The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 162 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Partovi: Majority of Thiel Fellows joined after raising millions and dropping out
“The majority of the Teal Fellows followed that path. They became a Teal Fellow Long after raising money, long after dropping out of college.”
Misra: TikTok spent around $100M a month advertising on Snapchat
“They were running, like, a hundred million dollars a month of ads on Snapchat, right? Initially, right? When they were not, there was no presence.”
Malling: Public.com was the first trading platform to offer fractional shares
“We were like the first to do the whole first trading platform to do fractional shares”
Farid: US factories run under 2,000 hours annually versus 7,500 in China
“The typical utilization rate of a factory in America is less than 2000 hours a year. This, the comparable number in China is 7500 hours a year, right? Like there's 8700 possible production hours in a given year. The vast majority of American factories are sitt…”
Means: US Only Country Allowing Welfare Funds for Soda and Junk Food
“We're the only country in the world where a low-income nutrition assistance program goes to soda and Twinkies.”
Means: American teenage boys have lower testosterone than 68-year-olds
“A teenager boy in America has less testosterone than a sixty-eight-year-old man.”
Ginn: China Has Only 20 to 30 Amphibious Vessels for Taiwan
“Like the number of amphibian shipping vessels to actually take people from mainland to Taiwan. They have around 20, 20 or 30. They're actually capable of crossing that.”
Srinivas: Instagram data shows user engagement drops when ads are removed
“Instagram has shown some stats where the engagement time on their platform reduces if they remove the ads because that's the level of personalization of the ads.”
Cliffton: Zipline is the only company with nationwide BVLOS approval
“Zipline's the only company in U.S. History that's been awarded, like, full permission to fly beyond vigilantesite in all 50 states.”
Housel: Vanguard monthly inflows exceed Robinhood's total assets under custody
“Vanguard brings in more money every month than Robin hood has in total.”
Reed: Sequoia Capital Global Equities is largest TMT hedge fund
“Sequoia Capital Global Equities, which is, I think at this point, the largest TMT long short hedge fund in the world.”
NASA Denied Astronauts Were Stranded Within 24 Hours of Asparouhov's Tweet
“The word stranded had not yet been used a single time in any like NASA comms and anybody's like comms about the entire mission within 24 hours of my tweet going viral. NASA put out a press release explicitly saying the astronauts are not stranded.”
Asparouhov: Orbital fuel requirement per person matches transatlantic flight
“If you think about it on like a unit of fuel of like how much fuel you need to get up there the amount of fuel that it would take for somebody to transport us from like london to new york on a seven 47 That's basically the same amount of fuel, like hydrocarbon…”
Tan: 100% of YC companies currently have technical co-founders
“What's happening is that like, you know, a hundred percent of YC companies these days have technical co-founders”
Hays: China announced approximately $500B in new state-funded tech investment
“They just announced the equivalent of like five hundred billion dollars of new Like state funded Investment.”
Coogan: Tesla will finally deliver the new Roadster in 2025
“I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now like everything's clear. Stocks at all time highs. Like he's got all the approvals and stuff. Like he needs a new halo car.”
Europe has not produced a hundred-billion-dollar company in fifty years
“It really captures, like, why there's no hundred billion dollar company in Europe that was started in the last, like, 50 years or something like that.”
Sequoia-Backed Companies Represent 33% of Nasdaq Market Value
“Sequoia has helped capitalize companies that now represent 3.3 trillion of market value. 33% of the Nasdaq.”
Lulu Cheng Meservey's Anti-Woke Substack Recruiting Post Reached 100 Million Views
“Well, it's because they took a very contrarian position on free speech. And Lulu had that insanely viral recruiting post. Do you remember this? She was like when Elon bought Twitter, She said, if you have a problem with Elon bringing free speech to Twitter, do…”
Hays: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs can increase body fat percentage through muscle loss
“While GLP ones can make you lose weight, they can actually make you fatter as a percentage of your bot, you know, as a percentage of fat to other aspects of the body. So that could mean that what that, that means at a high level is you can actually lose muscle…”
Coogan: Only 50,000 Americans are currently active weekly semaglutide users for obesity
“How many people do you think are taking it? Like weekly active users... It's 50,000. Isn't that crazy?”
