The Wisdom Wall
11 quotable lessons, heuristics and mental models. Every one is playable at the moment it was said. No fortune cookies allowed.
“So I think if that happens and that's what the world looks like, then a LLM looks kind of like a query processor, uh, in a database. You give it context, it does its work, you get the answer out. But the point of leverage is the place with, at which the context Lives where the data gravity is and how the answer is…”
“If you are in AI or AI adjacent, you should be raising every three to four months, in my opinion, and you should be doing it aggressively.”
“Big tech is doing a good job of anchoring the price of all these features pretty low, like co-pilots, 20 dollars a month per developer. It's incredibly cheap relative to the value that it does add. Uh, and that really anchors, you know, value in that market pretty low, which probably will make it hard for startups to…”
“They're really subsidizing the space, a lot of big tech, which I think is positive for open source and positive for users, hard for startups.”
“Microsoft doesn't care if the margins and foundation models are 80% or 30%. They can't lose that layer, right? Even if it's a commodity, it needs to be a commodity on Azure. Same thing with Amazon. Needs to be a commodity on AWS.”
“Defense primes are good at aeronautics. They're good at explosives. You know, I tend to, I always say, like, they're good at boom. Uh, don't compete on boom. Um, what they're bad at generally is software, is AI, is autonomy.”
“Most of these companies I mentioned that we invested in are started by people who were actually at one of these successful companies, Endural, Palantir, or SpaceX before, or who were in military service themselves, and they know sort of the landscape. It's very rare that someone's a complete outsider and comes in and…”
“This sort of like supervisor worker type paradigm where it's not workflow software, it's supervisor software where you supervise the agents.”
“when A tiny girl or somebody else deploys money onto a cap table. They might say own five percent of that cap table, and they'll have, their dollars will have a leverage effect on the ecosystem as a whole. Because while they buy five percent of the company, they actually work up the other 95% of the, of the cap table.…”
“Incumbents have the advantage. Where in most cases, you are a thin layer on top of open AI and that's okay. And in that case, if you have distribution to users and you, you make that value transparent to them, you already hold their data. That's going to be a great position with you and you'll be able to charge for…”
“And so just the defining feature will be how quickly Google can react versus, you know, mistakes they made at the beginning.”