StarZero All shows Try the podcast clipper →

Jun 16, 2016 · 19m · top-founders

The Math Behind Donald Trumps Brain, EP 293: Brian Ley,

Brian Lay · 9m spoken Nathan Latka · 8m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of The Top, host Nathan Latka interviews AlphaRank CEO Brian Ley to explore how computational epidemiology and time-series transaction data map social contagion, network lifetime value, and viral political messaging.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nathan holds 46.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Nathan as informed peer 2.3 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 0.7 Nathan pushing back 1.0
05100:0010:000:44–3:42 · Nathan as informed peer 1/10 Weekly Cash Giveaway Announcement and Entry Details Nathan introduces Brian and admits he cannot pronounce 'computational epidemiology' due to not graduating college. Brian politely defines the concept and explains social contagion dynamics.3:42–5:56 · Nathan as informed peer 1/10 Discovering Network Patterns in Nightclub Lines and Dining Brian delivers an extended story detailing how observing nightclub queues and Chipotle customer behaviors led to his time-series network mapping thesis. Nathan passively listens and offers brief acknowledgments.5:59–9:38 · Nathan as informed peer 5/10 AlphaRank Metrics, Capitalization, and Technical Architecture Nathan pushes Brian to clarify actual dollar investment rather than metaphorical 'years of life' and drills into cap table specifics and the viral coefficient formula.9:40–11:56 · Nathan as informed peer 2/10 Mathematical Psychology and Donald Trump's Memetic Strategy Nathan redirects the conversation to Donald Trump's memetic strategy, allowing Brian to lecture on mammalian emotional brain centers and controversial theories regarding SSRIs.11:56–14:14 · Nathan as informed peer 6/10 Viral Equations and Superorganism Network Dynamics Nathan articulates the mathematical viral coefficient formula to model political outreach. Brian accepts the premise but reframes humanity as a single superorganism requiring network jumps rather than broad demographic bucketing.14:14–16:33 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 Connecting with Brian Ley and AlphaRank Resources This segment consists of quick social handle sharing followed by Nathan delivering promotional sponsor ads for FreshBooks and HostGator.16:34–18:25 · Nathan as informed peer 1/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Brian Ley Nathan runs through his standard Famous Five rapid-fire questions covering favorite business books, Richard Branson, sleep habits, and health lessons.0:44–3:42 · Guest teaching 3/10 Weekly Cash Giveaway Announcement and Entry Details Nathan introduces Brian and admits he cannot pronounce 'computational epidemiology' due to not graduating college. Brian politely defines the concept and explains social contagion dynamics.3:42–5:56 · Guest teaching 4/10 Discovering Network Patterns in Nightclub Lines and Dining Brian delivers an extended story detailing how observing nightclub queues and Chipotle customer behaviors led to his time-series network mapping thesis. Nathan passively listens and offers brief acknowledgments.5:59–9:38 · Guest teaching 2/10 AlphaRank Metrics, Capitalization, and Technical Architecture Nathan pushes Brian to clarify actual dollar investment rather than metaphorical 'years of life' and drills into cap table specifics and the viral coefficient formula.9:40–11:56 · Guest teaching 5/10 Mathematical Psychology and Donald Trump's Memetic Strategy Nathan redirects the conversation to Donald Trump's memetic strategy, allowing Brian to lecture on mammalian emotional brain centers and controversial theories regarding SSRIs.11:56–14:14 · Guest teaching 6/10 Viral Equations and Superorganism Network Dynamics Nathan articulates the mathematical viral coefficient formula to model political outreach. Brian accepts the premise but reframes humanity as a single superorganism requiring network jumps rather than broad demographic bucketing.14:14–16:33 · Guest teaching 0/10 Connecting with Brian Ley and AlphaRank Resources This segment consists of quick social handle sharing followed by Nathan delivering promotional sponsor ads for FreshBooks