion
Barriers to overcoming big tech data incumbencies are surprisingly low
“I do think that there are big data incumbencies, and I do think that they require, if you will, they're a challenge to overcome I do think that the barriers to overcome them are not so high. As previously mentioned, the incumbents oftentimes get in their own w…”
Rudina Seseri Nov 9, 2016 ▶ 10:13 20VC: Who Will Own The Data? Is There An Incumbency Advantage in AI? When Will Artificial Super Intelligence Come To The Forefront with Rudina Seseri, Founder and Managing Director @ Glasswing Ventures
May 3, 2017
Insight
Corporate incumbents determine winners and losers in proptech
“A handful of incumbents, a handful of big corporates really dictate who wins and who loses in real estate tech.”
Brendan Wallace May 3, 2017 ▶ 8:08 20VC: How LPs Can Add Strategic Value To Portfolio Companies & Why Real Estate Is On Every Whiteboard In Silicon Valley with Brendan Wallace, Co-Founder @ Fifth Wall
Jul 3, 2017 bullish
Opinion
Tech Incumbents Are the Most Nimble in History, Says Feng
“They're not afraid to directly compete with companies, copy companies, do whatever it takes because they have grown up in this next wave of innovation, and they are the savviest Strongest, most nimble, fast-moving group of incumbents that I think the world has…”
Eric Feng Jul 3, 2017 ▶ 12:05 20VC: Kleiner Perkins GP, Eric Feng on How The Best Funds Use Tech and Data To Find Companies, Why Entrepreneurs Start The Fire and VCs Add The Rocket Fuel & Why Consumer Is Harder Than Ever Today
Jul 31, 2017 neutral
Insight
Porteous: Consumer Startups Must Rely on Organic Growth Over Paid Acquisition
“I think the way we'll see new consumer experiences launched is actually going to be much more organic. You know, it's the trends, the sharing of new application experiences among communities that we as investors have to really watch for because we can't compet…”
Will Porteous Jul 31, 2017 ▶ 17:36 20VC: What Metrics LPs Really Use To Measure Manager Success, Why 10 Year Fund Structures Really Do Not Work & Why Venture Is So Similar To The Movie Business with Will Porteous, General Partner @ RRE Ventures
Nov 13, 2017
Insight
Startups Must Get Distribution Before Incumbents Get Innovation
“The battle between every startup and incumbent comes down to whether the startup can get the distribution before the incumbent can build the innovation.”
Alex Rampell Nov 13, 2017 ▶ 7:55 20VC: a16z's Alex Rampell on The Struggle Between Innovation vs Distribution, When How To Determine Whether An Application is Optimised Through Centralised or Decentralised Networks & Why Most ICOs Today Are Ridiculous
Jul 13, 2018 negative
Opinion
Blumenthal: Incumbent apparel retailers neglect dual kids-and-parents customer dynamic
“That has very much been forgotten in any of the incumbents, and it's critical in the success of this category that we understand the demands and the needs and the psychology of both of those constituents”
Rachel Blumenthal Jul 13, 2018 ▶ 32:51 20VC: Why Fundraising Is Like Dating and How to Play The Game Successfully & How To Increase The Flexibility of Your Burn When Growth is Ambiguous with Rachel Blumenthal, Founder & CEO @ Rockets of Awesome
Jun 21, 2019 negative
Opinion
Kan: Incumbent law firms are heavily incentivized not to innovate
“Found a lot of things that I thought were like broken about the legal market and legal industry that created incentives for the incumbents themselves. Not to change.”
Justin Kan Jun 21, 2019 ▶ 5:48 20VC: Justin Kan on Why We Have To Normalize Vulnerability in Startups Today, Why Attaching Happiness To Future Outcomes Will Only Lead To Suffering & Why It Is Total BS That You Have To "Suffer" When Doing A Startup
Apr 8, 2021 bullish
Assertion Supported
Most payment processing revenue still sits with legacy incumbents
“If you take the three leaders today, which are ID and Stripe and Checkout, we're literally scratching the surface of what's possible. This is mathematical. All the revenue is still sitting in the incumbents”
Guillaume Pousaz Apr 8, 2021 ▶ 17:39 20VC: Checkout.com Founder Guillaume Pousaz on The Transition From Bootstrapped Founder to Raising $830M and a $15Bn Valuation, What It Means To Have "3 Roadmaps For Life" & How Becoming a Parent Changes the Type of Leader You Are
Aug 19, 2021 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Incumbents Will Execute a Massive Wave of Early-Stage Fintech Acquisitions
“I think in the world of fintech more broadly, though, we're about to see the most seismic shift in terms of incumbents acquiring startups in the realization that they have to now. And actually, you know, they have to do it quite early as well. Otherwise they c…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 19, 2021 ▶ 18:52 20VC LATAM Part 2: a16z's Angela Strange on When To Expand Beyond Your Core Market, Why Serving the Unbanked is Such Good Business & Whether the Startup Will Acquire the Distribution before The Incumbent Acquires the Innovation?
Apr 21, 2023 negative
Insight
Tunguz: Government Regulation Systematically Benefits Market Incumbents
“I think regulation on the whole, as a, one, it benefits incumbents because the cost of adhering to regulations are significant.”
