The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 48 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Party Trick claims a $47 million enterprise sales pipeline for year one
“We have over 80 partners on our consumer platform that we've been talking to about this, and we actually have a forty-seven million dollar pipeline for year one.”
Jorge Rios: BridgeFi is the only company making Signal Protocol work offline
“We are the only company in the world that has managed to make the Signal Protocol work offline.”
Calvin: Vital Audio achieves 96% accuracy compared to gold standard ECG
“So we conducted two studies in partnerships with NYU Langone Cardiology Department and Zip Care Clinic. Reached more than 500 participants across the New York metropolitan area. The technology actually performs at 96% accuracy compared to gold Standard ECG.”
Desai: Kinemetrix will probably be acquired within five years
“Five years from now, I think we are probably going to be bought out by some medical device, either remote video monitoring, someone that wants that software solution that plugs in place for their product.”
Bannister has hard rules against 50-50 co-founder splits and early acquisitions
“I have a hard rule. I have very few hard rules, and that's just one of them. If I hear that, I'm out. And the other one's fifty-fifty partnership, unless they're brothers or sisters.”
Yin: Christy's Chips is easily a billion-dollar business
“If she continues, it's easily a billion dollar business. Easily.”
Banister: Gecko Materials' valuation is fair for its business type
“By the way, your valuation is fine for what the type of business you are. It's, we're more commenting on the types of businesses we see. And they're, it's not about you. It's just, we do software mostly. Is really what it comes down to. But you could be a Spac…”
Hudson: Four or five top Precursor outcomes will be product companies
“We have four or five of our biggest outcomes at the firm level will be product companies, actually not software companies.”
Sánchez: $5T in Manufacturing Trade to Shift to LatAm
“It is expected that five trillion dollars from manufacturing trade will shift into Latin America in the next five years.”
Elizabeth Yin: VC-backed lending startups struggle with growth-quality trade-offs
“Lending companies have a hard time getting to scale as a VC backed business, because you don't want to obviously force bad loans, right? But there's always sort of this pressure to grow.”
Hudson: Lending businesses lack moats beyond lower cost of capital
“You can compete on two things, like loan quality, And price. Both of which put pressure on your ability to scale the business. Either you have to compete over lower quality loans, which will push your loss ratios up, or to win the good ones, you have to make l…”
Hudson: Most B2B SaaS is just a commoditized database with a UI
“I think most B to B SaaS things are basically commodity. They're a database with a UI on top if you really push hard enough. Like that's what they are.”
Hudson: Startups raising $2M to $3M inevitably burn it within 24 months
“Look, I think one of the big mistakes I've seen companies in our portfolio make is they take two to three million dollars, and it's very hard to have two to three million dollars and not magically have it all disappear in 24.
Everyone's like, oh, don't worry.
…”
Bill Smith: Shipt and Landing would have failed if launched two years later
“The timing of everything that I created, if you just rolled it forward two years, it wouldn't have worked. In, InSight wouldn't have worked. Shipt would have missed, completely missed the window. Even landing, we would have missed the window because there's ju…”
Hudson: Generative imagery will be deflationary as clients capture the savings
“My current thesis is it's going to be very deflationary, and the customers are going to want to recoup and claw back a big chunk of that savings.”
Williams: RedDrop will reach $100M revenue within three years
“I have no doubt that we will be
Eight figures in 18 months, and nine figures in probably 24 to 36 for sure.”
Ghai: Nectar usage increased class grade averages by a full letter
“Every single class that used Nectar Was able to increase the class average by a full letter grade.”
Conwell: Check VC references by calling founders of failed portfolio companies
“Don't ask the investors for references to founders. Go to their portfolio list on their website and find a company that's no longer in existence. And reach out to that founder on LinkedIn. A founder of a failed company is going to give you a lot more informati…”
Robbins: Handel generates higher revenue and margins than typical 7-Elevens
“Our stores generate more revenue and a higher margin than a typical seven 11, and so we see the future as very bright for our business.”
Robbins: Handel's customer acquisition cost is under $1
“So our customer acquisition cost is actually under a dollar.”
Young: Fabric shower liners are coated with toxic PFAS forever chemicals
“The material you're talking about it isn't, it's not cloth. It's a polyester. It's covered in what's called a DWR, durable water resistant, which is made of a PFA, which is a highly carcinogenic forever chemical. And when you stand next to it in the shower, th…”
Young: Outlines' customer acquisition cost actually dropped post-iOS 14 update
“In fact, post the iOS update, our CAC actually reduced, and it's continued to stay stable this year. So we're still first purchase profitable.”
Bevz Founder Jason Vigo Discloses He Owns Only 14% Equity
“So I have 14%... Our founding team together has about 70%, so it's a combo of me, my co-founder Victor, and my CTO.”