and HostGator.16:34–18:25 · Guest teaching 1/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Brian Ley Nathan runs through his standard Famous Five rapid-fire questions covering favorite business books, Richard Branson, sleep habits, and health lessons.0:44–3:42 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Weekly Cash Giveaway Announcement and Entry Details Nathan introduces Brian and admits he cannot pronounce 'computational epidemiology' due to not graduating college. Brian politely defines the concept and explains social contagion dynamics.3:42–5:56 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Discovering Network Patterns in Nightclub Lines and Dining Brian delivers an extended story detailing how observing nightclub queues and Chipotle customer behaviors led to his time-series network mapping thesis. Nathan passively listens and offers brief acknowledgments.5:59–9:38 · Guest disagreement 1/10 AlphaRank Metrics, Capitalization, and Technical Architecture Nathan pushes Brian to clarify actual dollar investment rather than metaphorical 'years of life' and drills into cap table specifics and the viral coefficient formula.9:40–11:56 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Mathematical Psychology and Donald Trump's Memetic Strategy Nathan redirects the conversation to Donald Trump's memetic strategy, allowing Brian to lecture on mammalian emotional brain centers and controversial theories regarding SSRIs.11:56–14:14 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Viral Equations and Superorganism Network Dynamics Nathan articulates the mathematical viral coefficient formula to model political outreach. Brian accepts the premise but reframes humanity as a single superorganism requiring network jumps rather than broad demographic bucketing.14:14–16:33 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Connecting with Brian Ley and AlphaRank Resources This segment consists of quick social handle sharing followed by Nathan delivering promotional sponsor ads for FreshBooks and HostGator.16:34–18:25 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Brian Ley Nathan runs through his standard Famous Five rapid-fire questions covering favorite business books, Richard Branson, sleep habits, and health lessons.0:44–3:42 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Weekly Cash Giveaway Announcement and Entry Details Nathan introduces Brian and admits he cannot pronounce 'computational epidemiology' due to not graduating college. Brian politely defines the concept and explains social contagion dynamics.3:42–5:56 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Discovering Network Patterns in Nightclub Lines and Dining Brian delivers an extended story detailing how observing nightclub queues and Chipotle customer behaviors led to his time-series network mapping thesis. Nathan passively listens and offers brief acknowledgments.5:59–9:38 · Nathan pushing back 3/10 AlphaRank Metrics, Capitalization, and Technical Architecture Nathan pushes Brian to clarify actual dollar investment rather than metaphorical 'years of life' and drills into cap table specifics and the viral coefficient formula.9:40–11:56 · Nathan pushing back 1/10 Mathematical Psychology and Donald Trump's Memetic Strategy Nathan redirects the conversation to Donald Trump's memetic strategy, allowing Brian to lecture on mammalian emotional brain centers and controversial theories regarding SSRIs.11:56–14:14 · Nathan pushing back 2/10 Viral Equations and Superorganism Network Dynamics Nathan articulates the mathematical viral coefficient formula to model political outreach. Brian accepts the premise but reframes humanity as a single superorganism requiring network jumps rather than broad demographic bucketing.14:14–16:33 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 Connecting with Brian Ley and AlphaRank Resources This segment consists of quick social handle sharing followed by Nathan delivering promotional sponsor ads for FreshBooks and HostGator.16:34–18:25 · Nathan pushing back 1/10 The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Brian Ley Nathan runs through his standard Famous Five rapid-fire questions covering favorite business books, Richard Branson, sleep habits, and health lessons.

