The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,032 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bloom: Terra Luna faces a real risk of a downward market spiral
“There's this swap mechanism where, If suddenly that yield starts to drop or if they're not able to maintain it, if people start selling rather than buying Luna, and if you have a bunch of people swapping It does create this market spiral, right? Like there is …”
Isenberg: Top Marketing Engineers Will Make Millions of Dollars Annually
“Why in the original I said I think that there's going to be people make A million dollars doing this. And I actually think that's conservative. I think there will be versions of that, of the best marketing engineers making millions of dollars a year is because…”
Carson: AI agents will write, review, and ship 100% of code
“You will be using a software factory. Like, and what I mean is, the agents are going to be writing a hundred percent of your code, reviewing a hundred percent of your code, shipping a hundred percent of your code. Like, that's where we're going.”
Wilkinson: Basic businesses will be fully run by AI in 3-6 months
“And I think that we're probably three to six months out from being able to just can businesses off to AI to run at least basic businesses like this.”
Gaskill: People will stop using SaaS apps directly in favor of AI operating systems
“I think that everyone's gonna have, like, an AI operating system they work in, and everyone will just have personal agents and agents to manage each department of their company, and people won't actually use these apps anymore.”
Isenberg: AI Apps Owning Workflows and Network Effects Will Be Highly Valuable
“I think that you're discounting the opportunity that there is to actually create these, as you call it, flash in the pan apps to actually get data, to actually own the workflow, to actually create network effects. And I think that that those companies Provided…”
Isenberg: Top AI wrappers will survive OpenAI updates within 18 months
“There's, of course, going to be a bunch of startups that get hit by OpenAI and the foundational models in 12 to 18 months, but I think that, you know, the great AI wrappers are going to build valuable companies.”
Isenberg: Current LLMs will beat human beings on 95% of tasks
“Maybe this is obvious, but artificial intelligence is smarter than human beings. We're at a stage where human beings versus the current LLNs are gonna lose on 95% of tasks.”
Huber: AI will enrich business owners, not AI companies
“AI will definitely over time make the business owners more money, not necessarily the AI companies.”
Wilkinson: ChatGPT will eliminate software middlemen by building tools on demand
“For all tools basically all middlemen businesses are gone. And I believe fundamentally that we are all going to go to the search bar and the new search bar is ChatGPT and you're going to query it and ChatGPT will just build whatever you need or it'll hook into…”
Cole: Writers who do not learn AI orchestration will lose jobs
“Either you get on board with that and you become an orchestrator and editor in chief, or you don't have a job anymore.”
Postma predicts a one-person autonomous AI marketing agency could reach $1B revenue
“You could go into this and just basically build a marketing agency that scales to probably a billion dollar in revenue without having a single human sitting there. Just probably just one guy, which is managing all the terminal commands and checking if everythi…”
Greathouse Fall: AI will not replace advertising copywriters due to editing needs
“This thing is not going to, you know, replace your advertising copywriter. It's not going to place your content writer. It's not going to place. Any of these things that people are so worried about because of the need for human kind of nudging and course corre…”
Spartz: Meaningful Chance Advanced AI Escapes Control and Kills Everyone
“There's a Meaningful chance that we are going to make AI so powerful that we will lose control of it. And if we lose control of it, there's all kinds of bad things that can happen, including us all dying.”
Spartz: In five years, 99.9999% of content will be AI-generated
“Five years from now, 99.9999% of all content will be created by AIs.”
Postma: Social Media Will Die in Five Years Due to AI
“I'm pretty sure. Like I think social media, how we know it is going to be dead in five years because everything is going to be fake. So either people are going to love it or no one's going to use it because it's going to be a black forest effect.”
Postma: On-the-Fly Personalized AI Content Will Replace Human Creators
“Well, but don't you think that in five years, hypothetically, Like, why do you need content creators if TikTok, TikTok already knows so well what you like, what is your interest? Like, why would you need content creators if the AI models are so fast and GPUs a…”
Postma: Blog Content Marketing Is Dead; Interactive Tools Now Win SEO
“I think if you're making blog posts now to rank to the number top of Google, like content marketing, you're done. You're fucked. But if you make tools and products and something like this, and that's how you rank on Google, I think you have future success.”
Pal: The entire financial system and securities industry will pivot to blockchain
“The entire financial system is going to pile capital into this space over time. Because of the supermassive black hole that it is when you've got all these network effects going on. And the fact that financial industry itself is going to pivot to blockchain te…”
Calacanis: Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by superior technology
“Bitcoin is a great technology. It's been proven pretty robustly over a decade, but it will be replaced by a better technology. All technologies replaced eventually by a better technology”
Bloom: Over 10 Years, I Back Do Kwon and Terra Luna
“I actually don't know where I would land on the bet for one year from now, but 10 years from now, I like I like the Duquan side of it.”
Friedberg: Terrestrial nucleosynthesis could become an industrial process within 150 years
“When you combine the unleashed energy potential of plasma fusion systems with the theoretical laboratory scale potential of nuclear synthesis that we see in labs today, And you fast forward a 150 years. I think it's theoretically feasible on a first principles…”
Demirors: Bitcoin's proof of work acts as a global money battery
“Proof of work in and of itself is actually, I think, going to be one of the things that brings humanity into a new age of energy production, right? Right because Bitcoin is effectively a money battery. It enables you to balance, like, power on the grid”
Miller: Frontier AI models can now handle vague, open-ended autonomous prompts
“And seeing how Fable five and GPT 5.6 and that level model is reacting to that vague flavor of prompt. Like you could, you couldn't do this a year ago. Now you absolutely can.”
