why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
The AI Venture Capital Bubble Will Not Burst in 2026
“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”
Prediction Held up
Walling: Google organic SEO traffic will drop 15% to 25% in 2025
“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”
Prediction Held up
Volset: COVID-19 lockdowns will not last 18 months to two years
“Realistically, it's not like we're going to be in lockdown for 18 months to two years. Like, that doesn't, that just won't happen. Like, there are too many things that are likely to work out in one way, shape, or form.”
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Walling: Congress will repeal the Section 174 R&D tax changes
“What I'm hearing a lot of people say is that their accounts are telling them to basically file an extension and wait and see if this gets rolled back. Repealed, which I think it will.”
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Vollset: Stock market will not be worse off by June 2023
“I don't think the stock market will be worse off.”
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Vollset: Clubhouse will survive at least 18 months due to VC funding
“18 months. That's a lifetime. I still think they're around. They raised so much money. I mean, I think they raised, didn't they raise like a hundred million or something insane? So I still think they're, they'll be around. Yeah, I do.”
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Taber: Regulators will attempt to break up Big Tech, likely targeting Facebook
“There's going to be a over attempt by a government and I'm going to, you know, kind of lump a couple of them together, like the United States, either the United States federal government, the European union, or even maybe even, I doubt a state government would…”
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Taber: Governments will pass new legislation cracking down on gig economy in 2021
“Governments are going to actively crack down on the gig economy and essentially people who are doing side jobs or they're stringing together multiple side jobs in order to either make a living or make extra money on the side, those type of people I think the g…”
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Hewitt: COVID-19 economic recovery could take months, not years like 2008
“That external event will go away and things will come back much more quickly, I think. Out of this, then they did the financial crisis, you know, that was years and this could be months, you know, sometime around the end of the year, maybe.”
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Walling: Ads in AI chat interfaces will become commonplace
“My fifth prediction is that ads in AI chat interfaces like ChatGPT or Claude or, you know, whatever other chat interface you use will become commonplace because this is the next frontier.”
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Jeff Roberts predicts Stripe will eventually launch a Merchant of Record solution
“And I think it's even telling that Stripe has not prioritized their own merchant of record solution, at least at this point. I suspect they will at some point.”
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Walling predicts Apple will reject a fully remote work model
“You know, I don't think Apple's going remote with the big saucer, flying saucer campus there, and what are they going to do when they come back?”
Prediction Held up
Instagram's 1.9% organic engagement rate will significantly decline by 2026
“Instagram is the highest of the organic engagement channels today, organic social networks, and I think it's hovering on average around 1.9%. I wouldn't expect that to last five years.”
Prediction Held up
Walling Predicts Freelance and Gig Workers Will Hit Record Highs
“Number one, I think there are going to be more freelance and more gig workers than there ever have been, and I think part of that is due to the economy.”
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Vollset: SPACs Will Become an Increasingly Popular Path to Going Public
“My view is that that's sort of a symptom of, like, how complicated and how long it's taking for all these companies to go public. And so I think we'll start to see more and more of that trend.”
Prediction Held up
Walling: The US and developed world will enter a recession
“I think to start, Aynar, I don't see, personally, I don't see any reality where we don't slip into a recession, at least in the U.S. And probably most of the developed world.”