Yin: Startup Founders Need at Least 20% Equity to Avoid Demotivation
“I think you have to be at least at 20%. A lot of things are psychological and maybe you're okay with things now, but as you go along and everybody gets diluted down, like you're gonna feel less excited about the company as things go on, right?”
PE firm forgave $2M in brewery debt for AGS equity
“What they did, so they basically forgave two million dollars worth of debt that was owed to the, to them from the brewery to set the valuation, and then that's how we kind of got things started. So they didn't put any new money into it for this particular roun…”
Amateur Golf Society founding team retains only 25% equity
“Ah, 25%. So it's 20 for myself and then five percent for my COO.”
Hershberg: Private equity controls three of five Amateur Golf Society board seats
“So there's five board seats. There's three for the private equity guys, one for myself and one for the group of fellow Cornellians.”
Puga: Building a billion-dollar LatAm startup requires multi-country expansion
“So we are not going to make it just with one country in Latin America. That's impossible. We're not going to make it. That's what I saw in the past.”
Fielding: Enterprise procurement is where software deals go to die
“Over the last decade of me investing, I've heard the procurement pitch many times. It's kind of where deals go to die. Everyone hates it. Many people have tried to have SaaS companies around this or SaaS solutions.”
Lagunas: Levee converted world's largest hotel brand into an active customer
“Since we launched in July, we launched a paid pilot with the largest hotel brand in the world who is now an active customer.”
Lagunas: Levee has over $30 million in its sales pipeline
“We have over thirty million dollars in our sales pipeline right now from brands that are coming from all over the world to implement our solution.”
Lagunas claims there is no data left to train desk-worker AI models
“When we look at, you know, AI, there's no more data to train these models on. There's no more data to do anything from like a desk worker perspective.”
Yin: Levee is not a true AI company and lacks unique technology
“Because I think this is not an AI company, and, like, the technology is not unique.”
Forenza: Aware's ear cuff will be a fashion statement destigmatizing mental wellness
“We believe that it's going to be a fashion statement, but also a way to tell people, I care about my mental wellness. So this is a way to remove also the stigma that is associated to mental wellness, and that's why we believe it's going to be really powerful.”
Forenza: Mapping arousal and valence biomarkers allows deriving all human emotions
“You have these two biomarkers that are arousal and valence. These are terms used in neuroscience. By mapping these two dimensions, you can derive all the different emotions.”
Yin: Stress wearables struggle with retention by not solving the root problem
“It was actually pretty good at, like, vibrating whenever I was stressed, but aside from someone to take a deep breath, like, I think one of the shortcomings is what is that final step, and that's something that a device cannot solve. So, I think there's this q…”
Forenza: EEG measures mental stress much more accurately than HRV-based wearables
“Exactly, because it's a measure of HRV. We tap into the central nervous system, which is where everything originates, and so we can have much, much higher accuracy, The real time component of EEG is phenomenal. We give you a sample of your emotion every second…”
Hudson: Single-variable wearables are harder to build today than a decade ago
“I just think single variable wearables are really hard now. I was probably more bullish on them five or 10 years ago when we didn't have as many things.”
Muccio: VCs clinging to traditional rules will get left behind
“VCs used to hold all the power, and they demanded a lot from founders, but now founders seem to be realizing how much power they have too, and there's more early-stage VCs than ever to choose from. So the ones that continue to play by the old rules We'll get l…”
Muccio: UI, UX, and brand create defensible moats for AI apps
“Looking at some of these more mature apps like jungle where you realize like, no, actually the user interface can be a moat. The user experience, the brand becomes the moat. And yeah, everybody's using the same models on the other side, but like, The end user …”
Elizabeth Yin: Every startup founder should pitch with multiple plans
“I think every founder should come in with multiple plans.”
Josh Muccio: Founders should never name a price without existing terms
“Founders, never, ever say a price for your round unless you already have terms.”
Trofimova: CPG brands spend $2T globally on untraceable marketing
“It's two trillion dollars globally is what they spend on marketing, completely in the blind, with no traceability.”
Yin offers Sundae $150K at a $7M post-money valuation cap
“I unfortunately can't get behind the 10, but I would put out my offer at one 50 at seven post on a save.”
McAndrew: I maintain an anti-management consultant stance on founders
“And I'm always dubious about management consultants. You know, that's like, I definitely have an anti management consultant stance and she won me over anyway, which is impressive.”
Muccio: Charles Hudson ghosted Sundae founder after diligence call
“Anastasia followed up over email twice, but got no response from Charles.”
Elizabeth Yin: Founders must have contingency plans if they cannot raise full target
“I don't think you necessarily present all, you know, several plans, but you should have like a plan in mind for if you cannot raise X, you should be able to do something with Y. I a hundred percent agree with that. If the company is down in the water because y…”