The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 416 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Christodoulides: Turkey occupies 37% of Cyprus's territory
“The fact that Turkey still occupies 37% of the territory of the Republic of Cyprus.”
Prasad: Innovator drug production costs represent only 3% of the price
“See, the cost of production is not material during the patent time. Right. So they don't. Three percent, four percent.”
Prasad: China now produces 29% of all new cancer drugs globally
“29% of all new drugs are now, I think, in cancer are coming from China.”
Prasad: China saw approximately $50 billion in pharmaceutical deal making last year
“Fifty billion or so last year's deal making in from China. And all the global trials are coming from China now.”
Marks: Annual S&P 500 returns are almost never between 8% and 12%
“The return on the S&P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and 12.”
Marks: Oaktree's 40-Year Default Rate Is Roughly One-Third Market Average
“Over the last 40 years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year. And our default rate has been Roughly a third.”
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs does not depend on OpenAI for voice models
“Where we today, of course, don't depend on open AI for voice and we can stay ahead and build models that are both great in English, great internationally, great across India languages, great across European languages.”
Amodei: Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust appoints majority of board
“We have an unusual governance structure, something called the long-term benefit
Trust.
you know, it's a body that, that kind of ultimately appoints, you know, the majority of the board members for Anthropic and is, you know, made up of financially disinterest…”
Amodei: California AI bill advocated by Anthropic exempts sub-$500M revenue companies
“The regulation we've advocated for example, SB in California exempted everyone who makes under five hundred million dollars a year in, in in, in, in revenue, right? SB, SB was a transparency law, which you know basically requires companies to you know, to show…”
Amodei: Anthropic studies prove AI usage can de-skill human coders
“You know, we did some studies around code and showed that, you know, depending on how you use the model, you know, we can see, De-skilling in terms of writing code, right? There are different ways to use the model, and some of them don't cause de-skilling, and…”
Harari: Taiwan built social algorithms that reward cross-group consensus over outrage
“Like you had these models from Taiwan, that they actually built it and it worked well, that you can take the same basic premises of social media and reverse them. You can have the algorithm rewarding content, like the algorithm, first of all, in this Taiwan sy…”
Harari: Putin and Xi were caught on a hot mic discussing immortality
“A couple of months ago, they caught Putin and Xi in Beijing talking privately when they thought that nobody was listening and the microphones were on. And this was amazing, because what were Putin and Xi talking about in private? They didn't talk about Ukraine…”
Harari: 21st century governments spent more on healthcare than military
“For the first time in history, the average health care budget was around 10%. First time in history, on average, all over the world, governments spent more on healthcare than on the military.”
Dr. Jayanthi: Visual naked-eye screening for oral cancer is only 60% accurate
“The detection of oral cancer currently is just visual screen, naked eyes. There's no tool, there's no devices, you are just supposed to look with naked eyes and detect microscopic changes. That is, that's why the accuracy rate is almost as good as a flip of a …”
Al Olama: UAE government ministers are among the highest paid globally
“So, I think the UAE government, in terms of ministerial positions, is amongst the highest in terms of monthly pay in the world. So I think Singapore is higher, a few other countries are maybe higher, but we get paid quite well”
Al Olama: Sheikh Mohammed uses secret shoppers to detect government inefficiency
“Sheikh Mohammed has what he called secret choppers. So these are people that go across town. They look like me. They might look like you, who raise reports to him, who tell him, for example, that they've witnessed corruption here or inefficiency there, or they…”
Dalio: US stock wealth-to-money ratio matches 1929 and 2000 bubble peaks
“What's the money ratio right now in the United States is about eight and a half to one, and so on, and when you look at it and then also then there's what it's in. The stock market is, is right now about three to one, and that's very high. If you were to go ba…”
Musk: US debt interest payments exceed the entire military budget
“The interest payments on the debt exceed the entire military budget of the United States.”
Modi: Lakme Leads Indian Color Cosmetics Market Over Maybelline and MAC
“It is still a Lakme and a Maybelline that dominates. So Lakme is still sitting on the top of the color cosmetics charts. There's Lakme, Maybelline and MAC.”
Kamath: Premium beauty will grow significantly faster than mass segment
“Tomorrow we will care a lot more for how we look as a means of getting validation. So anything that aids that will likely grow, both in the mass and the premium segment, I think the affluent will probably adapt faster. So the premium will go significantly fast…”
Sharma: US net immigration jumped to 2-3 million annually post-pandemic
“Then what happened was that after the pandemic, and because the Biden administration was supposed to really lose towards immigration, that number jumped to two or three million people a year of people coming in.”
Sharma: US net immigration likely to fall below 500,000 this year
“This year, I'm told that number is likely to drop to less than half a million.”
