The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,819 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tony Kim: Utility-scale, million-qubit quantum computers will arrive around 2030
“It's very interesting when you look at these long-dated technologies. All roads converge to 2030. It's like quantum computing, utility scale, logically error-corrected, million-qubit quantum computer, twenty-thirty.”
Tony Kim: Chip companies have higher profit margins than software or pharmaceuticals
“They have the highest profitability of any company in the world of the sector is chip companies. They're higher margins than software, pharmaceuticals, industrials, telecom, anything.”
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Friedberg: Wealth taxes will trigger capital flight and unrest without solving problems
“It'll cause people to flee and run around and get away and it'll cause more discontent, but it doesn't solve the policy problems.”
Friedberg predicts Ro Khanna will be HUD Secretary under President AOC
“I think he'll likely end up being secretary of housing and urban development. If AOC is elected president.”
Friedberg: CBO Projects Social Security Runs Out of Money in Five Years
“We have five years till Social Security is bankrupt. That's not my assessment. That's the CBO score. Like, that's what the CBO says is gonna happen. Congressional Budget Office. When you look at how much is going to get paid out and what the pay in rate is, so…”
Friedberg: US billionaires hold $8T of $183T wealth while bottom 50% hold $4T
“And I was surprised that the billionaires had eight trillion dollars of the 183, and the bottom 50% have four trillion. That's a bad statistic. But it's not as crazy as you would think. And even if you make it a fifty million dollar net worth, it's 23 trillion…”
Desai: Hyperscalers are turning away top-50 enterprise customers due to capacity limits
“These hyperscalers, some of them, are running out of capacity, and they're running out of capacity, so this large customer in Texas, speaking to them, they have really good partnership with one of the hyperscalers. They wanted to move more workloads in cloud, …”
Younis: AI Industry Is in an Opulent Bubble and a Pullback Is Coming
“The cost structure that we're currently seeing from whether it's from how much we spend on model training and development to employees to where we're at that phase of the bubble where it's like, you know, like the, all the opulence in the companies is what peo…”
Patel: EU countries block French data centers to protect nuclear power
“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”
Cook: Mobile apps will consolidate to 2-4 agentic AI interfaces
“We're going from a world in which you have 60 to 80 apps to an agentic AI world where you've got a lot fewer than that. Two, three, four apps where everything else plugs in as an API or an MCP.”
Papermaster: Agentic workflows drive CPU-to-GPU ratios to one-to-one
“Now with these agentic workflows, you actually need both. In fact, the ratio of CPU to GPU is becoming like one to one.”
Liang: SambaNova serves 1.5T parameter models on one rack versus 10-20
“And so with sum it over, that minimum quantum is down to one rack. Right, where if you have other, other service providers, you just run, say, a DeepSeq model, which is now one and a half trillion parameters, just to run that, the minimum for some of the other…”
Liang: Agentic AI will drive a wave of mid-sized distributed data centers
“And I think you're going to see this new wave of companies that are doing distributed data centers, right? So these data centers are mid-sized, right? They're mid-sized, and it's going to be even more important as you go into this agentic world”
Liang: Frontier AI models are heading toward 10 trillion parameters
“The new models are heading towards 10 trillion. Even the open source models are already one to two trillion parameter models, and so now you're starting to see these models getting very big because people are looking for accuracy, right?”
Liang predicts data centers will support only three to four AI chips
“As much as these data centers and service providers are heterogeneous, right, they're using different chips, NVIDIA and other chips, it's not going to be a hundred different chips. It might be two or three. Maybe three or four, right? That's as heterogeneous a…”
Liang: Relying on commodity AI models will compress enterprise margins within two years
“If you actually transfer all of those You know, services, that differentiation, to all using the same exact model. That's in the community. Where does the differentiation come from? Right? And so what most companies start to realize, if you just fast forward, …”
Venner: A six-person team with AI can match 175 SpaceX engineers
“I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people, and I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six, because AI,
It drives most of what we're doing, and AI is now starting to enable things we weren't …”
Black: US industrial base cannot meet incoming aerospace and defense demand
“The current U S industrial base cannot keep up with the amount of demand that's going to see.”
Venner: Six AI-assisted engineers can replicate a 175-person SpaceX software team
“I've got a team of six here. I don't really think it's going to scale much more than maybe one or two more people. And I think I'll be able to do exactly what I did at SpaceX with only six because AI drives most of what we're doing and AI is now starting to en…”
Feldman: Cerebras AI inference is 20x faster than competitors
“And we're the fastest, not by a little bit, but by 20 x.”
Feldman: Ending cancer deaths for next generation achievable in 25 years
“Look, I think that we have a chance for our children or the next generation, not only to not die from cancer, but to not know anybody who died from cancer. I think that is a real achievable goal in 25 years.”