speaking balance: gold is Nathan, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Nathan 68.2% · guest 31.8%0:00 · Nathan 68.2% · guest 31.8%3:00 · Nathan 7.9% · guest 92.1%3:00 · Nathan 7.9% · guest 92.1%6:00 · Nathan 41.8% · guest 58.2%6:00 · Nathan 41.8% · guest 58.2%9:00 · Nathan 13.3% · guest 86.7%9:00 · Nathan 13.3% · guest 86.7%12:00 · Nathan 45.4% · guest 54.6%12:00 · Nathan 45.4% · guest 54.6%15:00 · Nathan 81.7% · guest 18.3%15:00 · Nathan 81.7% · guest 18.3%18:00 · Nathan 79.7% · guest 20.3%18:00 · Nathan 79.7% · guest 20.3%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 11:01 Unconventional claims on media coverage and SSRIs

Brian makes assertive, contrarian claims regarding mass shooting media coverage and unprompted assertions about SSRIs causing violence.

 Hardest push from Nathan ▶ 6:17 Cutting off figurative answers to demand hard capital figures

Nathan interrupts Brian's figurative response about investing 'years of my life' to explicitly demand the exact dollar amount of capital invested.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 2:10 Explaining social contagion across networks

Brian educates Nathan on computational epidemiology, illustrating how obesity, happiness, and product adoption spread through networks like viral infections.

 Nathan holds their own ▶ 11:56 Formulating viral coefficient math

Nathan demonstrates domain expertise by laying out the viral coefficient equation (K = I * conversion rate) and applying it to political communication networks.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicNathan as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementNathan pushing backWhy
Weekly Cash Giveaway Announcement and Entry Details 1300 Nathan introduces Brian and admits he cannot pronounce 'computational epidemiology' due to not graduating college. Brian politely defines the concept and explains social contagion dynamics.
Discovering Network Patterns in Nightclub Lines and Dining 1400 Brian delivers an extended story detailing how observing nightclub queues and Chipotle customer behaviors led to his time-series network mapping thesis. Nathan passively listens and offers brief acknowledgments.
AlphaRank Metrics, Capitalization, and Technical Architecture 5213 Nathan pushes Brian to clarify actual dollar investment rather than metaphorical 'years of life' and drills into cap table specifics and the viral coefficient formula.
Mathematical Psychology and Donald Trump's Memetic Strategy 2521 Nathan redirects the conversation to Donald Trump's memetic strategy, allowing Brian to lecture on mammalian emotional brain centers and controversial theories regarding SSRIs.
Viral Equations and Superorganism Network Dynamics 6622 Nathan articulates the mathematical viral coefficient formula to model political outreach. Brian accepts the premise but reframes humanity as a single superorganism requiring network jumps rather than broad demographic bucketing.
Connecting with Brian Ley and AlphaRank Resources 0000 This segment consists of quick social handle sharing followed by Nathan delivering promotional sponsor ads for FreshBooks and HostGator.
The Famous Five Rapid-Fire Questions with Brian Ley 1101 Nathan runs through his standard Famous Five rapid-fire questions covering favorite business books, Richard Branson, sleep habits, and health lessons.

Statements from this episode (8)

Insight
Brian Ley: Happiness, Obesity, and Purchasing Decisions Spread via Social Contagion
“Happiness spreads through human networks, obesity spreads through human networks, decisions to buy a product or upgrade to a specific technology fashion would go to going to see a movie. All of those things are what's called socially contagious, meaning that o…”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 2:19
Insight
Ley: Repeating sequential time-series patterns reveal hidden social network structure
“So if that pattern repeats enough, you can draw a connection or an edge and further network structure.”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 5:48
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AlphaRank requires only three data points for time-series analysis
“So, you can think about how AlphaRank works as we take time series data in, and in that time series data, there needs to be a minimum of three things. You need a persistent unique ID, you need a product ID, and you need a timestamp.”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 7:53
Opinion
Ley: Mocking Donald Trump amplifies his reach through emotional contagion
“He's basically agreeing with as many people as he can, and he's doing it on their hot button issues, and because of that, people get really riled up about it, and emotion is contagious, so they're basically, he's hacking people's brains to get free press and s…”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 10:38
Insight
Ley: Publicly discussing mass shootings spreads them like a meme
“You don't want to show when someone, when there's a mass shooting, don't talk about it. You're going to spread it. All right. It's a meme.”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 11:04
Opinion
Ley: SSRIs are very likely causing many mass shooting incidents
“And then the second thing is that it's very likely that SSRIs are actually causing a lot of these.”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 11:12
Insight
Human networks act as superorganisms where central nodes carry outsized value
“Think of humanity not as a bunch of individual people, but as a single superorganism with every individual kind of acting like a neuron. Right. Spreading information and serving as a routing mechanism and passing it through. So, and that means not everyone is …”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 13:26
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Donald Trump must jump to new demographic networks to win in 2016
“And so my prediction would be if we're right about Donald Trump, right? So he's doing generic bucketing right now. If he's as smart as we think he is, or at least as clever in this particular area he's going to have to jump networks, meaning you're not going t…”
Brian Lay Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 13:46
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 2,600 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.

Try the podcast clipper Learn more