The Ledger
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why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Harvey's monthly token usage grew from 1T in January to 13T
“Our token usage in January was one trillion. Like for the month of January, and this month it'll probably be like 12 or 13 trillion.”
Harvey's DAU/MAU ratio jumped from roughly 36% to 52%
“Our DAU over MAU at the beginning of the year was around like 36%. Right now it's like 51, 52%.”
Fishner-Wolfson: Facebook went public primarily due to 500-shareholder reporting rule
“The major reason why Facebook ended up going public was this 500 shareholder count rule that basically required companies Once they hit a certain shareholder account to publicly report. So it was sort of all the negatives of being a public company with none of…”
O'Shea: Over $240B in 2025 Venture Secondaries Represented 31% of Venture Volume
“The stat was last year, twenty-twenty-five, over two hundred and forty billion was via secondaries. 31% of venture volume was all secondaries.”
Fishner-Wolfson says SpaceX upended aerospace via fixed-price contracts and reusability
“They flipped the business model in the industry because historically it had been cost plus and they had transitioned to a firm Fixed price model. And so a combination of a business model shift and then making, you know, the Falcon nine partially usable fundame…”
Fishner-Wolfson says Starlink became clearly viable and modelable by 2019
“And it was probably 2019 or so when, you know, they launched probably a couple of Starlink satellites, and it was, I think, pretty clear for people who had known them for a long time that, like, they'd figured it out so this was gonna work, and therefore you c…”
Peter Thiel won the early Facebook deal by accepting a 10% stake
“A lot of the reason that he originally did that deal was because most people wanted a much higher ownership percentage, and he was okay getting 10% of the company, which obviously was like clearly the right decision, and all you had to do is sort of adjust you…”
Singerman was the first investor in Oculus
“So I was the first investor in, in Oculus and Oculus was a company that I invested in, not just on the street. I mean, I obviously Brennan Palmer great, but like, I was like, try the actual product and I'm not a product person, but I tried the actual product a…”
Romo: GEO Communications Satellite Market Has Been Flat to Down for 10 Years
“The Geo ComSat market, you just look at the data, it's kind of flat to down in the last 10 years. It's not grown heavily.”
Romo: China is funding five companies to duplicate SpaceX's launch capacity
“China now has consistent access to space, and has a massive program to essentially duplicate our launch capacity. They've got, you know, five different companies trying to be SpaceX over there that they're throwing lots and lots of money at.”
Romo: Space Force budget request has grown to $71 billion
“And this is part of why you see Space Force's budget going from seventeen billion dollars a few years ago to now the request is for seventy one billion dollars.”
Ding: Merge Accelerated Revenue Significantly Without Adding Much Headcount
“Last year we didn't increase headcount that much, but our revenue accelerated pretty significantly. And so it's had, like, meaningful leverage on our business.”
Reses: Yahoo and Alibaba stopped speaking despite Yahoo's 40% stake
“If you remember, there was this dynamic where Carol Bartz had been in this contentious fight with Jack Ma that was widely chronicled, and the two companies stopped talking to each other, even though Yahoo owned 40% of Alibaba.”
Lead Bank reached $280M in revenue and $31M in net income
“Our last year's revenue was about two hundred and eighty million dollars. Yeah. And about thirty one million dollars of net income.”
Del Buono: Secondary SPVs frequently charge 1/10 or 2/20 fees at marked-up valuations
“The other thing, of course, is that people layer in a lot of fees, carry, so it's not unusual to see one in 10, two in 20 type structures, or a five percent transaction fee, and often it's not done at the last round. It's done a significant, you know, increase…”
Taxable investors can immediately depreciate 100% of data center capital expenditures
“The beauty of the recent tax changes is that for a taxable investor you have accelerated depreciation on data centers, so you can depreciate a hundred percent of your capex immediately and get a huge tax benefit. So there's some tailwinds to the sector because…”
Del Buono: Standard Funds Skip Tax Structuring Due to Non-Taxable Clients
“A lot of the standard funds out there don't do the structuring because most of their clients are not taxable.”
Tandon: General Catalyst CVF Risks Customer Cohorts, Not the Balance Sheet
“Instead of risking against balance sheet, it's risk against forward-looking customer cohorts and performance. So if you're confident that your SaaS cohorts will perform and revenue will show up, and when you put in go-to-market dollars, net new logos will show…”
Tandon: Commure generates hundreds of millions in annual revenue
“We're in the hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.”
Tandon: Full Commure Platform Boosts Provider Revenue 15-20%
“And there's no question that when you deploy the full Kumira Thales platform, you get 15, 20% more revenue at the other end of it because everything is connected.”
Tandon: Commure acquired public company Augmedix at 1.5x revenue
“We've also acquired some businesses like Augmetics that was, you know, a public company, and it was particularly done for distribution. They were, you know, in 40 different health systems and trading at like, 1.5 x revenue.”
Rangwalla: OpenAI Reached Almost 1B Users Fastest in History
“How OpenAI reached, you know, almost a billion users in the fastest time in history.”
Rangwalla: US new business formation is near record highs
“Even today, people don't talk about it, but we're actually at one of the highest new business formations that we've ever been at.”
