The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Luke Barkley Young: Fabric shower liners release carcinogenic PFAS in showers
“The material you're talking about it isn't, it's not cloth. It's a polyester. It's covered in what's called a DWR, durable water resistant, which is made of a PFA, which is a highly carcinogenic forever chemical. And when you stand next to it in the shower, th…”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 7:32 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines CAC dropped post-iOS update and remains profitable
“Post the iOS update, our CAC actually reduced, and it's continued to stay stable this year. So we're still first purchase profitable.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 8:50 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Young: Outlines' customer acquisition cost actually dropped post-iOS 14 update
“In fact, post the iOS update, our CAC actually reduced, and it's continued to stay stable this year. So we're still first purchase profitable.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 8:40 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Opinion
Jillian Manus: Outlines is overly complicated across manufacturing, recovery, and recycling
“I think that this is overly complicated. You are designing, you're manufacturing, you're recovering, you're replenishing, you're recycling. It's a lot. And I would love to see you focus on one thing, or even build almost a SaaS product that's logistics for rep…”
Jillian Manus Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 12:50 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howie Diamond: Outlines won't achieve mainstream adoption due to high prices
“I don't see the mainstream adoption for this product because the price is way too high and way too premium for me to To get involved in this because I just think it's going to be a very, very small select people who care about the environmental impacts to get …”
Howie Diamond Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 10:13 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Opinion
Sarah Cohn: B2B retail replenishment services are low-margin and uncompelling
“Taking the smallest, lowest value, lowest margin component of that full stack business, which is the recycling, and making a whole business out of that is like, that's not compelling at all.”
Sarah Cohn Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 24:17 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Opinion
Manus: Outlines is overly complicated trying to do manufacturing and recycling
“I think that this is overly complicated. So you are designing, you're manufacturing, you're recovering, you're replenishing, you're recycling. It's a lot. And I would love to see you focus on one thing, or even build almost a SaaS product that's logistics for …”
Jillian Manus Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 12:40 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Opinion
Diamond: Outlines won't reach mainstream adoption due to its premium pricing
“I don't see the mainstream adoption for this product because the price is way too high and way too premium for me to get involved in this because I just think it's going to be a very, very small select people who care about the environmental impacts to get ove…”
Howie Diamond Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 10:03 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Young: 75% of Outlines buyers opt for a shower curtain subscription
“75% of our users subscribe to recurring deliveries at the point of purchase.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 2:56 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Material value offsets shipping at 10,000 pounds volume
“However, once we get to a quantity of shipments of 10,000 pounds and above, we'll probably start to get paid enough for that material that will offset just shipping it to the recycler.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 4:46 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines has an 88% product return recycling rate
“So our trailing full participation in responsible replenishment, we call that, is 88%.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 6:18 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Disclosure
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines aims to be the Whole Foods for replenishables
“I think Outlines should be like the destination for replenishable. It's a bit like the way Whole Foods was the destination for Believable organic produce.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 12:39 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines has a 75% point-of-purchase subscription rate
“75% of our users subscribe to recurring deliveries at the point of purchase. That's five times an industry standard.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 3:06 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Disclosure
Beck Bamberger commits a $50,000 investment to Outlines
“Oh, I'm in for 50 K.”
Beck Bamberger Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 14:52 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Supported
Barkley Young: Outlines charges $55 for shower sets and $25 refills
“Our initial set is a part including shipping is 55 dollars. The part that you're replenishing for the shower curtain is 25 dollars.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 5:18 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Contradicted
Young: Outlines is the top-rated shower liner on Wirecutter and Strategist
“So we're the number one shower liner across, like, strategist or wire cutter.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 9:31 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Young: At 10,000 pounds, recycling payouts will offset our shipping costs
“However, once we get to a quantity of shipments of 10,000 pounds and above, we'll probably start to get paid enough for that material that will offset just shipping it to the recycler.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 4:37 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Disclosure
Bamberger: I'm in for a $50,000 investment in Outlines
“Oh, I'm in for 50 K. There we go.”
Beck Bamberger Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 14:44 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Disclosure
Young: Outlines aims to become the Whole Foods of circular replenishable goods
“What we're really excited about is beginning to introduce third party product because we do such a good job of shipping to and taking back and recycling. And we know that our customers love subscribing from us. So I think Outlines should be like the destinatio…”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 12:13 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Young: Outlines' Customer Acquisition Cost on Paid Search Is Under $17
“I think our CAC on paid search right now is under 17 dollars, which is great.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 9:10 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines paid search CAC is currently under $17
“I think our CAC on paid search right now is under 17 dollars, which is great.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 9:20 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines raised over $1M on a $6M valuation cap
“Yeah, in fact, we're almost just a little bit over, which is good.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 27:20 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Disclosure
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines is raising $1M to launch five new products
“We're now raising a million dollars to launch five new products This year to grow our systems and plans with our existing users, but to also acquire new users.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 3:22 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines has 3,500 subscribers and 5,000 units sold
“Right now we have three and a half thousand subscribers and we've sold 5000 units.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 6:07 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Disclosure
Beck Bamberger wired $50,000 to Outlines without negotiating original terms
“So I already wired the money today.”
Beck Bamberger Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 18:20 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines surpassed 10,000 customer households across America
“We actually just passed a pretty significant milestone, which is, like, 10,000 homes across America now choose our lines for the shower liners and are recycling with us”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 26:36 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Contradicted
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines is ranked #1 shower liner on Wirecutter
“So we're the number one shower liner across like strategist or wire cutter.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 9:41 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Barkley Young: Outlines pays about $1 per item for recycling
“So right now we're paying roughly a dollar per item to have it recycled.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 4:33 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Young: Outlines sold over 5,000 shower liners since launch
“Since we launched our first product in January last year, we sold over 5000 units of the shower liner.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 2:45 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Disclosure
Young: Outlines is raising on a $6 million valuation cap
“Yeah, six million cap.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 14:49 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Young: 88% of Outlines customers return their shower curtains for recycling
“So our trailing full participation in responsible replenishment, we call that, is 88%.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 6:09 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Disclosure
Young: Outlines is raising $1M to launch five new products
“We're now raising a million dollars to launch five new products this year To grow our systems and plans with our existing users, but to also acquire new users.”
Luke Barkley Young Nov 1, 2023 ▶ 3:13 "VCs Debate: Is This Recyclable Shower Curtain the Future of Circular Economy Home Products?"
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines pays roughly $1 per item to recycle
“So right now we're paying roughly a dollar per item to have it recycled.”
Luke Barkley Young Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 4:42 #123 Outlines: A Venture-Backed Shower Curtain?
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