The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,121 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ohanian: Reddit is a proof of concept for Web3
“In many ways, I think Reddit will be looked at as a kind of proof of concept for a lot of the stuff that Web Three is just gonna run away with in the next few years.”
Ohanian: DAO participation will be commonplace within five years
“I think everyone in five years will participate in a DAO. They won't know it necessarily. I don't think that branding is, is whack. But they won't care. Right. User experience triumphs over everything. So yeah, I think it will be pretty commonplace. Not, maybe…”
Ohanian: People will value online pseudonyms over real names within five years
“In five years, agree with the statement that a famous VC asked me like 10 years ago, what's something that you believe that the rest of the world were? And I told him that people will care more or do care more and will care more about their online identity tha…”
Isenberg: CEOs not spending 20-30% of their time in Discord will fail
“Like if you're a CEO and you're not spending 20 to 30% of your time in a discord server. You're not gonna make it.”
Sam Parr bets money that fractional ownership startup Pacaso will succeed
“I'll bet you money that this company's wildly successful.”
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Howard Lindzon describes modern retail fintech as the unbundling of Vanguard
“So basically all that's happened in the last 12 years and beyond is the unbundling of Vanguard. Right? I want to own the S&P, 400, less these six destructive, I'll own the S&P, two 94.”
Howard Lindzon: Robinhood wouldn't exist if Vanguard hadn't hoarded its technology
“There should be no Robin Hood. There should be no any of this stuff. It should all still be CNBC and Vanguard and Goldman Sachs. They just didn't give their technology. They hoarded the technology.”
Howard Lindzon calls passive investing a myth because index funds rebalance
“There's no such thing as passive investing. Vanguard is a very active portfolio. Every month or quarter, they kick out poorly performing companies, so it's a quant fund. So people are really buying an active portfolio. It's just packaged as passive.”
Ross Mike: GPT-6 Astra computer-use automation is surprisingly effective
“Like, I, like, I'm so bullish on computer use. Like, I really, like, a lot of, and a lot of people might think it's, like, insane, or it doesn't work, or it breaks. Like, you'll be surprised how good, like, Astra is.”
Ross Mike: Using GPT-6 Astra to build landing pages wastes its intelligence
“What makes Astra amazing is for these, like, insane hardware projects, this next level software. So again, if you're using Astra to build a landing page, It's a sad use of intelligence”
Ross Mike says he would cancel Claude subscription for Astra
“Anthropic is sweating for sure because for the first time I would like, if I, if someone asked me pick a subscription, I would cancel and drop my Anthropics subscription. I would cancel Claude. Astra's that good.”
Ross Mike used $24,000 in model costs on two $200 subscriptions
“Like I asked my Astra agent to calculate how much of how much I've been using, like the subscription price, but also like in terms of API price, how much like I've been using in terms of model costs. And in the last week I've spent over 24,000 dollars. Mind yo…”
Isenberg: Microsoft Phi Models Fail in Many Practical Use Cases
“Microsoft also has their open model family. It's called FI. I think it's interesting if you care about smaller, faster, lower latency models. But for a lot of use cases I haven't seen it work very well.”
Isenberg: Teams Adopting MCP Skills Will Require Security Gatekeepers
“If Teams are going to install AI skills and MCP servers. Someone's going to need to help them decide what's safe. You know, that could be a trusted marketplace, a security scanner, an install gate for companies, or a feature inside every agent platform.”
Isenberg: Marketing engineer will be tech's most valuable role within 24 months
“I think one of the most valuable people in tech over the next 18 to 24 months is going to be something called a marketing engineer.”
Isenberg: In-app AI agents are a transitionary software paradigm
“I guess the in-app agent was sort of like a transitionary piece of software that needed to exist for a certain amount of time, but we're like, kind of growing out of it.”
Howell: Hardcode Proven Workflows With Scripts to Eliminate LLM Black Box Risk
“Once you've got a workflow that's working for you want to get rid of all the ambiguity. So I could have GrokBot write the blurbs every week and it does a really good job. But if the model changes or I don't know, just depending on how the bot's feeling, it mig…”
Howell: 5 Targeted Agent Pitches Outperform Mass-Emailing 200 Leads
“What you should do is set up an automation that goes on Monday that goes, okay, your job is to Add five prospects to our list. And then on Monday, okay, pick the top three prospects and create an ad package custom to them and draft an outbound email and then s…”
Howell: Build Physical Brands as Digital Creation Costs Approach Zero
“The cost of creating digital things is going to zero. There's no friction there. Actually making something physical a brand that you can just like build over time. I think that, I think that's a smart thing to do.”
Isenberg: AI engines like ChatGPT and Google need curated directories
“In an AI world, we actually need directories more than ever because there's just too much information. So when it's curated it's helpful. Also the whole like SEO game is changing right now. Like what's being, you know, like People are going to chat GPT, and th…”
Isenberg: Systems built around Claude Code create a competitive business moat
“If you have a really good system around this, it's creating a moat because you're going to get really good outputs from your cloud code.”
