The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,218 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Spartz: Automated weapons systems have already taken over lethal decision-making
“There's tons of weapons systems you already have that like, there's no human that decides like the robots decide for us. Like they shoot down the missile before we even have time to react, you know? So we've already given up the Like kill switch to the machine…”
Postma: OpenAI confirmed Headlime was the first live product on its API
“I was one of the first to build a product like that and go live with it. I got a screenshot from OpenAI saying I'm the first developer to actually go live with a product.”
Lavingia: Magnus Carlsen knows how to code
“And I guarantee you, this is true. I guarantee if you talk to Magnus Carlson, he knows how to code. I guarantee you.”
Lavingia: Ships more code than most of his angel portfolio companies
“I can chip more code than most of my portfolio companies, and I'm a technical person that generally only invests in technical teams.”
Huber: BiggerPockets founders raise $50M monthly from their podcast audience
“The guys who started the podcast with BiggerPockets, they are now raising fifty million, about fifty million dollars a month. They're raising from the BiggerPockets audience. Money to buy real estate and then they're syndicating and they're buying tons and ton…”
Austin Rief: MrBeast plans to launch software businesses alongside consumer brands
“I met him a few months ago. And he has plans to build software businesses and other things.”
Dunn: Mood disorders affect approximately one in five entrepreneurs
“Three percent of the general population has some form of mood disorder, most commonly bipolar disorder. We think that index is seven to one in entrepreneurs. So we'd be talking about one in five”
Bloom: Passive DCA into S&P and crypto dramatically beat his active bets
“I actually looked recently at my portfolio and like my five-year returns and the like smart investments I made like things where I thought I had edge or some sort of insight that was going to make it, you know, beat the market have underperformed the dumb doll…”
Pal: Crypto hedge funds hold just $4B compared to $57B in VC
“VC space is crowded with fifty seven billion going in in the last 15 months. Hedge fund space, the entire size of the hedge fund space, four billion. There is, the secondary market in crypto is entirely starved of capital.”
Isenberg: Benedict Evans fell asleep during his 2018 Andreessen Horowitz pitch
“This person was Benedict Evans. Benedict Evans fell asleep. Oh no. During my pitch.”
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Mark Zuckerberg started Facebook to meet women, not for billions, says Kagan
“Like Mark didn't start Facebook. I'm going to be a billionaire. It's like, ah, let me see if I can meet some chicks online. If we're honest. Right. And I worked for him. So I know that stuff.”
Wolfe: Kurion technology removed 99% of radiation at Fukushima
“This thing that was just conceived In our New York office ended up removing 99% of the radiation from the Fukushima disaster, particularly around cesium and strontium”
Bloom: US Government Settled Ross Ulbricht's $193M Restitution Debt via Seized Bitcoin
“The U.S. Government has, like, basically secretly signed a deal with him that this one billion dollar bounty that they have found from a hack of the Silk Road, they are crediting towards his debts to the U.S. Government, and so he has now effectively paid back…”
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Bloom: Twitter's $25B Buyout Debt Carries Massive Interest Obligations
“There's twenty-five billion dollars of debt sitting on the business now, and that debt has interest rates on it that aren't super low. And in an environment where so far the, you know, the baseline rate is rising right now, it's actually going to be a shitload…”
Martocci: Swag roll-up Halo generates $850M without unlocking real tech efficiencies.
“They, there's a company called Halo, they do like eight hundred fifty million, and they just buy all these smaller swag companies, but they don't unlock any sort of real efficiencies or scale dynamics, and they don't use technology, they just aggregate all the…”
Friedberg: Beverage industry generates 500 million tons of CO2 annually
“Consumers on Earth spend
A year.
Okay.
2.3 trillion dollars.
We consume something on the order of a hundred billion plastic, glass, cans, more than a hundred billion.
It's really hard to track all this stuff every year.
Most of which, 95% of which ends u…”
Demirors: Avalanche's growth is driven purely by mercenary yield hunters
“The majority of Avalanche's growth has been driven by people hunting for yield, right? Because they don't give a shit about the platform, they don't care about, like, what it is, they're just looking to maximize the ROI on the time they spend on these things.”
Bloom: Only 2% of Spotify artists earn over $1,000 annually
“Only two percent of Spotify artists are earning more than 1000 dollars a year, and one 10th of one percent.1%, are earning over a hundred K per year.”
Finkelstein: Shopify GMV ranks second behind Amazon in US online retail
“If you pretend we were retailer, we would be the second largest online retailer in America after Amazon.”
Blizzard Nerfing a WoW Warlock Spell Inspired Vitalik to Create Ethereum
“Vitalik the creator of Ethereum he was a warlock in World of Warcraft, and Blizzard nerfing Siphon Life was one of the reasons that he decided to make Ethereum. He was like mad that the centralized group, like had the control to nerf something. So he was like,…”
Isenberg: Aaron Levie and Brian Chesky privately consider Web3 a sham
“You know, and we were talking about this earlier, like Aaron Aaron Levy and Brian Chesky were, are kind of talking about how web three is, you know, basically a sham. That's basically what they're saying.”
