The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rangwalla: Anthropic's last round was in the high $300B range
“Anthropix last round was, you know, high 300 of billions.”
Rangwalla: Combined OpenAI and Anthropic ARR Exceeds Salesforce and ServiceNow
“And then when you think about both of them combined, let's say they're close to sixty billion dollars. I mean, that is bigger than ServiceNow, that is bigger than Salesforce, that is bigger than any big name SaaS platform that you would think about. And these …”
Rangwalla: Market Sentiment Has Zero Correlation With Stock Performance
“We did a an analysis on sentiment and how indicative is sentiment of what's actually happening in the market. And it's basically a coin flip. There is no like correlation between negative sentiment means the market should be down or it's contrary”
Adcock: Figure placed the first humanoid robots in White House history
“We got a call asking to be basically the first humanoid group basically ever to put robots in the White House, and so last week we basically had the, you know, first robots in, humanoid robots in history there doing stuff, talking, greeting folks we were basic…”
Adcock: Project Vulcan prevents Figure robots from falling during leg joint failures
“We've been working on a project we call Vulcan here internally. That basically allows us to lose a single or even multiple joints in the legs and still not fall.”
Adcock: Data is Figure's biggest blocker to large-scale humanoid deployment
“The biggest blocker for us now of going from where we're at today to, like large-scale deployment is data. We need, like, an enormous amount of data.”
Adcock: Figure-Assisted BMW X3 Is First Car Built by Humanoid Robot
“This is an X-III that we helped basically like we basically helped, the robot helped assemble it, and this was the first car in the world built by a humanoid robot that we're aware of.”
Adcock: Figure's current humanoid robots cost well under $100,000 each
“So this was like hundreds of thousands of dollars and the robots we have now are like you know, well under a 100,000 dollars each.”
Adcock: Figure reduced robot costs by 90% between Figure 2 and 3
“We reduced the cost by about 90% between these two.”
Adcock: Figure's next-generation hand has as many joints as a human hand
“We recently unveiled our high degree of freedom hand as a teaser, our next generation hand about a month ago. And this hand has basically a human level dexterity, like as many joints in the hand as a human.”
Adcock: NASA JPL tech detects concealed weapons from 20 meters away
“There's a technology that was designed at NASA Jet Propulsion Lab about a decade ago that it can detect weapons underneath clothes and in backpacks and bags from, like 10, 20, you know, five, 10, 20 meters away. And they built it for the Iraq-Afghanistan war t…”
Adcock: Figure 3 faults weekly compared to Figure 1 faulting hourly
“Like we used to run that robot here, figure, figure one, and man, that robot could like run for like an hour and it would like fault. We know all the reasons or it would fall or would like, you know, lose power. And, you know, we moved to figure two. I think w…”
Harrison: China developed $15M to $20M missiles capable of destroying US carriers
“The Chinese have developed missiles that they affectionately refer to as carrier killers, that literally it's, I mean, these still might be fairly expensive missiles, right, these are 15, twenty million dollar missiles, But they can destroy a multi-billion dol…”
Harrison: The DoD represents sub-1% of global R&D spending today
“Today it is sub one percent of global R&D.”
Harrison: Anduril took over Microsoft's $22B IVAS contract for EagleEye
“And then a year ago Microsoft basically admitted defeat to some extent, and the government said, we're going to recompete the contract, and Anduril first as a potential partner to Microsoft, and then eventually took over a twenty-two billion dollar IVAS contra…”
Harrison: Anduril is actively working on subterranean warfare technology
“Like several people are working on that, including Anduril, much to the surprise, I don't know if you have heard this story, but there was a story of Palmer talking about subterranean warfare, and the marketing person at Anduril was there, it was like, to the …”
Bry: Skydio drones respond to 911 calls in most major cities
“Skydio drones are in most major cities responding to nine one calls today at sort of small scale, like maybe part of the city, some fraction of the incidents that they're dealing with.”
Bry: Skydio drones arrive before police 70% to 80% of the time
“I think across our customer base, when people are sending drones, they're getting to the calls roughly like, 70, 80% of the time, they get there first”
Bry: 16 million Americans live within two miles of a Skydio dock
“We did the math on this, I think, sixteen million Americans now live within two miles of one of our docking stations for first response, about five percent of the country”
Taneja: General Catalyst considers its core venture fund the largest seed fund
“At our core, I think of ourselves as the largest seed venture capital fund. Our venture fund is essentially a seed fund.”
Taneja: Customer Value Fund is VC's first investment-grade product
“We have customer value fund, which is the first investment grade rated product in our industry”
O'Shea: Anthropic Achieved a Full Year of Growth in One Quarter
“We were talking about Anthropic and their hypergrowth and how they pretty much reached a year of growth in one quarter.”
