The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
The AI Venture Capital Bubble Will Not Burst in 2026
“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”
Rob Walling Dec 30, 2025 ▶ 21:04 Episode 813 | SaaS Predictions for 2026 (+ Reflections on 2025)
Prediction Held up
Walling: Google organic SEO traffic will drop 15% to 25% in 2025
“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”
Rob Walling Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 3:05 Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025
Prediction Held up
Volset: COVID-19 lockdowns will not last 18 months to two years
“Realistically, it's not like we're going to be in lockdown for 18 months to two years. Like, that doesn't, that just won't happen. Like, there are too many things that are likely to work out in one way, shape, or form.”
Einar Vollset Mar 31, 2020 ▶ 33:27 Episode 490 | How Founders Should Be Thinking About the Current Crisis
Prediction Held up
Walling: Congress will repeal the Section 174 R&D tax changes
“What I'm hearing a lot of people say is that their accounts are telling them to basically file an extension and wait and see if this gets rolled back. Repealed, which I think it will.”
Rob Walling Mar 14, 2023 ▶ 30:39 Episode 652 | Mixing No-code with Code, Developer Superpowers, $5...
Prediction Held up
Vollset: Stock market will not be worse off by June 2023
“I don't think the stock market will be worse off.”
Einar Vollset Dec 20, 2022 ▶ 25:15 Episode 640 | Hot Take Tuesday: Recession and Bootstrappers, Chat...
Prediction Held up
Vollset: Clubhouse will survive at least 18 months due to VC funding
“18 months. That's a lifetime. I still think they're around. They raised so much money. I mean, I think they raised, didn't they raise like a hundred million or something insane? So I still think they're, they'll be around. Yeah, I do.”
Einar Vollset Mar 16, 2021 ▶ 11:46 Episode 540 | Bootstrapper News. Twitter Spaces, Indie.vc Closing, Shopify, and More
Prediction Held up
Taber: Regulators will attempt to break up Big Tech, likely targeting Facebook
“There's going to be a over attempt by a government and I'm going to, you know, kind of lump a couple of them together, like the United States, either the United States federal government, the European union, or even maybe even, I doubt a state government would…”
Mike Taber Dec 22, 2020 ▶ 11:25 Episode 528 | 2021 Predictions from Rob and Mike
Prediction Held up
Taber: Governments will pass new legislation cracking down on gig economy in 2021
“Governments are going to actively crack down on the gig economy and essentially people who are doing side jobs or they're stringing together multiple side jobs in order to either make a living or make extra money on the side, those type of people I think the g…”
Mike Taber Dec 22, 2020 ▶ 11:59 Episode 528 | 2021 Predictions from Rob and Mike
Prediction Held up
Hewitt: COVID-19 economic recovery could take months, not years like 2008
“That external event will go away and things will come back much more quickly, I think. Out of this, then they did the financial crisis, you know, that was years and this could be months, you know, sometime around the end of the year, maybe.”
Craig Hewitt Apr 21, 2020 ▶ 36:42 Episode 493 | Startup Roundtable
Prediction Held up
Walling: Ads in AI chat interfaces will become commonplace
“My fifth prediction is that ads in AI chat interfaces like ChatGPT or Claude or, you know, whatever other chat interface you use will become commonplace because this is the next frontier.”
Rob Walling Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 6:30 Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025
Prediction Held up
Jeff Roberts predicts Stripe will eventually launch a Merchant of Record solution
“And I think it's even telling that Stripe has not prioritized their own merchant of record solution, at least at this point. I suspect they will at some point.”
Jeff Roberts Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 12:13 Episode 658 | As a SaaS Founder, When Should You Care About Sales...
Prediction Held up
Walling predicts Apple will reject a fully remote work model
“You know, I don't think Apple's going remote with the big saucer, flying saucer campus there, and what are they going to do when they come back?”
Rob Walling Jun 8, 2021 ▶ 17:21 553: Stack Overflow and Moz Acquired, Quitting Instead of Giving Up Remote Work, and More
Prediction Held up
Instagram's 1.9% organic engagement rate will significantly decline by 2026
“Instagram is the highest of the organic engagement channels today, organic social networks, and I think it's hovering on average around 1.9%. I wouldn't expect that to last five years.”
Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 51:45 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin
Prediction Held up
Walling Predicts Freelance and Gig Workers Will Hit Record Highs
“Number one, I think there are going to be more freelance and more gig workers than there ever have been, and I think part of that is due to the economy.”
Rob Walling Feb 16, 2021 ▶ 13:15 Episode 536 | A Few Things I Learned in 2020 (A Rob Solo Adventure)
Prediction Held up
Vollset: SPACs Will Become an Increasingly Popular Path to Going Public
“My view is that that's sort of a symptom of, like, how complicated and how long it's taking for all these companies to go public. And so I think we'll start to see more and more of that trend.”
Einar Vollset Nov 3, 2020 ▶ 31:48 Episode 521 | A Roundtable Discussion about a Potential Recession, Working from Home,
Prediction Held up
Walling: The US and developed world will enter a recession
“I think to start, Aynar, I don't see, personally, I don't see any reality where we don't slip into a recession, at least in the U.S. And probably most of the developed world.”
Rob Walling Mar 31, 2020 ▶ 3:02 Episode 490 | How Founders Should Be Thinking About the Current Crisis
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