Banister: AI will create solo millionaires running zero-employee agentic companies
“I think we're going to see a lot of, maybe not venture scalable businesses, but a lot of newly minted millionaires that are going to figure out how this all works. And they're going to set up a completely agenticized business where there's no, no real employee…”
Banister: Future wars will be fought exclusively with robotics, not humans
“Wars are going to be fought with robotics in the future. There's not going to be humans on the battlefield. There's going to be robots, and there's going to be technology, and battle bots is going to be a thing.”
Banister: Anduril will consolidate market share and become a top defense prime
“I do think that obviously Enduro is gonna consolidate a lot of it and become one of the top defense primes over time.”
Clements: 7x more CFOs are telling developers to increase AI token spending
“We did this survey of developers, and we asked them how many of them had a CFO who was telling them to spend less on Consumption versus more, and we actually found that seven times more companies are being told to, like, let it rip and spin more.”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Mathew: US Financial Markets Will Absorb Multi-Trillion-Dollar Tech IPOs
“And so I think this is just the power of the financial markets in the United States specifically, I think we can absorb it. I think we will. I think you'll see a number of other countries and investors from all over the world and mom and pop, you know, it's no…”
Field: Figma engineers multiply productivity tenfold using specialized AI agent swarms
“We have plenty of people at Figma that are and are getting great results though.
And it's amazing how much we can do there when you have folks that really understand the infrastructure that they're trying to build.
And they go and you know, they're already 10 …”
Randle: Multiple AI inference platforms hold nine-figure startup contracts
“You know, you have you know, these inference platforms that have nine-figure contracts with startups. Like that, you know, there's very rare SaaS companies that have nine-figure contracts with anyone, much less a startup, and now you have a lot of these AI com…”
Randle: Frontier labs will lose premium margins if AI capabilities plateau
“If we do end up, you know, at some point topping out on capabilities sometime in the next few years, and distillation continues I think it's much harder to garner a premium margin if you're a frontier model company, it becomes much harder.”
Armstrong: 80% of Crypto Trading Volume Moved Offshore
“Like most people don't know that 80% of the trading volume went offshore for crypto because of the lack of clarity in the US.”
Armstrong: In 5-10 Years Everyday Financial Services Will Run on Crypto Rails
“I think in five or 10 years, people are going to be using financial services. A lot of it will be running on crypto rails. They won't even really know or care about crypto itself. They just like, oh, this is a cheaper way to send money abroad to my family, or …”
Armstrong: Top AI-enabled engineers at Coinbase ship 100 pull requests weekly
“If the average developer is shipping maybe like eight pull requests a week, the top few engineers are doing like a hundred pull requests a week.”
Armstrong: Coinbase team pods shrunk from 10 people to 1 to 4
“Traditionally, in tech companies, you'd have, like, a team of a pod of 10, right? There'd be, like, one product manager, one designer, eight engineers, something like that, and we're now seeing these teams that are, like, two to four people. In some cases, we'…”
Armstrong: Coinbase operates equivalent of 1,200 full-time AI agents internally
“There's actually about 1200 full-time agents working at Coinbase now. Yeah, we, it's, we try to basically estimate it because, you know, you can spin up an agent for five minutes and shut it down, but if you look at it as, How much time AI agents are working c…”
Armstrong: Coinbase runs crypto's largest institutional business without close rivals
“We also run the largest institutional business in crypto. I actually don't think there's like a close competitor for that, at least not One that comes to mind.”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Pincus: Multi-trillion tech companies will reach $10T to $20T valuations
“I think these two to five trillion dollar companies are going to be 10 to 20 trillion dollar companies or more.”
Slotowicz: High-end private jets are appreciating in value for the first time
“These airplanes, you know, airplanes are equipment, right? They don't go up in value normally, but we're seeing them go up in value for the first time almost ever, especially in the higher end of the market.”
Slotowicz: FBO event landing slots can cost $20,000 to $40,000
“I mean, of course there's Superbowl and there's like all those, and sometimes those can get ridiculous. They could be in the twenties or thirties or 40,000 dollars just for a short slot to drop off or pick up.”
Pereyra: AI Pricing Will Likely Return to Subscription Models From Tokens
“Buying off tokens is insanely complicated. It'll probably at some point go back to something like subscription because it's hard to like forecast these things.”
Pereyra: Token billing will spawn an optimization ecosystem to counter model incentives
“I think you're going to start seeing things like this for token billing, where there's going to become this whole ecosystem of like, how do you optimize around this? Because you kind of have these weird misaligned incentives from the model providers, right? Be…”
Weinberg: Lawyers cannot distinguish synthetic legal docs from human-written ones
“But the thing that happened with like the last generation of coding models is you can actually take sets of documents and create synthetic docs that are so good that the lawyers can't tell the difference between whether they're created, you know, by an actual …”
Weinberg: Every single company will sell intelligence as its core business
“I think every single company is going to sell intelligence. Like that is going to be the core of the company.”
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”