why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Guo: Passes will reach a billion-dollar valuation just by acquiring creators
“If we're being very blunt, like, I think we will reach, like, a billion dollars doing nothing more except getting new creators, but obviously, like, we have bigger ambitions than that, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Some Passes creators earn $100K monthly posting neck-up selfies
“A lot of our creators will make money literally just doing, like, a neck up selfies, and they're still making, like, a 100,000 a month.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lucy Guo thinks college sports will surpass professional leagues in the future
“And I actually think that in the future, college sports will be bigger than professional leagues.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: Legacy media is disappearing as consumers seek alternative news sources
“Because this is the perception nowadays, I think that legacy media is disappearing and really it is the consumer that's trying to, like, get the real news.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: Future Talent Managers Will Only Earn Cuts on Deals They Source
“I think that, like, in the future it's gonna be, like, whoever brings a deal might get a percentage.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Passes reached multi-millions in revenue after 12 months
“Like, in the multi-millions after our first 12 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lucy Guo: Top Passes Creators Make Nearly $500,000 Monthly
“We have creators make close to half a mil a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Passes Retains Nearly 100% of Creators Earning Over $5,000 Monthly
“Creators that make 5000 dollars a month or more we typically have, like, a hundred percent retention on”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Top-earning Passes creators have 100k to 1M followers, not millions
“What we've actually noticed is that the creators that make the most money on Passes are actually not ones with millions of followers. It's closer to, like, a hundred K to a million followers and they're so random.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: Niche creators like dental hygienists make six figures monthly on Passes
“One of our top creators is a dental hygienist. We have another that, like, lives on a farm and feeds farm animals for a living, and they're making six figures a month.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guo: People offered $10,000 to attend Passes parties
“We've had people offer to pay, like, 10 grand for, to come. And they're not on the guest list.”