why aren't all 112 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Wolfe: Musk's Twitter bid was a smokescreen to dump Tesla stock
“You know, he has sold eight and a half billion dollars of stock. This was a wonderful way, just like his Twitter poll before to sell stock, to get out of Twitter. Now you could, I mean, sorry to get out of Tesla.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rush: Google counts viral social media backlinks more than website links
“Google, they don't say so, but they do this. I know for sure they look at backlinks from social media. And if there is a good tweet with a lot of views and there is your link there, it's so valuable. And in that particular case, it was like fifth or 50th time …”
Opinion
Bloom: Top Creators Generate More Value for Twitter Than Billionaire Shareholders
“I have contributed more value to Twitter and like probably more innovation to Twitter than some random billionaire that owns a hundred million dollars of Twitter stock, like just full stop. I understand the product probably better. I understand the puts and ta…”
Insight
Krishnan: Twitter Needs Decentralization With Open Protocols and Pluggable Algorithms
“Twitter needs to be decentralized, one, into a protocol so people can use a different client. The second is they can use their algorithms of choice, right?”
Opinion
Isenberg: Building fully autonomous AI employees creates bad businesses
“Most people hear agent and imagine a fully autonomous employee. And that's how you get these demos that you see on Twitter and they don't really work and it ends up being a bad business.”
Insight
Dan Koe: Any idea can succeed using proven tweet structures
“Really any idea has the potential to do very well. Cause you can just pop it into a preexisting structure, or you can take a structure and plug in one of the ideas that you're trying to include in your brand.”
Opinion
Isenberg: Twitter suppresses posts with external links, destroying reach
“Twitter sucks right now. Like, yes, you know, it's, you can get a lot of impressions, but once you put that link in there, your post is going nowhere.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huber: Elon Musk is pushing X toward a TikTok-style all-video model
“Twitter is changing so fast, and I think Elon is, Elon knows what he's doing, and he's chasing engagement, chasing daily active users, and it's going to point him towards a TikTok, Instagram type model. So I'm worried that we're going all video over time on Tw…”
Insight
Isenberg: Founders should dial in messaging organically before running ads
“I don't think you should start with ads though. That's my take. Because I think in order to create ads that are really high, highly performing, you have to have your messaging Pretty dialed. And I think the best way to get your messaging really dialed is to do…”
Opinion
Pogrob: Pure online writing is overrated and unviable for almost all creators
“I think the online writer staple, like that's like kind of a meme now, kind of like on Twitter, I think it's so overdone and overrated for almost everybody. And like, you can't make any money with it and you can't build a real brand and you can't build a real …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lieberman: DTC founder earns $40K monthly from software affiliate Google Doc
“There's an entrepreneur I know, and I don't know if he wants people to know this, so I'm not going to say who it is, who built a popular direct to consumer company, sold this company, and he has found a way, he has manually built his stack. So he created a Goo…”
What-if
Isenberg: An acquirer could have crowdfunded $50M on Twitter to buy Mint
“If you were able to say, I got mint for twenty five million dollars or fifty million dollars
and you went to Twitter, like in other places, like you probably could have raised that money to buy it.”
What-if
Torenberg: David Perell should have taken equity instead of selling courses
“He could have, instead of teaching people how to write, he could have gone to people who either, you know, are big on other platforms or just have really valuable service businesses like you know, financial wealth managers or accountants or lawyers or whatever…”
Insight
Huber: Provocative tweets create value by weeding out misaligned followers
“The people who block me, I think that's also kind of, there's an advantage there. Like I'm weeding out the people who don't get my sense of humor for one thing, take it too personally, politically, totally disagree with me and people that I wouldn't maybe jive…”
Insight
Huber: Building passionate online fans requires taking strong stances
“I think in order to get people to really be a fan, you have to take a stance on something, right? If you're just middle down the road, everybody thinks you're decent and nobody really likes you that much.”
Insight
Spartz: Twitter functions like an organism with its own intentions
“I think that Twitter is like sort of like an organism. It's like a living, breathing thing that has its own sort of consciousness and intentions and identities.”
