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Feb 2, 2023 · 16m · top-founders

From $350k to $1.4m last 12 months, this forecasting tool hit 550 paying customers, $10m valuation

Logan Burchett · 10m spoken Nathan Latka · 5m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of Conversations with Nathan Latka, Forecaster.co co-founder Logan Burchett explains how the company scaled to $1.4 million ARR, adopted expense-based pricing, implemented a hybrid analyst onboarding model, and is navigating an $8 million Series A fundraise.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Nathan holds 33.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Nathan as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 2.0 Guest disagreement 0.8 Nathan pushing back 3.4
05100:0010:000:00–2:17 · Nathan as informed peer 0/10 SaaS Open Conference Announcement and Promotion Nathan delivers a solo promotional intro for SaaS Open and sets up Forecaster's key baseline metrics before introducing Logan Burchett.2:17–4:29 · Nathan as informed peer 6/10 Forecasting Market Landscape and Competitor M&A Dynamics Nathan probes the viability of forecasting tools given competitor exits like Pry and Finmark, while Logan explains how Carta's cap table model paved the way for financial modeling software.4:29–7:29 · Nathan as informed peer 7/10 Revenue Evolution and Transition to Expense-Based Pricing Nathan does live mental math to challenge Logan on average contract values and pricing percentages relative to client monthly expenses, leading Logan to clarify historical versus new contract averages.7:29–13:21 · Nathan as informed peer 7/10 Customer Discovery and Implementation of Retroactive Billing Tiers Nathan shows deep background prep by referencing a specific recent hire named Sandeep from LinkedIn, pressing Logan to define the exact day-to-day workflow of their internal financial analysts.13:22–16:22 · Nathan as informed peer 7/10 Series A Fundraising Strategy in a Shifted Venture Market Nathan breaks down the round history and challenges Logan's Series A target of a 40 million dollar post valuation, pointing out it represents a lofty 28x to 29x multiple in a tight VC market.0:00–2:17 · Guest teaching 0/10 SaaS Open Conference Announcement and Promotion Nathan delivers a solo promotional intro for SaaS Open and sets up Forecaster's key baseline metrics before introducing Logan Burchett.2:17–4:29 · Guest teaching 3/10 Forecasting Market Landscape and Competitor M&A Dynamics Nathan probes the viability of forecasting tools given competitor exits like Pry and Finmark, while Logan explains how Carta's cap table model paved the way for financial modeling software.4:29–7:29 · Guest teaching 2/10 Revenue Evolution and Transition to Expense-Based Pricing Nathan does live mental math to challenge Logan on average contract values and pricing percentages relative to client monthly expenses, leading Logan to clarify historical versus new contract averages.7:29–13:21 · Guest teaching 3/10 Customer Discovery and Implementation of Retroactive Billing Tiers Nathan shows deep background prep by referencing a specific recent hire named Sandeep from LinkedIn, pressing Logan to define the exact day-to-day workflow of their internal financial analysts.13:22–16:22 · Guest teaching 2/10 Series A Fundraising Strategy in a Shifted Venture Market Nathan breaks down the round history and challenges Logan's Series A target of a 40 million dollar post valuation, pointing out it represents a lofty 28x to 29x multiple in a tight VC market.0:00–2:17 · Guest disagreement 0/10 SaaS Open Conference Announcement and Promotion Nathan delivers a solo promotional intro for SaaS Open and sets up Forecaster's key baseline metrics before introducing Logan Burchett.2:17–4:29 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Forecasting Market Landscape and Competitor M&A Dynamics Nathan probes the viability of forecasting tools given competitor exits like Pry and Finmark, while Logan explains how Carta's cap table model paved the way for financial modeling software.4:29–7:29 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Revenue Evolution and Transition to Expense-Based Pricing Nathan does live mental math to challenge Logan on average contract values and pricing percentages relative to client monthly expenses, leading Logan to clarify historical versus new contract averages.7:29–13:21 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Customer Discovery and Implementation of Retroactive Billing Tiers Nathan shows deep background prep by referencing a specific recent hire named Sandeep from LinkedIn, pressing Logan to define the exact day-to-day workflow of their internal financial analysts.13:22–16:22 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Series A Fundraising Strategy in a Shifted Venture Market Nathan breaks down the round history and challenges Logan's Series A target of a 40 million dollar post valuation, pointing out it represents a lofty 28x to 29x multiple in a tight VC market.0:00–2:17 · Nathan pushing back 0/10 SaaS Open Conference Announcement and Promotion Nathan delivers a solo promotional intro for SaaS Open and sets up Forecaster's key baseline metrics before introducing Logan Burchett.2:17–4:29 · Nathan pushing back 3/10 Forecasting Market Landscape and Competitor M&A Dynamics Nathan probes the viability of forecasting tools given competitor exits like Pry and Finmark, while Logan explains how Carta's cap table model paved the way for financial modeling software.4:29–7:29 · Nathan pushing back 5/10 Revenue Evolution and Transition to Expense-Based Pricing Nathan does live mental math to challenge Logan on average contract values and pricing percentages relative to client monthly expenses, leading Logan to clarify historical versus new contract averages.7:29–13:21 · Nathan pushing back 4/10 Customer Discovery and Implementation of Retroactive Billing Tiers Nathan shows deep background prep by referencing a specific recent hire named Sandeep from LinkedIn, pressing Logan to define the exact day-to-day workflow of their internal financial analysts.13:22–16:22 · Nathan pushing back 5/10 Series A Fundraising Strategy in a Shifted Venture Market Nathan breaks down the round history and challenges Logan's Series A target of a 40 million dollar post valuation, pointing out it represents a lofty 28x to 29x multiple in a tight VC market.