Tomasz Tunguz Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 40:51 Tomasz Tunguz: How I Raised $230M; ChatGPT vs. Google; How LLMs Work; Trump vs DeSantis | E1004 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 3, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Incumbents Will Capture 90% of AI Value Creation
“And I more lean towards 90% of it being captured by incumbents, which isn't great for us as venture investors”
Harry Stebbings May 3, 2023 ▶ 27:32 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 3, 2023 bullish
Insight
Hankes: Bet on Startups Creating Novel User Experiences Over Incumbents
“Yes, if you're going toe to toe right now with an incumbent on their home turf and their shipping, I think it's a hard bet to take the opposite side of, you know, in our business. But if you're creating something that's totally a different user experience that…”
Vince Hankes May 3, 2023 ▶ 28:45 Vince Hankes: Why We Put $300M into OpenAI; Sam Altman's Pitch; Lessons from Josh Kushner | E1009 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 12, 2023 negative
Insight
Delangue: Incumbents Struggle With AI Due to Long-Term Research Requirements
“Because it's a completely different way to build technology, right? It's a way where you have to have scientists, for example, working for six months on a new architecture, on a new model before releasing it. So it's a different paradigm of how you build softw…”
Clément Delangue May 12, 2023 ▶ 28:41 Clem Delangue: The Ultimate Guide to Investing in AI; Elon's Threat to Sue OpenAI | E1013 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 27, 2023 positive
Insight
Cohen: Incumbents hold major AI advantages in compute, talent, and distribution
“If you're an incumbent and you already have the infrastructure for AI, the talent for AI, you're already have a leg up in this race and you should be using that. Incumbents have existing market share. They have already an existing customer base and that custom…”
Tomer Cohen May 27, 2023 ▶ 1:06:43 Tomer Cohen: Why LinkedIn Stories Failed; How LinkedIn's Feed Was Born; AI Startups | E1019 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 2, 2023 bearish
Insight
Hanks: Betting on startups directly competing with fast-moving incumbents is risky
“If you're going toe-to-toe right now with an incumbent on their home turf and their shipping, I think it's a hard bet to take the opposite side of, you know, in our business.”
Vince Hankes Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 9:24 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Jun 2, 2023 negative
Opinion
Guo: Incumbent data moats are overblown in the AI race
“Much ado has been made about this idea of a data moat, but honestly, there's a lot of data out there, and entrepreneurs are incredibly creative about collecting it, and increasingly about generating it, and I don't think it's, ah, the incumbents are gonna win …”
Sarah Guo Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 20:52 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Jun 19, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebrun: AI-native startups will displace incumbents across all industries within five years
“I think AI will enable a new generation of players in every industry that will kill the incumbents eventually.”
Alex Lebrun Jun 19, 2023 ▶ 1:08:05 Alex Lebrun: Why the EU's AI Regulation is a Disaster; How Zuck Prepares for Meetings | E1027 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 15, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Clément Delangue: Deep AI Startups Can Execute 100x Better Than Incumbents
“I think if you were thinking about AI as AI APIs, I agree. If you're thinking of AI as a more radical paradigm switch to build technology, right? And if you think about an AI startup as a company that is actually training models, creating new architectures, op…”
Clément Delangue Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 17:36 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Sep 18, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grimshaw: Incumbents will remain focused on lucrative AI co-pilot features
“I think incumbents can have a lot of cake with a co-pilot idea right now, and that'll be the focus.”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:12:26 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2023 positive
Insight
Grimshaw: AI Startups Win by Building Business Models Orthogonal to Incumbents
“There's so much wrapped up in, in, in the arc fundamental business As in company architectures and all the systems internally and all their operatings around that, that it's really hard to just change, right? That's why it ends up being asymmetric competition.…”
Miles Grimshaw Sep 18, 2023 ▶ 1:11:34 Miles Grimshaw: The 5 Pillars of Venture Capital & Why Co-Pilot is an Incumbent Strategy | E1061 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 6, 2023 positive
Insight
Rauch: Software startups defeat incumbents by offering radically simpler products
“The entry players can win because they do a lot less and because it's so disruptive, then the incumbent has to say, holy crap, we have to delete everything. I feel so invested. I crafted every icon. I crafted every menu. I crafted every piece of documentation …”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 54:38 Guillermo Rauch: Why Great Companies are Defined by How Many Things They Say No To | E1069 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 20, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Incumbents Capture Short-Term AI Value, Startups Win Over 5-10 Years
“In the short term, incumbents will accrue the most value, leveraging existing distribution, To provide co-pilot products. Over the longer term, startups providing tools for new product paradigms will be best placed to win over the next five to 10 years.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 23:48 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Oct 30, 2023 negative
What-if
Tomaino: Incumbent VCs would lose prestige if judged on fund performance
“If you know, everyone viewed Fund performance as the, you know, the metric of success, these, the big, you know, incumbents wouldn't have the prestige that they have.”