Insight
Bush: Twitter accounts that mock thread writers play the same engagement game
“Like you look at some of these people on Twitter who have their entire thing on Twitter has become making fun of people writing on Twitter. But all they're doing now is trying to get likes on Twitter the same way the other person is doing. They're just appeali…”
Insight
Huber: Serious business deals require real personal identity over anonymity
“In general, in business, when it comes to people doing deals with you, when it comes to people wanting to get to know you, when it comes to serious opportunity, That all comes when people get to know a person that they can trust, and they can build rapport wit…”
Insight
Huber: Real-world execution drives large Twitter followings
“And like the number one reason why most people have a ton of followers on Twitter is because they're actually doing something interesting and uncomfortable and hard in their real life.”
What-if
Huber: Without his Twitter audience, his net worth would be 90% lower
“If I didn't have Twitter, we would probably own about 10 self-storage facilities right now instead of 61. My net worth would be about 10% of what it is right now.”
Insight
Huber: Top Twitter creators succeed by ignoring nuance and provoking readers
“The people who rise up to the top on Twitter are the ones who know how to write clear and concise copy. They know how to ignore nuance. They know how to piss people off. They know how to write things that make smart people think deeply about something.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Twitter will not be used in its current form by 2030
“I'm going to say no. I think we're going like fractured networks will Spin off my vision is like, maybe Twitter is a protocol, right?”
Opinion
Bloom: Twitter's Ad Stack Underperforms Rivals in Direct Response
“Their ad stack sucks. They serve up really bad ads. There's no signal, really bad conversion. Like it's just a bad ad stack. And so when advertisers are comparing it to like Snapchat, Instagram, you know, TikTok, all the other places they can advertise, it's n…”
Assertion Contradicted
Bloom: Twitter's $25B Buyout Debt Carries Massive Interest Obligations
“There's twenty-five billion dollars of debt sitting on the business now, and that debt has interest rates on it that aren't super low. And in an environment where so far the, you know, the baseline rate is rising right now, it's actually going to be a shitload…”
Insight
Krishnan: Web3 Will Give Social Media Creators Economic Rewards and Governance
“What Web three is doing or could do for Twitter is give, give the people who give value to Twitter two things. One is economics, and the second is governance.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Housel: The biggest economic stories of the next decade are currently unmentioned
“I guarantee you the biggest economic news story over the next 12 months is something that no one on Twitter or anywhere else is talking about. And the biggest story of the next decade is something that no one is talking about.”
Opinion
Demirors: Twitter can never improve its product because it serves shareholders
“Twitter can never improve its product. Because it's a public company with shareholders and Twitter doesn't serve as customers. It serves as shareholders.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Twitter stock will reach $200 with better direct response ads
“The stock is gonna be 200 dollars if you just drive more direct response ads.”
Opinion
Isenberg: Twitter Is Two to Three Features Away From $200B Valuation
“Twitter is just so frustrating for me because I'm like, it's two to three product features away from being like a two hundred billion dollar company.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Be Flat at $43.57 in 2026
“And then, five years from now, I think it's exact, it's exactly where we are today. It's like, 43, 57, or whatever.”
Insight
Schneider: Remixing winning social posts every 90 days reliably drives virality
“If you look at my Twitter, like posts as an example, or even my LinkedIn, it is the exact same thing. Remix every 90 days, like full stop. That is all that's happening. And that, when you get enough information, like a bigger enough corpus, you have, you basic…”
Disclosure
Pigford: Shelved Twitter bookmark AI tool over $50,000 monthly API fee
“There was a Twitter bookmark AI processing thing that like I was building, got real close to finishing it, but then I realized, oh, I'm going to have to spend 50,000 dollars a month for Twitter's API to like actually make this work.”