Sharma: Reserve currency status cuts US borrowing costs by 50-100 bps
“Some estimates suggest somewhere between 50 to hundred basis points, half a percent to one percent of annual borrowing costs are possibly lower. Because of the fact that America has the world's reserve currency.”
Sharma: US annual home construction matches 1950s levels despite 50% population growth
“The number of new homes that America builds today is the same as a year, is the same as it was in the 19 fifties and sixties. Even though the population is 50% higher.”
Sharma: India's Tax-to-GDP Ratio Is High for Its Per Capita Income
“Because for our per capita income level at 3000 dollars or so, our tax to GDP ratio is pretty high.”
Kamath: Unprofitable AI startups generating $50M in revenue are valued at $30B
“Like, there are companies which are earning fifty million, hundred million dollars of revenue, losing a lot of money, but they're worth 10,000,000,020 1,000,000,030 billion.”
Sharma: US hedge fund startup compliance costs increased 10x over twenty years
“If you set up a hedge fund today in America, the cost of doing that has gone up 10 X. Over the last 20 years. The legal costs, the compliance costs, administrative costs. So then the threshold for you to break even has become much higher.”
Khosrowshahi: 70% of Uber drivers work under 20 hours weekly
“70% of our drivers and couriers are working less than 20 hours a week.”
F1's US Media Rights Jumped 10x After Netflix's Drive to Survive
“When that contract came up because of all the brand building I did for Formula One, that fee went up 10 times.”
Anucheth: AI signals cut Bengaluru junction wait times by 17-22%
“This is implemented in 165 junctions of Bangalore City. We have seen a tremendous reduction in the waiting time. Maybe up 17 to 22%, which is perceptible. Secondly, from operational point of view, ah, the amount of men deployed for each junction has reduced. A…”
Anucheth: Bengaluru has India's highest vehicular density at 872 per thousand
“Now, Bangalore has the highest number of vehicles per thousand. It's 872 per thousand population.”
Anucheth: Baiyappanahalli-Whitefield Metro connection reduced peak traffic by 17%
“When the biopinality line got connected to the wild field line, right? Automatically peak our traffic reduced by 17%.”
Luxon: New Zealand offers a three-year residency pathway for NZ$5M
“That's why we've just launched actually what we call the active investor visa. You know, if you want to put five million dollars New Zealand into investment in New Zealand there's a pathway to residency in three years.”
Energize Has Three Clinical Studies and CDSCO Approval for Vagus Nerve Wearable
“And we've got three clinical studies under our belt, one clinical trial where CDSU approved, we're filing for an FDA license.”
Modi: Indian government eliminated around 40,000 regulatory compliances
“اس لئے ہم نے کیا کیا قریب چالیس ہزار کمپلائنسز ہم نے نکال دی ہے”
The computing infrastructure required for AI inference vastly exceeds training
“It's a lot of computing infrastructure. It's actually much bigger than the infrastructure for learning.”
LLM inference costs dropped 100x in two years, far outpacing Moore's law
“I think the cost of inference for LLM has gone down by a factor of a hundred in two years. I mean, it's just, it's amazing, right? It's way faster than Moore's law.”
Shankar: India Urban Population to Reach 600M by 2030 Amid Supply Deficit
“Right now, urban cities are at 35% urbanized. Like, 35% of the population lives in urban cities, which is about four hundred and eighty million people. This is expected to go up to 40% by some 20, 30 or so, which is 600, which is, sorry, yeah, about six hundre…”
Virwani: Indian REITs will see higher appreciation than US REITs
“India will see higher appreciation, I would say, than foreign REITs, or like, you know, the US REITs and things like that, so.”
Virwani: India is Blackstone's most profitable market outside the US
“India has been very, very successful for them. I think it's been their most profitable market outside of the US.”
Shankar: India office leasing will probably hit 70M sq ft in 2024
“India is going to have its probably most successful year of office leasing. I think just in the first half of this year, some thirty four million square feet of office space has been transacted. And that's half the year. Second half of the year is usually more…”
Shankar: GCCs account for 28% to 30% of Indian office leasing
“The reason why GCCs keep coming up is because from the commercial office take-up, they're taking up almost 28 to 30% of your office space. I think now, co-working was at 25, 26%. It's come down to 21%. IT has actually come down to maybe 10 to 15% from new spac…”
Nilekani: Indian government asked for unique ID, not digital ID
“No, the government asked me to build a unique ID. There was no digital in it. I made it digital.”
Nilekani: Digital rails compressed 46 years of banking penetration into nine
“So on the normal GDP, if you had looked at it, it'll take in 46 years to get to the level of banking penetration that we did in nine years, because you accelerated with digital technology.”
Kamath: Multiplex Occupancy Rates Are Lower Than Five Years Ago
“Like, there's a couple of companies I'm a small part of, and let's say occupancy rates in multiplexes are lower than where they were five years ago. It's harder for a multiplex to make money.”