Nick Tomaino Oct 30, 2023 ▶ 29:44 Nick Tomaino: The Future of NFTs, What Will Happen with FTX & Who Should be Held to Account | E1076 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Incumbents will benefit more from AI than startups
“If you put a gun to my head, I'd say incumbents will probably do better out of AI than like startups thinking they can displace incumbents.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 55:44 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tavel: AI for existing workflows will drive tremendous market cap for incumbents
“If it's existing employees and their existing workflows that, you know, AI technology is going to be sustaining and it's going to drive tremendous market cap for the incumbents.”
Sarah Tavel May 6, 2024 ▶ 10:52 Sarah Tavel: Will Foundation Models Be Commoditised? | E1149 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Hulme: 90% of AI foundation model capital will go to zero
“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 54:01 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Incumbents will capture AI value as effectively as startups
“That is as much going to be an incumbent's game as a startup's game this time around.”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 0:09 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2024 neutral
Insight
Levie: AI startups will win where incumbents face Innovator's Dilemma business model traps
“Similarly in AI, I think there'll be some categories where incumbents have the natural advantage, but then there will be either blind spots that those incumbents don't kind of go after, or there will be things so different from their existing business model in…”
Aaron Levie May 22, 2024 ▶ 24:27 Aaron Levie: How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever & Startups vs Incumbents:Who Wins?|E1155 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 10, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Saper: Focused startups are outpacing incumbents in capturing AI value
“The thing I've changed my mind on is I'm less fearful that incumbents will be able to accrue most of the value. The reality is, like, it still early days in this game, and things could change, but thus far, the startups are outpacing, the focus startups are ou…”
Jake Saper Mar 10, 2025 ▶ 57:38 Jake Saper, GP @ Emergence Capital: "We Sold Salesforce Early and Lost Out on Billions" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2025 neutral
Insight
Green: Incumbents usually win tech cycles through customer distribution
“The incumbents usually win. It's customer distribution.”
Mitchell Green Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 0:05 Mitchell Green, Founder @ Lead Edge Capital: Why Traditional VC is Broken · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 2, 2025
Insight
Mohan: Obvious startup ideas yield no alpha against incumbents
“Like if you pick an idea that is like obvious to everyone, there's probably no alpha, right? A big company is going to go out and already beat you to the market, right? Because they have more distribution resources and capital than you.”
Varun Mohan Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 1:56 Windsurf CEO & Co-Founder, Varun Mohan: AI's Biggest Acquisition to Date! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Insight
Ross: Hardware incumbents win because AI models are optimized for existing GPUs
“So if you are the incumbent, you have an advantage because people are designing their models for your hardware. It doesn't even matter if there's a better architecture out there. It's not going to run well, so it's not a better architecture.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 25:22 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Rivera: AI favors incumbents over startups due to distribution and data
“Because I believe that distribution matters a great deal. We're all building on largely the same models. The areas where you actually can have like true network effects is access to unavailable data or consumer network effects. Both of these typically sit insi…”
Carl Rivera Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 26:06 20Product: How AI Changes Product Design | Does the Design Phase Become Irrelevant in a World of Vibe Coding | The Five Pillars of Truly Great Product Design with Carl Rivera, Chief Design Officer at Shopify
Dec 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Legacy incumbents face a 10-20 year decline from slow AI adoption
“We will be on a 10 to 20 year decline of incumbents who are unable and unwilling to adopt new tools because of data, because of permissioning, because of internal buying processes.”
Harry Stebbings Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 18:27 Turing CEO Jonathan Siddharth: Who Wins in Data Labelling & Why 99% of Knowledge Work Will Disappear · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: AI Security Concerns Will Benefit Incumbent Enterprise Platforms
“I think security is going to benefit the incumbents. I think we're going to be worried that our agents are depositing our data in a hundred different places”
Jason Lemkin Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 16:37 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 12, 2026
Insight
Rampell: Startup versus incumbent battle is distribution versus innovation speed
“The battle of every startup versus incumbent is whether the startup gets the distribution before the incumbent gets the innovation, right?”
Alex Rampell Jan 12, 2026 ▶ 28:46 Alex Rampell: The Best Founders Materialise Capital, Customers & Labour | The Future of Venture · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2026
Insight
O'Driscoll: Tech competition is incumbent distribution versus startup product speed
“Every one of these markets. It's a race between the incumbents who have distribution needing to add product and the new guys who have product need to add distribution, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 45:04 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 9, 2026
Insight
Acharya: Incumbents improve legacy categories while startups own new AI categories
“When you have this product cycle and you have a capable incumbent, what happens is they usually make their product better for their existing categories. So Microsoft will make a better word processor than they've ever made. Google will make a better search eng…”
Anish Acharya Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 8:25 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 positive
Insight
Zinman: Investors underestimate software incumbents' ability and willingness to adapt
“I think in general, I think investors underestimate incumbents ability to change their willingness to change the motivation to change.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 1:02:46 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026
Insight
Randle: Dominant software incumbents have only market share to lose to AI
“If you're already the market leader and you only have share to lose if you're already the incumbent, that's a really tough place to be because there's not really share to gain, there's only share to lose, and AI is a great way to for startups to take share fro…”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 1:00:35 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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