Taneja: GC Has Seven Portfolio Companies Working On-Site at Summa Health
“If you go to SUMA today in Akron, Ohio, we have seven of our companies and the perceptive team and our own investment team that's literally there all the time trying to figure out how to take this community hospital that in all odds will go Down the path of be…”
Taneja: General Catalyst was the first firm to write down portfolio 40% during COVID
“So when COVID happened, We were the first firm to go to the LPs, and we wrote down our portfolio by 40% proactively for no other reason than saying this is not real.”
Abraham: Public's incoming account transfers primarily come from legacy incumbent brokerages
“Actually if you look at where people ACAT accounts from, You know, where they like consolidate brokerage accounts from for us. It's Schwab, Fidelity, E-Trade, Vanguard, and then Merrill and Robinhood. So, so we are much more competing with the incumbents than …”
Abraham: Highest-multiple public companies are story stocks with high retail ownership
“If you look at the companies that are trading at the highest revenue multiples, they're all companies that are like story stocks with a high retail ownership.”
Data centers sign power contracts between 20 and 30 cents per kWh
“And if you think about data centers, they're signing contracts as, you know, on the mid range, 20 cents a kilowatt hour, up to 30 cents a kilowatt hour.”
Most US Banks Derive Disproportionate Income From Late Fees
“I never looked in a little while, but majority of American banks derive a disproportionate percentage of their income from late fees”
Younis: Waymo closed trucking because old AV architectures required discrete systems
“Waymo used to be in self-driving trucks, and then they closed that team down because the old way of building self-driving, those are two almost discrete systems. Different sensor placement, you know, different vehicle type was enough To make it actually just d…”
Baszucki: Top 1,000 Roblox developers average $1.3M in earnings
“Our developer creator earned about a billion and a half on the platform, and it goes pretty deep, like top thousand devs are averaging 1.3 million, like real people making a live on living.”
Baszucki: Ketosis shows promise as treatment for bipolar and schizophrenia
“It's part of what our Family Foundation researches is going into ketosis for bipolar and schizophrenia, and we're finding more and more People who tend to have these medical issues. This can be like a partial treatment for them.”
Miller: VCX Portfolio Grew 193% Last Year Versus 25% for QQQ
“So QQQ, which is like an index of public tech, the weighted average growth rate of public tech companies last year was 25% a year. The weighted average growth rate for our portfolio for VCX was 193%.”
Miller: AI eliminated Fundrise's need to hire support staff for new users
“But we used to have 20 people. We used to have to hire one person for every 30,000 new investors, and now we don't.”
Del Buono: Portfolios with 50-70% alternatives incur 3-4% annual look-through fees
“50, 60, 70% alternatives. On a look through basis, your fees are going to be three or four percent a year. So it's a huge headwind. If you can get rid of some of that by having a professional team in house and not always just hiring third party managers that c…”
Del Buono: Custodian Firms Disable Self-Service Features Under RIA Platforms
“When you move under the RA platform, those features are disabled to sort of keep you more locked into that ecosystem.”
Del Buono: Secondary SPV Managers Can Sell Stock Without Investor Approval
“I've seen personally in cases where the stocks that are in the entity are sold by the individual managing the entity. And they don't need to seek approval from the people who invest in it, right?”
Huffman: Reddit IPO'd at $34 after late 2021 private valuation of $61
“So, you know, when we went out it was like, 34 dollars a share was the IPO price. So we went out March, twenty-twenty-four. Our last private round was in end of 21. Share price was 61 dollars. So we went out with a pretty big valuation haircut from our previou…”
Huffman: 40% of conversations on Reddit are commercial
“Like, 40% of the conversations on Reddit are commercial.”
Huffman: Code review, not generation, is Reddit's engineering bottleneck
“Our bottleneck at Reddit right now is actually code review. Because we can produce so much code, but we've got to review it and deploy it.”
Bouaziz: Deel grew ARR from $800M to $1.4B+ in one year
“You can kind of say we grew from around something like 800 to 1.4 plus, right, in the last year.”
Bouaziz: Deel has been profitable for three consecutive years
“Deal has been profitable for the last three years”
Bouaziz: Deel operates fully remotely with 7,000 employees in 120 countries
“Deal is a fully remote company. We have 7000 people across a 120 countries.”
Alex Bouaziz denies fleeing to Dubai, confirming his Tel Aviv residency
“First of all, I'm based in Tel Aviv. I've been based in Tel Aviv for quite a while. I do think Dubai is amazing, and the UAE, and if you haven't been, you should visit. Yeah, I know that, that was not exactly accurate, and maybe one day, the guys at TechCrunch…”
Bouaziz: Deel beat internal forecasts despite negative external PR
“We actually outperform our forecast despite some of the PR that was outside. We outperform our forecast, we beat our numbers, and our customers are happy, and they're with us, and they're growing with us”
Immerman: Flock Safety solves over 2,800 cases daily, 15% of US crime
“Flock solves over 2800 cases every day.
That's 15% of reported crime in America.”
Immerman: Under five public software and fintech companies grow 30%+
“If you were to scan public internet software fintech, there are fewer than five percent, sorry, there are fewer than five companies growing north of 30%.
This year.”