Ali K. Miller: Operating AI agents requires escalation oversight rather than micromanagement
“I feel like managing agents feels like I am their direct manager, and I'm like, Susie, go over there, and Betty, go over there, and Jeremy, go over here, and I feel like I am three rungs above at like an SVP overseeing level where I feel like I am setting up t…”
Miller: Framing AI operations as 'managing agents' is an outdated 2026 concept
“Anyone that is still talking about, you should manage agents, feels like early twenty-twenty-six talk.”
Miller: Building the factory before the product is a huge AI arbitrage
“And the third that very few people are talking about, but is probably one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities because of how good the models are now. Is to, instead of building out the thing, build the factory for the thing.”
Miller: Mediocre software is dead in several years
“I think mediocre software is dead in several years, and the reason that I think it's actually a longer timeline than most people are predicting is because of what I shared about, like, how often people are actually using this stuff.”
Miller: Replit and Lovable cannot yet build complex enterprise software
“Which I would even argue and say Replit lovable are not at that level yet, right, for that complexity of software.”
Isenberg: Video-first creators will win consumer software as code commoditizes
“And now the people that are going to win are going to be the more creative, maybe the video first people, the people that can like understand how to create Instagram reels that a posture app can go viral and the code is actually going to matter a lot less.”
Miller: Enterprise CMOs are panicking over how AI agents discover brands
“Like, I can tell you that CMOs, all of them are asking about, like, how do I get discovered by agents? How, what does the agent first shopping experience look like? What does brand consideration in the AI age look like? You know, all of that is being considere…”
Miller: Organizations should deploy proactive multiplayer AI agents with roaming freedom
“The leaning into the weirdness of what it looks like to have not just an AI workforce, but to have a multiplayer AI workforce that other humans can chime in on and have it be proactive, right? That is absolutely the second thing. And giving it that flexibility…”
Greg Isenberg: Human Web Monetizes Attention While Agent Web Monetizes Resources
“The human web monetized attention and the agent web monetizes useful resources.”
Greg Isenberg: Structured Agent Data Stack Will Spawn Thousands of New Startups
“And that stack is what's going to create this whole generation of, you know, thousands of companies.”
Schneider: Dedicated agent frameworks are often bloat for finite tasks
“A lot of the times you don't need it. It's just bloat. You can just have a very simple, like a very simple solution for these finite problems, right? It doesn't have to be this over complicated or over engineered thing.”
Isenberg: Social media managers will evolve into AI agent managers
“Agreed on the social media manager is like that role is dead or it's evolved. It's going to evolve. Like it's going to evolve into the social media agent manager.”
Isenberg: AI graph engineering builds compounding organizational memory over time
“The real compounding value of graph engineering isn't just that one task gets better. It's that your work starts producing memory. What do I mean by that? I mean that every customer research graph creates better customer notes. Every content graph creates bett…”
Schneider: Building AI tools for WordPress is a blue-ocean market
“And it's like, it's such an easy space to compete in. It's kind of blue ocean for this.”
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Eliminates the Need for Interest-Based Ad Targeting
“So on the Facebook ad side, so for targeting on Facebook anymore after Andromeda, you don't do interest-based targeting. Historically, how I would probably do this is I would actually go and I would target people who have a WordPress interest on Facebook ads. …”
Schneider: Marketers Manipulating Reddit for LLMs Are Creating a Dead Internet
“Reddit is being eroded right now by people manipulating it for like LLMs to rank on them.
but this is a way like you buy people like me that are basically creating the dead internet.
Let's be real.
It's already happening.”
Schneider: Marketers Must Become 'Agent Jockeys' to Build Autonomous Ad Systems
“This is what this turns into is like your job now becomes like, I'm an agent jockey. You're taking your domain knowledge that you have, and you're basically like building this into code and like, I'm not technical. Right. Like I can set this up now. Like the m…”
Carson: Knowledge workers across all roles are becoming AI agent managers
“Essentially you are a manager of agents now.
So no matter what you used to do, whether it was a people manager, an IC, you are going to become a manager of agents now, and you need to be the best in the world.”
Carson: Managing AI agents makes developers more technical, not less
“The more you become a better agent manager actually the more technical you become.”
Carson averages 22 to 25 pull requests daily using AI agents
“And you can see what, you know, the average here is, is sort of this 22 to 25 PRs a day, right? And sometimes, you know, 40 a day.”
Carson ships three PRs daily from an autonomous AI grading loop
“Every day I have an automation that looks at these chats and then grades them on a rubric. And so you, and again, just talk to your agent about this. You pick the most important part of your app that you want to self-improve and say, here's how you agent judge…”
Carson spent $20,000 on AI tokens in a single month
“So last month I spent probably 20 grand in, in tokens. Which is just too much. Like, it's not viable.”
Gannon: Inflate implementation fees to absorb initial diagnostic costs
“What I really like to do is mark up the upsell an extra thousand dollars and credit the assessment towards it regardless. So that way I'm still making the same amount of money, but psychologically they feel way better about it because they're like, oh, I'm get…”