Rangwalla: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta multiples compressed as capex grew
“And so if you look at the multiples of Microsoft, of Amazon, of Meta, they've actually all compressed in the last couple of years because their capex is going up.”
Rangwalla: S&P 500 Earnings Growth Accelerates to 18% Through 2026
“The S&P, 500 earnings growth through 26 is like 15% accelerating to 18%.”
Rangwalla: Stock Multiples Remain Consistent Because Earnings Growth Outpaces Prices
“The multiples for the market actually haven't gone up that much. The multiples for the market are actually staying kind of consistent because the growth is so high. And so the market is up, you know, whatever, seven, eight percent this year, but earnings growt…”
Four-person AWS team beat IBM and Microsoft for landmark CIA contract
“We, I had a team of four people, that was it, and we did one outside contractor that helped us, And other teams, IBM, Microsoft, others that bidded, had these huge teams bidding this thing, and they kept saying, you guys can't win it.”
Early AWS account executives only earned commissions after customers consumed cloud services
“They had to have a spirit of more consultative account management and sales. They had to delight the customer. They had to love that customer's Mission and had to go in because they wouldn't get anything on top of their salary until the customer started using …”
Teresa Carlson grew AWS public sector revenue to $10B in ten years
“We got started, my business, we build it from about zero to ten billion in the federal side or the government side globally in 10 years, so that went really fast.”
Khosrowshahi: Uber One subscription has reached nearly 50 million members
“You know, we got almost fifty million members.”
Khosrowshahi: Developers using Claude and Codex see increased diff counts
“Our developers are all using Claude and actually Codex is pretty cool as well. And developing, we're seeing the number of diffs per developer go, go up. We've seen the number of lines per diff go up as well, so there's a lot of input going in, and there's a lo…”
Adcock: Figure humanoid robots charge wirelessly at 2 kW with 5-hour runtime
“The robots can charge through their feet at two kilowatts. So basically, like the battery lasts about four to five hours, then we can charge basically for an hour and go back and do work again.”
Adcock: Figure runs onboard neural network inference hundreds of times per second
“And we have to do that like a few hundred times a second from camera images and on a neural network that runs on board the robot.”
Adcock: Figure's robot hardware is robust; most failures are software and AI
“We're at a point where the hardware's gotten, like, pretty, like, almost, like, very robust. Like, the, we can run them all day, every day, like we still, we see, we still see, like, hardware failures, but It's very few and far between. Most of our problems no…”
Adcock: Figure robots run Helix AI inference onboard without network connectivity
“We run Helix on board. So they're actually loaded into GPUs on board and memory, and we run inference on board. Meaning if we if we lose internet connection, we can still do housework and logistics.”
Adcock: Figure Deployed Robots for Six Months on BMW Body Shop Line
“We work at BMW, and last year we deployed for six months robots on the basically body shop factory line to build cars.”
Adcock: Figure got its first robot walking within a year
“We have our figure one robot. It's kind of gnarly. It's got wires everywhere. It's our first generation. We had that walking before we were a year old, and we think it's probably one of the fastest times in human history.”
Adcock: Tendon-driven robotic hand was the wrong engineering choice for Figure
“And it ended up becoming ended up becoming like the wrong engineering choice.
And we ended up pivoting away from it really early.”
Harrison: F-35 Program Costs Could Reach $1T Versus Projected $13B–$15B
“And like you have projects that should have cost 13, fifteen billion dollars that are upwards could cost a trillion dollars, like the F-thirty-five program, right? It's like dramatic overages.”
Harrison: Ukraine is live testing and fielding military tech faster than the US or China
“Ukraine was like the military industrial complex in production where it's like they're live testing stuff. Way more rapidly, even than, like, even the US at its best, even China or wherever. In Ukraine, it's just, we try something and we immediately field it, …”
Harrison: Anduril risks private capital on internal R&D instead of government funds
“Where the military, you know, where the military is trying to acquire things built to spec, the goal of Anduril is to acquire things built to mission, right, so they fund their own R&D, they put their own money up, rather than asking the government for R&D dol…”
Harrison: Anduril has had products deployed in Ukraine since day one
“Palmer says that Anduril has had products on the ground in Ukraine basically since day one. They were over there pretty quickly, you know, deploying assets and stuff like that.”
Harrison: 12 of 16 Thucydides Trap historical cases led to war
“Any time a rising power threatens a established power, it ends in large conflict, great power conflict, and when you look throughout history, there are 16 instances where that happened. Of those 16, 12 of them resulted in mass scale conflict”
Adam Bry: Skydio's dock drones operate 24/7 without a human pilot.
“The new way is the drones live in these network connected charging base stations. We call them docks. And they're just available to fly 24 seven. So these things are flying themselves fully autonomously. There's no person in the loop.”
Adam Bry: US public safety customers launch Skydio drones every 30 seconds.
“So, on average now, in public safety, our customers are flying once every 30 seconds”
Bry: Skydio F10 fixed-wing drone reaches 100 mph and uses robotic arm docking
“So this is called F-Ten. It's reusing a lot of the same core technology blocks from X-Ten and R-Ten, but it's in a fixed wing form factor that can fly a hundred miles an hour in a couple hours of flight time, and it is launched and caught by a robotic arm.”