why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Fishkin: Mental illness is incompatible with being a startup CEO
“Mental and emotional illness are, don't make for a good match with the CEO role in a growing company. They are not what the traits that inspire people to give their best.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2019
Fishkin: Moz has 23,000 paying customers and 6.3% monthly churn
“We have 23, about 23,000 paying customers, and so in order to have net negative revenue churn on a self-service model with 6.3% average monthly churn, we would have to be upselling customers at a, at an insane rate, right?”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2019
Moz Pro generates 85% to 90% of Moz's revenue
“Does all the marketing costs go into just pro, which is essentially our you know, the product that I'm talking about, our largest product. Which is responsible for 85 to 90% of our revenue.”
Disclosure
Fishkin: Moz will increase spend only if gross churn drops under 4%
“I think, look, if we get down to four percent maybe or under gross churn or below two percent for qualified customer churn, then we would be feeling a lot more comfortable about dumping dollars in.”
Assertion Supported
Fishkin: Moz did $850k in 2007 revenue across software and consulting
“So the full year, 2007, I think revenue was 850,000 dollars. It was 400 K in consulting and four 50 in software.”
Assertion Supported
Fishkin: Moz software revenue grew to $1.1M in 2008 and $2.2M in 2009
“I think we did 300,000 dollars worth of consulting in 2008 and software went to 1.1 million. And then the next year it was, gosh, what was it? It was like 2.2 million in software and 900,000 in consulting.”
Assertion Partly supported
Fishkin: Moz generated around $39.3M in revenue in 2015
“I think we were at 30, was it 39000039.3, something around there.”
Prediction Held up
Fishkin: Moz will reach the low $40 millions in revenue in 2016
“We'll be at the low forties this year.”
Disclosure
Fishkin: Moz does not serve enterprise customers and caps at $500/month
“And we are much less in that realm because we don't actually serve enterprise customers. So we top out at about 500 bucks a month.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2016
Moz ARPU was around $119.60 per month in April 2016
“A 119 dollars. A little more than that, like one 19 60, something like that.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2019
Fishkin: Moz's customer acquisition cost is between $90 and $120
“But the nice thing is it is definitely somewhere between, depending on how you want to calculate it, 90 dollars and a 120 dollars.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2019
Fishkin: Moz's average customer lifetime is about 9.5 to 10 months
“If you want to call it across the entire cohort, I think average customer life is like 9.5 months or something, 10 months, something like that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fishkin: Moz generates 150 to 200 new free trials every day
“Essentially we're being moderately conservative, I'd say with marketing spend, not trying to fill the funnel dramatically more than what we already have, which is between a 152 hundred new free trials every day.”
Assertion Supported
Fishkin: Moz board and leadership replaced him as CEO with Sarah Bird
“I talked with my investors, my board and with my executive team, and we made the call to replace me with Sarah bird, who'd been my chief operating officer for a long time and is one of my best friends in the world.”