The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,353 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 20 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Armstrong voted against USDC, which now makes Coinbase ~$1B in revenue
“USDC, I will tell you, I actually voted no on USDC to like, which was a terrible, now it's like almost a billion dollars of revenue or something for us.”
Coogan: DOGE Claims $175 Billion in Federal Savings Since Inauguration
“Doge said it had saved the government, one hundred and seventy-five billion from a combination of asset sales, contracts, lease, and grant cancellations, workforce reductions, and other moves made since January twentyth inauguration.”
Dixon: Monthly Stablecoin Volume Hit $2 Trillion, Surpassing Visa
“So like last month, it was something like two trillion in stable coin volume, which is more than trillion with a T, which is more than Visa.”
Tan: The federal government has 4.5M credit cards for 2M employees
“So there's 4.5 million cardholders in the federal government. There's only two point something million employees.”
Asparouhov: Defense reconciliation funding largely serves legacy primes over startups
“Like a significant amount of that reconciliation package has a bunch of line items that are currently only possibly be served by traditional defense contractors and like the primes.”
Partovi: Kalshi is the largest legal sports betting market in the US
“And now they're now the largest sports within two months or three months of launch. They're the single largest sports betting market in the United States, all legally.”
Kovacevich: FTC and DOJ divided Big Tech targets rather than subject matter
“What happened was about six years ago, the FTC and the Justice Department, they share responsibility for antitrust. They got together and they said, they basically struck a deal and they said, okay, FTC, you get Meta and Amazon and DOJ, you get Google and Appl…”
Biden's AI diffusion rule forced Middle East to pick US over China
“The diffusion rule that the Biden administration put out at the very end was really a play to force them to pick sides. And basically the deal was like, look, if you want access to the future, if you want access to compute, then you really got to play ball wit…”
Langtry: Texas and Utah are suing the NRC over SMR regulation
“Texas and Utah that are suing the NRC to try and get regulatory control over small modular reactors.”
Mehr: Machina Labs operates at almost software-like margins
“We are one of the very few manufacturing companies that are like doing almost suffer like margins.”
Brown: DeepSeek serves all of China on 2,000 GPUs
“Like Deep Seek is serving all of China on 2000 GPUs.”
Freeform built the world's fastest and highest-volume metal 3D printer
“We've built the fastest, highest volume metal printing platform on the planet.”
Lessin: Unicorns avoided mass extinction by cutting burn into 'zombicorn' status
“People, friends of mine were like, oh, we're gonna see this mass extinction of these unicorns. They're all gonna die because, you know, they're gonna run out of money. No one's gonna fund them. The liquidation preferences are huge. They can't go public. They a…”
Farid: Programming accounts for under 5% of Formic's robot deployment costs
“From the hundreds of robots that we've deployed today, less than five percent of my deployment cost is programming the robot to do the thing.”
Means: Tobacco giants controlled 50% of US food supply in early 1990s
“50% of the US food supply was controlled by Philip Morris and RJ Reynolds in the early 19 nineties.”
Means: US children's diets are 70% ultra-processed vs 15% in Japan and Italy
“Today in America, a child's diet is 70% ultra processed food. In Japan or Italy, it's 15%.”
Kellogg's uses natural juices in European Froot Loops but dyes in US
“Kellogg's makes fruit loops with carrot juice and watermelon juice and ships them across the border to Canada and ships them over to Europe. They make the same product with petroleum based dyes here in the U S.”
Means: 90% of US Farm Subsidies Go to Corn, Soy, and Wheat
“It's 90% to corn, soy, wheat.4% of subsidies go to fruits and vegetables.”
Means: Pharma makes up over 50% of news channel advertising
“The pharma industry particularly, Is the lifeblood of news and advertising over 50% for most news channels.”
Means: 35% of American teens take chronic disease medications
“35% of teens are on some kind of chronic disease drug.”
Hausman: Physical Intelligence models give robots zero-shot intuition in new environments
“And one thing with Pi-O-V that we are really excited about is that we are now at the stage where the robots kind of get the sense of what they should be doing in that environment. So, they are no longer in this space where, you know, you just, like, arrive in …”
Hausman: Physical Intelligence demonstrated previously impossible tasks like laundry folding
“The demonstrations that we, that we've shown so far here at physical intelligence are of tasks that were not possible before, like things like folding laundry. You can't really, there is no program that I've ever seen that could do that.”
Hausman: Robotics AI does not yet possess LLM-style compute scaling laws
“We are not there yet in terms of like having a full scaling law the same way as we've seen for LLM companies where you can just translate prog compute to progress to capability.”
Asparouhov: Congressional reconciliation bill considers $150B to $200B defense budget boost
“There's been talk of that reconciliation bill being a 150 to 200, you know, sort of billion, which obviously gets, you know, sort of the total last year bill, you know, pretty close to that, you know, sort of trillion dollar mark.”