Bloom: Alexis Ohanian’s VC firm uses internal software Cerebro to gamify value-add
“Alexis Ohanian has at seven, seven, six, they have this internal proprietary software they built out called Cerebro. I think it's called like Star Trek reference that manages like all of their internal stuff. And one of the portals is this like value add, like…”
Ohanian: Reddit grew yearly for five years despite zero product investment
“Like, Reddit for five years between, I left in 2010, I came back in early, you know, late 14 as exec chair, had Almost no investment by con and asked in the product. The product didn't improve for half a decade, barely stayed online. Okay. There's no business …”
Ohanian: The Serial podcast team was dismissive of their Reddit community
“And I remember reaching out to the team there saying, hey, you all should really engage with this community. Like, this, whether you know it or not, is the most valuable part of your podcast. No offense. And to say that they were dismissive was an understateme…”
Sahil Bloom: Corporate preferred moving vendors charge massive markups on employee relocations
“When we went and got quotes from those preferred providers, it was literally like 25 grand to move cross country. We went and got an outside quote, not a preferred provider, and it was like 10. And so literally those people are just providing you these massive…”
Sam Parr: Residential real estate barely beats inflation, returning 3.5% annually
“I believe the trailing hundred years, homes have grown something like three and a half percent a year, so they barely keep up with inflation, so I think homes are a wonderful place to Store value that keep up with inflation and they cause forced savings, but i…”
Goetz: VCs fund women's career and motherhood startups, but ignore sexuality
“The thing that I saw is that there's a lot of VC-backed businesses around talking to women about their careers. Then there's VC-backed businesses that are like, let's talk to you about motherhood. There aren't that many spaces about your sexuality, right?”
Ross Mike: Astra performance review cut app latency from 800ms to 20–30ms
“I did that for one of my apps and speeds went from 800 milliseconds to literally 20 to 30 milliseconds, right?”
Miller: Building a basic AI workforce puts users in top 0.5%
“Of all AI users, if you look at the percentage of people who are paid AI users, and if you look at the percentage of those who are using things like Codex or Cloud Code, it is minuscule. So already, if you're just trying to be in the top, like, one percent of …”
Miller: Y Combinator's ratio of B2B to B2C startups has skyrocketed
“If you look at the YC splits right now when I was working with YC when I was at AWS compared to now, the ratio of B to B versus B to C has skyrocketed. Like there's just not as many B to C companies in these incubators getting built.”
Schneider: Average LinkedIn CPM is around $22 per thousand impressions
“Like if you were paying for those impressions on platform, for example, on LinkedIn, it's like 22 dollars per thousand impressions is the average, right?”
Schneider: Meta's Andromeda Analyzes Multimodal Creative and Landing Pages
“So Andromeda is Facebook's new like ad algorithm, right? It basically, it decides what ads get shown to what people and how it functions is the AI is basically looking at the ad creative. And it's understanding, okay, like what is in this static ad? What is th…”
Schneider: Facebook account bans stem from API read spam, not agents
“The agent is not the reason it got banned. All right. The reason it got banned is because they violated TOS and they spam the API because they were trying to pull in like, you know, hundreds of millions of rows of data from their Facebook ads account. And that…”
Gannon: Maybe 5% of companies use AI tools beyond ChatGPT
“Maybe five percent of companies are using any AI tool other than ChatGPT.”
Gannon: AI assessment client lifetime value reaches $3,000 to $10,000-plus
“The lifetime value of an AI assessment client ends up being, you know, three, five, 10 K or more.”
Gannon: 50% to 60% of AI assessment clients buy implementation
“Greg, 50, sometimes even 60% of the time, these people want implementation.”
Dan Shipper: Codex Chronicle captures local screenshots for user context
“Like, one of the interesting things about Codex is it has this thing called Chronicle, which is it automatically takes screenshots of your computer and locally turns it into locally turns it into a, Feed that gives it context on who you are and what you're doi…”
George Lampropoulos: WrestleAI made $17K first month while Green made $35
“In that campaign, in the first month, Wrestle AI got around a million views, and in the first month, this app Green, which was like an AI Riz dating assistant, got 1.8 million views. And Wrestle AI in the first month did 17 K, and Green in the first month did …”
Riley Brown: GPT 5.4 one-shotted a Replit clone in 80 minutes
“I've one-shotted, the other day I one-shotted an app like Replit, a vibe coding tool, that spun up sandboxes, and you could vibe code web apps on your phone in one shot. It took an hour and 20 minutes to generate the code, and this was on 5.4.”
Isenberg: Creators gained 100k Instagram followers posting Remotion videos
“I know multiple people who've gone from zero to a 100,000 Instagram followers. By doing re-motion videos.”
Brown: Codex autonomously built and played its own chess game
“And so, in my video, it did this in one prompt. I said, build a chess game, then use browser use to test the game and play yourself until one team wins. And that's what it did in one shot”
Brown: Claude and Codex Subscriptions Provide Thousands in Subsidized Tokens
“Like, in Claude or in Codex is you just save so much money because they're subsidizing, like, you get thousands of dollars of tokens for your a hundred dollar per month or 200 dollar per month plan because you're using their platforms.”
Isenberg: AI Video Tutorials Frequently Edit Out Tooling Glitches and Errors
“Because when you go on YouTube, and you see tutorials about You know, this is insane. This product's insane. And I've, you know, I've been guilty of this too. Sometimes you don't, you know, you don't put this in. You don't put the errors in. This gets edited o…”
Isenberg: Gartner projects AI agents will drive 20% of commerce by 2030
“I saw that Gartner had a research report that said, 20% of commerce will, on the internet by 20 30 will be agents, meaning like agents are buying things.”
Ross Mike: Agent skills load only metadata initially to conserve tokens
“What, when you create a skill.md file, what gets added into the context is actually just the name and the description. Right? The bunch of info doesn't get added. So imagine you have two sentences versus an agent.md that has like a thousand lines that get adde…”