The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Oltmann: OpenAI is attempting to build its own chip factories
“OpenAI is currently out in the market now trying to actually build their own chip factories and develop their own chips internally, which is a total shift away from historically what software companies have done.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 4:40 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Margin compression will hit public SaaS companies within three years
“In the span of two to three years, I think what we're really going to start to see is this narrative really catch up with publicly traded companies that already have these like massive user bases. so I think it'll be interesting to see what happens over the …”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 8:56 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Hadrian boasts 70% gross margins and top 3% SaaS growth
“Hadrian's got like 70% gross margins and they're growing in the top three percent of all SaaS companies”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 16:13 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: The spike in GPU prices and demand is temporary
“We might see GPU spike in demand, you know, Cause that to increase in price for the time being, but I think that's just a moment in time for right now.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 6:00 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Oltmann: Startups relying on AI as their moat will struggle to IPO
“I doubt that most of these companies will go public. You could see that for any, you know, early stage startup, but I think the AI as the moat businesses are gonna have a really hard time.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 11:18 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Partly held up
Oltmann: VC deployment, late-stage check sizes, and deal volume will surge in H2 2024
“And then the second half of this year I think we're going to see a significant increase in just dollars deployed from venture funds. That's also going to be on, you know, individual check sizes, I think are going to go up again in the later stages. And then al…”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 22:37 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Oltmann: Snowflake Spends More on Sales and Marketing Than on R&D
“Snowflake, where they're spending More in sales and marketing than actually spending in research and development.”
Xander Oltmann Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 7:52 Xander Oltmann, Commodity Capital: Downfall of SaaS & Uprising of Vertically Integrated Monopolies · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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