Asparouhov: Congressional bills get negotiated at the Hill & Valley Forum
“Like, we've actually heard that, like, some of the, like, bills end up getting negotiated, like, during the cocktail hour and, like, reception. Of hill and valley, because it's just like one of the few times where it's like, oh, we like have the entire house a…”
Kilpatrick: AI models now outperform humans on most vision tasks
“If you look at like multimodal, like the fact that the models can like with better, better than just from a multimodal input perspective, better than humans are at like most vision tasks, like The number of products and like things that that unlocks is like tr…”
Kilpatrick: Gemini 2.5 Pro Relied on Pre-Training Innovations, Not Just RL
“But I think if you look at like a, an example of this in practice, like 2.5 pro is actually an example where it wasn't just like RL scaling that made that model better. Yes, RL was part of the story, but like there was also a bunch of pre-training innovation a…”
Columbia suspended Roy Lee for a year after his Amazon interview stunt
“Amazon reported me to Columbia. Amazon is mad. Columbia is mad. And this ends up being a spat that I sort of publicize on my Twitter. It becomes this big spectacle and I eventually get kicked out of Columbia or suspended for a year. And I'm blacklisted from mo…”
Cliffton: Zipline is the largest autonomous system on Earth
“Zipline would be crossing a hundred million commercial autonomous miles, would be the largest autonomous system on earth of any kind.”
Hammond: Nvidia continually circumvents export controls with sub-threshold chips like the H20
“Every time we introduce an expert control, NVIDIA's two weeks later has a new chip that just gets under the line of what's being controlled. And the latest one is the H-Twenty.”
Hammond: China added 446 GW of power last year versus US net zero additions
“China added 446 gigawatts of energy last year. It was a 20% year over year increase. They're going to do that again this year. We added zero net new energy. We had a lot of renewables, but it came directly out of coal and other sources.”
Hammond: China Has Decisively Leapfrogged the US in Battery Technology
“Yes, we have the data centers and the better models, but China, you know, has the batteries, right? They have like that. That's one area where they have leapfrogged us and whether it's electric vehicles or robotics or drones, like we need to have our own batte…”
Hammond: Commerce Department is delaying Nvidia H20 export controls over tariffs
“The commerce department has, you know, Howard Lutnick has said that he's going to export control the age 20, but they're so distracted by tariffs. They haven't prioritized it. And the time is kind of running out.”
Huber: 10x compute increases are not producing 10x better AI models
“Diminishing, they're clearly diminishing marginal returns, right? We're sort of spending 10 X on compute. We're not getting 10 X or better models, at least evidently not yet.”
Arnott: Anduril can build thousands of Copperhead systems yearly vs legacy 100-200
“We can also build them at thousands per year, whereas kind of right now, you may be lucky to get a 102 hundred torpedoes out of a supply chain as it exists today.”
Hudson: Affiliate networks enforce stand-down policies preventing extensions from stealing creator attribution
“There is stand down policies at all of the, at almost all of the networks where downloadable software tools, toolbars browser extensions are required by the affiliate network. Who's mediating all these like multi-party exchanges are required to stand down to t…”
Swyx: AI Autonomous Task Horizon Doubles Every 3 to 7 Months
“METER put out a study of the agentic work that can be done you know, by a wide range of benchmarks and dated it, ran it all the way back to 2019, and basically came out with the idea that the agent horizon for the 50% capability, like, 50 percentile capability…”
Knoop: ARC Saw No Progress Despite 50,000x Model Scaling
“Surprise that it basically hadn't, and not only hadn't been beaten, there'd basically been no progress in it which I thought was really fascinating given the fact that we've like scaled up these language model systems by almost like 50,000 times over the last,…”
Knoop: Pure LLMs Score 0% and o1 Scores 1% on ARC-AGI-2
“Pure LLM systems are scoring like zero percent now again on on arc B two single COT systems like R one and O one score like one percent.”
Handmer: Solar on 6% of Earth Could Provide US-Level Energy Globally
“In terms of energy we can give every man, woman, and child on Earth the amount of energy we enjoy here in the United States, which is about 20 barrels of oil per person per year with something like six percent of Earth's surface under solar, which is, It's a, …”
Doricko: 29 US States Have Proposed Legislation Banning Weather Modification
“The state of the union is 29 states this year have proposed legislation to carte blanche all weather modification and atmospheric engineering.”
Doricko: Decades of studies show no health impacts from cloud seeding silver iodide
“People have done 80 or 30 or 50 years, depending on the watershed, studies on the concentration of silver iodide that ends up in the water and the soil. And after decades of operation, you only see parts per trillion of this stuff. Like, you need super sophist…”
Doricko: Silver iodide is less toxic by lethal dose than table salt
“If you think about the, like, LB-fifty, like the lethal dose of silver iodide, it's less than salt. It's less than table salt. It's milligrams per kilogram with salt, and then it's 2800 for silver iodide. So this is like a resoundingly safe material to be usin…”
Doricko: No reliable data shows cloud seeding causes downwind drought
“The evidence of downwind drought is totally uncompelling. Nobody's provided reliable data there”
Valenzuela: Runway Gen-4 Solves Consistency Issue in AI Video
“It's it solves one of the most pressing things of AI video these days, which is consistency. So you can create really consistent worlds.”
Valenzuela: Runway's short film was made by one person in days
“If you look at The Lonely Little Flame, the short I was just mentioning before, that's production value before June four, we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars. That's a very expensive thing to make. It took us, like, two to three days to make l…”
Asparouhov: Many VC LPAs previously banned defense alongside porn and gambling
“A significant amount of the investors that now all talk about defense literally had it in their LPA of, you know, the three things that they weren't allowed to invest into was gambling, porn, and defense. And it was like put as one of those top three effective…”
Asparouhov: Northrop dropped a spacecraft, shifting ISS cargo missions to SpaceX
“This past week They dropped it. And so NASA was like, look like, yes, this has been tested, et cetera, but like, we don't know what happened in the drop. We need to basically send this thing back and run it through a full testing campaign and make sure that it…”