speaking balance: gold is Nathan, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Nathan 83.8% · guest 16.2%0:00 · Nathan 83.8% · guest 16.2%3:00 · Nathan 8.8% · guest 91.2%3:00 · Nathan 8.8% · guest 91.2%6:00 · Nathan 34.4% · guest 65.6%6:00 · Nathan 34.4% · guest 65.6%9:00 · Nathan 21.1% · guest 78.9%9:00 · Nathan 21.1% · guest 78.9%12:00 · Nathan 24.2% · guest 75.8%12:00 · Nathan 24.2% · guest 75.8%15:00 · Nathan 22.3% · guest 77.7%15:00 · Nathan 22.3% · guest 77.7%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:01 Logan resists naming a hard valuation number

Logan hesitates to declare a rigid valuation target, insisting on letting market dynamics dictate price before conceding a 20 percent dilution target.

 Hardest push from Nathan ▶ 6:08 Nathan flags inconsistent ACV figures

Nathan halts the conversation to recompute 120k MRR across 550 customers, calling out the math conflict with Logan's stated 1400 dollar average.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:30 Logan explains why pure SaaS fails for venture modeling

Logan draws on his background as a fractional CFO to explain why self-serve software fails for early-stage founders without hands-on analyst onboarding.

 Nathan holds their own ▶ 11:44 Nathan pulls specific recent hiring data from LinkedIn

Nathan demonstrates sharp interview prep by citing the exact name, location, and previous accelerator background of an analyst hired just days prior.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicNathan as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementNathan pushing backWhy
SaaS Open Conference Announcement and Promotion 0000 Nathan delivers a solo promotional intro for SaaS Open and sets up Forecaster's key baseline metrics before introducing Logan Burchett.
Forecasting Market Landscape and Competitor M&A Dynamics 6313 Nathan probes the viability of forecasting tools given competitor exits like Pry and Finmark, while Logan explains how Carta's cap table model paved the way for financial modeling software.
Revenue Evolution and Transition to Expense-Based Pricing 7215 Nathan does live mental math to challenge Logan on average contract values and pricing percentages relative to client monthly expenses, leading Logan to clarify historical versus new contract averages.
Customer Discovery and Implementation of Retroactive Billing Tiers 7314 Nathan shows deep background prep by referencing a specific recent hire named Sandeep from LinkedIn, pressing Logan to define the exact day-to-day workflow of their internal financial analysts.
Series A Fundraising Strategy in a Shifted Venture Market 7215 Nathan breaks down the round history and challenges Logan's Series A target of a 40 million dollar post valuation, pointing out it represents a lofty 28x to 29x multiple in a tight VC market.

Statements from this episode (13)

Assertion Supported
Burchett: Startup Pry Exited for $90 Million
“We of course know that Pry exited for ninety million.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 3:27
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Burchett: 98% of Financial Models Are Built in Excel
“98% of financial models are built in Excel.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 3:57
Disclosure
Forecaster.co Reaches 550 Customers and $1.4M in Revenue
“We've got about 550 customers right now doing about 1.4 million in revenue.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 4:09
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Forecaster ARR expanded from ~$360K to $1.4M in one year
“So we were, so 1.4 today, we were doing about just shy of 30,000 a monthly reoccurring revenue about a year ago. So like high twenties now we're at about one 20 a monthly reoccurring revenue.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 4:34
Disclosure
Burchett: Forecaster adopted expense-based pricing model inspired by Pry
“Here in November, we really started rolling out our variable pricing model, which similar to Pry, this is inspired by Pry, we're going to be pricing our annual contracts based off of the monthly expenses of the customer.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 5:27
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Burchett: Forecaster's top customer contract increased from $2K to $15K annually
“So like our highest paid customer right now pays us about 15,000 dollars per year. But prior to that, they were paying the highest paid customer paid us 2000 dollars per year.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 6:27
Disclosure
Forecaster prices plans retroactively using three-month average customer expenses
“We do it retroactively. So we look at your like really like the average of the last Three months worth of expenses in order to try to like you know, deal with seasonality.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 8:53
Disclosure
Forecaster has 33 employees split evenly across growth, analysts, and engineering
“So we have 33 employees right now. So you can pretty much split it evenly between growth, financial analysts and development. Like that's really kind of like, it's almost like a third.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 9:33
Insight
Burchett: Pure self-serve financial modeling software fails seed-stage founders
“And we just knew that if you plop somebody and kind of like a deeper, like financial analysis software, they're going to fall flat on their face. It's kind of like a specialized business function. So having a seed stage founder jump in and just say, here's the…”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 9:58
Disclosure
Forecaster only sells annual contracts paired with a dedicated financial analyst
“What we do instead was we only do annual contracts. We pair them up with a financial analyst, a finance expert, specifically for venture finance.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 10:14
Assertion Supported
Burchett: Forecaster raised $750k pre-seed and $2.5M seed round
“In the pre-seed we raised, we oversubscribed a 600,000 dollar round up to seven 50. At the seed round, we raised 200 2.5 million.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 14:11
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Burchett: Forecaster closed seed round at $10M post-money valuation
“It was at a ten million dollar post.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 14:53
Disclosure
Burchett: Forecaster targets $40M post-money valuation for Series A
“We're raising eight million dollars. So if you're trying to sell roughly, if you're trying to keep it in that 20%, that'd be a forty million dollar post. So that's kind of what we're hoping for.”
Logan Burchett Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 15:09
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