Hays: Y Combinator Found Wealthy Founders Have Higher Success Rates
“I think YC did an analysis on their portfolio
and they found that founders that came from money had a higher likelihood of success”
Truth Social Reached a $10B Valuation Faster Than Recent Tech Startups
“If you actually look at the numbers, I couldn't name another company that got to a ten billion dollar valuation in tech in less than two years in this recent cycle.”
Coogan: Meta Built Two Data Centers Specifically to Power Reels Algorithm
“They built two extra data centers to be able to do the Reels algorithm, because if they didn't have that compute capacity, they could not have launched a competitor to TikTok on any normal time frame, because it was actually a compute intensive project, not ju…”
Hays: GTA 6 development costs $2 billion over 12 years
“Apparently GTA six is two billion dollars and it's taking 12 years.”
Baker: Meta Privately Tells Investors It Will Not Monetize GPUs Externally
“Right now Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, monetize GPUs externally.”
Coogan: Benchmark Still Holds Over 20% Ownership in Cerebras
“Benchmark is gonna be absolutely cleaning up. They still own over 20% of Cerebrus, apparently.”
Xi Jinping seeks IMF bailout for distressed global Chinese loans
“In other debt-related news, Xi Jinping wants to use the International Monetary Fund to rescue the array of distressed Chinese loans around the world.”
Dunn: Chicago has never built a $100B enterprise value tech company
“We've never had a hundred billion dollar enterprise value tech company built here in Chicago.”
Hays: Meta Stock Will Pop Higher When Layoffs Are Announced
“I would expect this to pop even harder once these layoffs are actually announced.”
Drew Houston Pioneered Late-Stage Institutional Fundraising for Tech Startups
“I have to give credit to Drew at Dropbox. He was like the first guy in that game.”
Epstein: Alternate routes to Strait of Hormuz only handle 1-2M barrels daily
“There are certain pipelines you can pipe more oil through, there are alternate routes, but we're talking about the millions a day, maybe. Most of our other options are sort of in the one to two million barrels a day.”
Coogan: DoorDash CEO filed SEC letter to rebut Citrini research report
“I saw that the DoorDash CEO put out a like an SEC letter to the investors. Did you see that? Like a full PDF filed with the SEC, like this is sort of guidance, but telling the investor base, like, here's what's not going to change, like basically disregard the…”
Hays: DeepSeek Is Hiring a 'PR Harmony Manager' Amid Distillation Scrutiny
“Deep seek is responding to distill gates and they are looking For a public relations harmony manager.”
Musk: xAI is pivoting Grok away from academic benchmarks toward engineering
“Elon Musk announced that XAI is moving away from traditional academic benchmarks like humanity's last exam to focus Grok on maximal utility for real world engineering and Software development.”
Huberman: Retatrutide caused one-third body weight loss in trials
“The interesting thing here is that in a phase three clinical trial in humans, it caused up to one third loss of body weight. So a loss of one third of body weight in about six months time. And it seems like there's some degree of muscle sparing.”
Hays: Only three original xAI co-founders remain at the company
“This isn't looking good, and it's the original XAI co-founders. There was one, two, three, four, five, Five, six, seven, eight. There's three remaining. Elon plus Manuel and Toby.”
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Bishop: DeepSeek will launch its next model within eight or nine days
“And so now everyone's waiting for DeepSeek's next model, which is supposed to launch on or around Lunar New Year, which is next Wednesday the 17th. So we should have some sort of a DeepSeek model in the next eight or nine days.”
Coogan: Tens of thousands of developers use Steve Yegge's Gas Town
“There there's tens of thousands of people using this.”
Schlicht: Moltbook does not prompt or control agent posts
“And then notebook's not telling them what to talk about. So it's not suggesting what they should do. It's not like controlling that at all. That's entirely up to that AI agent on its own.”
Hays: 20% of all ChatGPT queries are health-related
“20% of all the queries are. Okay, yeah. Are health related.”
Coogan: ByteDance is on track for $50B in profit in 2025
“TikTok owner ByteDance is on track for fifty billion in profit in 2025.”
Coogan: Rheinmetall is now roughly the size of Lockheed and General Dynamics
“Ryan Mittal's been on an absolute tear. They're now basically the same size as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.”
OpenAI's unique API rate-limiting curves expose companies using it under the hood
“The shape of that curve and the specific timings are unique to open AI.”
Coogan: Gemini 3 Pro is the first LLM to beat GeoGuessr pros
“Gemini Three Pro is the first LLM to beat professional human players at GeoGuessr.”