The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,002 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 49 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Iorns: Replication studies show most published scientific results are not reproducible
“So the reality is that the results that have been generated show that most published results are not reproducible.”
Brockman: Scaling neural nets will unlock qualitatively new behaviors
“And I think that what that's going to unlock is you're going to be able to scale up these models and you're going to see qualitatively different behaviors from what you've seen so far.”
Altman: Almost no top 30 software startup had remote early co-founders
“The data on this is look at the, say, like, 30 most successful software startups of all time, and try to point to a single example where the co-founders were in different locations. It's really, really tough.”
Dean: Specialized inference hardware will surpass general GPUs and TPUs
“I think, ah, you're gonna see more and more, ah high performance and low energy inference hardware systems, because I think everyone is now realizing that inference is the key to making, you know, these agent-based systems be available to more and more people,…”
Jeff Dean: AI models will not have good taste in problem selection
“I think models are not necessarily going to be that good at it. So you're going to have people steering a lot of AI assisted computation in order to accomplish great things and more quickly. But that essence of what it is you want your models to do is the key …”
Jeff Dean: There is no impediment to fully automating ML model research
“There's no, ah, you know, real impediment to making that be a much more automated loop, where the model itself decides it's going to explore, or maybe with a nudge from some people, ah, at the various highest level, like, oh, why don't you try some new ideas a…”
Wang: Billions of people will have tailored personal superintelligences
“We believe that everybody in the world, you know, all the billions of people in the world are going to have a super intelligence that is adapted and tailored to them, that is, enables them to accomplish their goals, knows their context, and ultimately is an ex…”
Wang: AI tools will increase businesses on Meta to billions
“There's two hundred million businesses that are on Metis platforms today. We think that number should go to billions with this explosion of creativity and using AI tools”
Wang: Meta rebuilt frontier AI lab from scratch after Llama 4 stalled
“Lama four wasn't on the trajectory that was needed for Meta. And so I got in there and we kind of did a zero based build of how do you know, build an entire frontier lab you know, in some ways kind of from scratch, obviously using a lot of what we had and move…”
Wang: Current AI models are powerful enough to drive major GDP expansion
“I truly believe these models are already just incredibly powerful. Like, they should be so powerful to fuel, you know many, many points of expansion of GDP growth, and I think it's, like, up to smart people with vision and ambition to make all that happen.”
Wang: In a decade, AI intelligence and agency will be abundant
“And so I think a decade looking back, it'll, it'll be obvious that intelligence became abundant and that agency became abundant.”
Altman: AI agents build in seven minutes what took startups three months
“What took three months to build at the time that we, each company built over the whole YC startup, could now be done with, like, in, like, seven minutes by a coding agent”
Altman: Startups will prevent AI power from concentrating in few companies
“In fact, if we are right that AI is going to be such a big change, startups will be much more important to making sure that The power of this technology gets widely distributed throughout the economy and society, and it's not just concentrated in a few compani…”
Altman: AI tool fluency will beat traditional experience for founders
“I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools.”
Altman: Next six months will match prior two years of AI progress
“I think there will, I think it will feel like the next six months is like maybe equivalent to the last two years of model progress, something like that.”
Altman: In 6.5 years, average person will use 500B tokens monthly
“If that happens again, which I think it probably will, then in another six and a half years, the average person uses, let's say, five hundred billion tokens a month, and the token leader uses a quadrillion, or quadrillions of tokens a month.”
Cherny: Claude Opus 5 Can Run Autonomously for Months Without Scaffolding
“For five, one example of something it does that I think no other model has done is it runs for a very long period of time. And especially when you combine Opus Five with auto mode, it's just like incredible. Like it can go for days, weeks, months at a time. It…”
Cherny: Claude Is More Intelligent Without System Prompts
“And what's interesting is that the model is actually a little bit more intelligent without these prompts. That's something that we've been finding.”
Cherny: Modern models can rewrite essentially any codebase into another language
“One example is the model can now rewrite essentially any code base from one language to a different language.”
Huang: Most software will be built agentically, elevating systems thinking
“In the case of software most software is going to be done agentically anyhow, so you have to be much more able to think abstractly about systems.”
Garry Tan: Context-aware consumer AI will become a $10B-$100B company
“I mean, this is a great example of like consumer AI that is almost certainly going to be a 10 or a hundred billion dollar company. That no one's built yet.”
Tan: AI token compute costs will drop drastically within two years
“I mean, basically because the frontier models are that good, like, you know, I think that in two years, like, That'll be a 100,000 and, you know, down to 10,000 and a thousand. I mean, basically these orders of magnitude are about to happen.”
Tan: The AI consumer revolution will arrive in 2029
“It means that the ideal consumer moment is still like
Three orders of magnitude away, but that means that the consumer revolution is actually in 2029.”
Tan: The next Meta and Snap will emerge within two years
“That's when we're going to see the new meta. That's when we'll see the new snap. That's when we're going to see all of the future and it's not even a couple of years away.”
Franceschi: AI Token Spend Will Become Every Company's Biggest Expense
“I think the, you know, it will be the biggest expense in a company, like easily.”