Schneider: AI agent systems reduce 100-ad Facebook setups to 90 minutes
“If I wanted to go and create a hundred ads, right. And get that into Facebook ads, like that is probably like two weeks of work, right? Historically. And now you as a founder, like literally in the next hour and a half, you can have this whole system that I ju…”
Carson: AI engineering token costs will hit $5,000 monthly per employee
“I think all of us are in a place where we, we're getting to the spot where it's realizing, okay, for real engineering work per employee, you're looking at probably five grand a month. Like, that's probably where we're gonna shake out here.”
Dan Shipper: Users can feed video into Codex to recreate apps
“But honestly, you can literally just feed this video into codex and just be like, make something like this and it will do that.”
Finn: Hardware bottlenecks and soaring memory costs will persist long-term
“My, kind of thesis, which I think is playing out in front of us right now is we're going to have hardware bottlenecks for a very long time now because the AI build out's happening. And so memory sky, I just bought a memory card for my Nintendo switch to cost m…”
Wilkinson: Built and Runs a SaaS Business Entirely Autonomously via OpenClaw
“And so as a test, before I started doing this in our operating businesses, I basically built a business a SaaS business, and then I've been running it entirely autonomously using OpenClaw.”
Wilkinson: Customer support will not be a human job very soon
“Like support to me is not a job very, very soon.”
Wilkinson: Anthropic and OpenAI will soon launch AI CEO products
“My, I mean, my kind of belief is like pretty soon Anthropic and OpenAI are gonna launch like basically like CEOs. So you just be like, I'm just gonna hire a CEO for my company. Give me your data. I'll figure it out. I'll run it. I'll run the whole business.”
Wilkinson: Software Will Face Extreme Pricing Pressure Like Restaurants
“I think pricing pressure is just gonna go crazy because it's like the restaurant industry. Like, you know, restaurants are not a bad business. They're bad because there's too much competition.”
Liu: AI models will never have infinite context windows due to physics
“I just don't think we're ever going to get to a point to where like a, an AI model can like have infinite context window. Right. And I think there's like a physics to that, right? Like you could just literally only have so much attention on like so much, you k…”
Brown: AI will control browsers as well as humans within three months
“Cause this is not a year from now. This is like three months away. AI will be able to control any browser like as good of a human.”
Isenberg: The Asymmetric AI Startup Window Will Narrow Within 24 Months
“I think that there's 12 months where competition starts catching up. Some of the best niches get claimed. Some of the tools get crowded. I think there's probably 24 months where the window narrows. The builders who get started now Are going to start owning moa…”
Isenberg: Marketers will outearn developers in tech over the next decade
“I believe that the wealthiest people will be marketers over the next 10 years, but every YouTube tutorial is telling you how to vibe code.”
Isenberg: Humans using mice and keyboards will soon become the minority
“We bought mouses and keyboards, and we had human beings actually going and clicking and doing things, right? That's, you know, going to be the minority, as weird as it is to say that.”
Henry: TikTok algorithm suppresses content posted directly through APIs
“TikTok knows if it's posted through an API, and it just assumes, like you would, that it's posted by a bot, and it's just botted content, especially in the age of AI, and it gives it very little chance to do well.”
Isenberg predicts autonomous AI marketing agents will cause widespread real job losses
“So I think and then the unfortunate thing is I think a lot of these jobs to be done, and this is where I disagree with a lot of people, is I think that there are, is going to be a lot of job loss. Real job loss.”
Kevin Rose: Vector Clustering Detects Undisclosed and Illegal Paid News Sponsorships
“I can detect when something is a paid sponsorship, even when sometimes people aren't calling it out as such, which is like really scary and illegal, because I will see, I can detect the similarity and distance difference between the vectors of the published co…”
Kevin Rose: Building Custom Personal Apps Will Become Norm Within Six Months
“If there's a workout app that you don't like because the buttons placement doesn't do it for you or doesn't track one key core metric, like you just build your own. Right. And like, that's going to be the norm in, you know, if it isn't already, it's gonna be t…”
Kevin Rose: VC Will Evolve Dramatically as Founders Bootstrap $10M Businesses
“I think VC is going to evolve dramatically over the next couple of years. Cause I believe that people don't need to raise capital and oftentimes most ideas, especially like just great lifestyle businesses that get to, you know, two, four or five, ten million i…”
Finn: Local multi-agent pipelines will automate video production in 45 seconds
“Now five different models locally on my computer are going to basically process this video and in 45 seconds The entire production process is over, and it's going to be uploaded on YouTube, right? That's where this is going.”
Hoffman: The next six months are the biggest AI search opportunity
“And probably the next six months are gonna be the biggest window of opportunity to take advantage of this marketing channel.”
Isenberg: Google AI will beat Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's ChatGPT
“And I think that it's really going to be, you know, it's Google AI versus Cloud versus ChatGBT, and I wouldn't be surprised if Google AI wins.”
Roberto Nixon: No Wealth Creation Event Will Ever Match AI, Except Perhaps Robotics
“There will never be another wealth creation event like AI. I think maybe personal humanoid robotics, but what an amazing, amazing time to be alive.”
Sora will shrink six-week agency video productions to under one week
“This is very disruptive to us because it essentially makes our six to eight week timeline down to what, like a week or less once you're able to kind of tweak and the quality gets better, which it will over the next three to six months.”