Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio explains how he calculates macro wealth ratios compared to actual liquid money to evaluate asset bubbles.
Insight
Dalio: Gold is the only money without counterparty or confiscation risk
“Gold is the only money That you can have and nobody has to give you anything to have it. Other money, all other money is dependent on somebody giving you something. Okay. Whether they give you, and so it's unique in that it's confiscation risk is less than oth…”
Insight
Dalio: Earning interest on gold-linked assets reflects credit risk, not ownership
“So what you're getting paid for is credit risk, right? So it's not gold. It's a promise to get your gold back, right? Then that's what money was. And that's why it would have an interest rate. You have an interest rate that on the promise to get your gold back…”
Opinion
Dalio: Investors should hold 5% to 15% of their portfolios in gold
“An individual, and most investors should have between five and 15% of their portfolio in a gold or an alternative money.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dalio predicts central banks are unlikely to hold Bitcoin as reserve wealth
“Bitcoin is limited in supply, and its perception of money, it is a form of money, it, it's perceived as money, as a storehold of wealth, that is unlikely to be significantly held by central banks, and many others, because of a number of Problems it has.”
Opinion
Dalio: Current financial markets are in a bubble vulnerable to popping
“So in my opinion, we're in a bubble. Okay. By various measures of it being in a bubble and people feeling very wealthy, but you have that vulnerability.”
Opinion
Dalio: The post-1945 multilateral rules-based global governance order has ended
“That world order has gone from a world order that it was a multilateral world order, sort of with rules like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization and the World
A health organization, and the world, this is, you know, the world bank, and the worl…”