Insight
Isenberg: Siphon attention by quote-retweeting viral ideas and committing to build them
“You can also quote retweet this and be like, I'm building this. And then all of a sudden, how many views this guy, he just, you know, it's gotten like, all of a sudden you're like siphoning views and then people are following along your story and then they bec…”
Insight
Schneider: Social ad ROAS requires rapid creative testing with broad targeting
“And this is really the game anymore, right? Is having more creative variations that you're testing on a faster cadence and then doing broad targeting to Facebook or to Twitter or TikTok ads, et cetera, because like their algorithms are way better at finding wh…”
Insight
Isenberg: Social media bios should target non-followers in your ICP
“The mistake a lot of people make around Twitter bios or Instagram bios is they focus on people who follow them already, not followers. Sorry, people who follow them already, not non-followers. Your bio is for people who land are not following you, and your goa…”
Insight
Isenberg: Consistency requires 1-2 daily posts on X or weekly on YouTube
“On Twitter, on X, that means you should be posting one to two times per day. On YouTube, that means you should be posting one time per week if you're doing long form. If you're doing short form, that means you're doing three to four times a week.”
Opinion
Isenberg: LinkedIn in 2024 has the easy organic reach of 2020 Twitter
“In twenty-twenty-four LinkedIn is the equivalent of twenty-twenty Twitter. When in twenty-twenty Twitter, I know there's some people like Sean Poorey, Andrew, actually you too, you know, you started going, guys like us started going viral in twenty-twenty-twen…”
Insight
Hudack: Organic distribution requires adopting platform-native communication formats
“If you want to target like techie people, you probably want to do it on Twitter X. If you want to target
Sales people, you probably want to do it on LinkedIn.
You know, like, it just, you know, and there's a format, and there's a way of thinking, and a way of …”
Insight
Isenberg: Fast, thoughtful comments on creators' posts build trust and audience
“What I suggest people do is turn on notification bells for a list of creators that you care about and just be the first, first person to write something thoughtful. Don't write like cool video or great thread on Twitter, right? Like, are you kidding me? Don't …”
Insight
Khan: Users still crave a Path-style intimate social network
“People have been wanting a path like social network for so long because, you know, Twitter is a completely different product today. Facebook is a completely different product.”
Insight
Huber: Twitter scrollers only engage for humor, emotion, or education
“Because in reality, somebody scrolling Twitter, you get an eighth of a second of their attention. You have to realize that like they are selfishly scrolling Twitter being like, what can you do for me? What can you do for me? What can you do for me? Are you goi…”
Insight
Isenberg: 2024 startup playbook validates via content before building software
“How do you build startups in 2024? Step one, tweet about it. If it gets love, create a video about it. If it gets love, create a lead magnet about it. If it gets love, create a private membership slash community about it. If it gets love, create a SaaS slash a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: Scraping Twitter followers yields a 40% to 50% valid email rate
“I've just been running this scraper, scraping emails from like my Twitter followers and then using a validation tool to like, okay, are these real or not? And like the data I'm getting back is like almost like 40 to 50% of them are valid emails, which is insan…”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Venture capitalists dominated early Tech Twitter follower counts, not founders
“That's why people forget, but in tech Twitter, in the beginning, the people who had the most amount of followers weren't entrepreneurs. It was the VCs. Like the Fred Wilson's and, you know, all those guys.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Platform product changes drove Twitter audience growth, not content
“I got a big Twitter audience when
Threat, two things happen.
Threads, the ability to create a thread, you know, they, that was, that wasn't a feature and became a feature on Twitter, and then number two,
The feed was latest and it moved to algorithmic.
So all …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rush: Sponsors can buy 100k views on X for just $300
“Like from my experience, it was like, you can pay 300 dollars and have a hundred K views on the post now on Twitter.”
Disclosure
Schneider: Ran Twitter Ads to Juice Greg Isenberg Episode Views
“I totally juiced the numbers by the way. I was like, just running Twitter ads. I just, I wanted the top spot on the Greg the Greg YouTube channel.”
Insight
Isenberg: Most creators check replies and notice users who write smart comments
“Most people look at their replies, and if you say something that Is smart. Some of these people notice it.”