Tan: $100K AI token workloads will drop to $200 in two years
“What you spend a 100,000 or a million dollars a year on now, it will be commonplace like in, in two years, right? It'll, it won't cost a 100,000 in a year. It'll cost 10,000. And the year after that, it'll be like a couple hundred bucks, right? And everyone wi…”
Tan: Centralized vs. decentralized AI trajectory will be decided within 24 months
“We basically have a choice to be made over the next, I don't think it's even that long. I think it's like 18 to 24 months. It might take five years, but there are sort of two scenarios”
Tan: Jeff Lawson was ousted from Twilio 199 days after voting protections expired
“Our friend Jeff Lawson at Twilio built that company from nothing. To four billion dollars in, you know, actual revenue, like stock up 390% since IPO. I mean, by all accounts, you know, smash rip roaring success. And then his super voting shares expired after 1…”
Ries: Philip Morris generates $600B in annual US external costs
“They have something like eight billion dollars a year in net income. But there's been all these studies. They create six hundred billion dollars a year in costs just in the U.S. That have to be borne by others. I think it's three hundred billion in direct heal…”
Ries: Shareholder primacy was never enacted by statutory law or referendum
“In the history of the world. Shareholder primacy has never been subject to any referendum, any legislative action, nothing. So it's weird. If you learned in school, how a bill becomes a law, There's no law for shareholder primacy.”
Ries: Foundation-owned companies are 6x more likely to reach year 50
“Companies with this structure are six times more likely to live to year 50. 10% versus 60% probability.”
Graham: YC startups returning home are half as likely to become unicorns
“YC now has a lot of data about this, and the startups that go home after YC don't do as well as the ones that stay. Startups that go home back, startups that go back home after YC are only about half as likely to become unicorns”
Garry Tan: Tokenmaxxing will permeate all knowledge work across society
“I think now it's going to permeate every part of society. Like, every thing that we would call knowledge work could be token maxed.”
Garry Tan: Tokenmaxxing will not replace humans because human agency remains essential
“I don't think that it means that we're going to get rid of people. I think it means that people need to still supply the agency.”
Chaubard: HRM scored 70% on ARC Prize 1 without pre-training
“There is no pre-training at all. This starts from, like, literally Tagula-Rasa weights, and it can outperform at that time, if we go back, you know, we had O-three, if you remember back, way back when. And it, O-three gets zero. Literally zero, and this got, l…”
Chaubard predicts running recursive reasoning models inside giant LLM latent spaces
“What you can imagine is we found mapping from token space or from vision, from pixels, Some really cool latent space where, like, things are just nicely semantically separated, and we can, you know, makes it really easy for downstream tasks to do, but now in t…”
Hassabis: Current AI paradigms will be part of final AGI architecture
“The components that you just mentioned, I'm pretty sure will be part of the final architecture for AGI. So I think they've come such a long way now and we've proven out so many things about what they can do. I can't see a world in which we will sort of realize…”
Hassabis: 50% chance AGI requires one or two new big ideas
“It could be that there's still one or two big ideas left that need to be cracked. I don't think it's more than one or two, if there are out there. And I think You know, my betting is about fifty-fifty if that's the case.”
Hassabis: Next few years of AI advances will come from RL and search
“And I think a lot of those ideas, both from AlphaGo and AlphaZero are really, really relevant to where we are with today's foundation models. And I think a lot of that is what we're going to see of the advances the next few years.”
Hassabis: Fixing AI reasoning gaps may only require one or two tweaks
“So there's just sort of huge gaps, I think, still, but it may only be one or two tweaks that are required to fix those kind of gaps, just to be clear, but I think that's pretty, pretty obvious there are there, and that's why you get this kind of jagged intelli…”
Hassabis: AI agents will deliver full commercial value in 6 to 12 months
“I haven't seen the result yet, which I would expect once this is really delivering that full value, which I think will come in the next six to 12 months.”
Hassabis: Frontier models will call specialized tools rather than subsume them
“One thing I can think see happening is Gemini, Claude, or one of these general systems making use of alpha fold, like specialized systems as tools. I don't think we're going to have it just in one giant brain because it will have too much regression in if I pu…”
Massad: Tech-adjacent creators get the most value from Replit, not engineers
“And what we've noticed is that people that are getting the most value out of our product, Tend to be the more tech-adjacent ones. Maybe people, product managers have written code many years ago, but don't worry about the development environment setup. Don't wa…”
Massad: By Agent 5, Replit will autonomously build and market SaaS daily
“So I think perhaps Agent Five, or maybe sooner, you should be able to tell Replit, every day build me a SaaS company, and like, try to market it, and see what works, and make me some revenue.”
Massad: AI agents that continually learn inside an organization are far away
“And so for us to be able to, like, deploy an agent inside an organization, and for that agent just continues to get better for that org itself is, is such a powerful thing, but that just still seems far away.”
Massad: The company of the future will consist of builders and salespeople
“I think the company of the future is made of builders and salespeople broadly.”
Tan: Rebuilt Posterous with AI, Replacing 10 Engineers and $10M
“Along the way, I've essentially built all of Posturus, which took two years to build with a co-founder and a team of 10 engineers. I've essentially built all of my startup Posturus, which took two years, ten million dollars, and 10 engineers to build.”