The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Harrison: Anduril took over Microsoft's $22B IVAS contract for EagleEye
“And then a year ago Microsoft basically admitted defeat to some extent, and the government said, we're going to recompete the contract, and Anduril first as a potential partner to Microsoft, and then eventually took over a twenty-two billion dollar IVAS contra…”
Laffont: Microsoft lost nearly $1T in value over AI positioning concerns
“Microsoft, as an example, I think has lost almost a trillion dollars of value over that timeframe as people are questioning their positioning kind of in AI.”
Siddharth: Turing works with seven of the eight frontier AI labs
“We work with seven out of the eight Frontier Labs. We work with OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, anybody that's building a Frontier Foundation model, we are probably working with them already.”
Tunguz: Microsoft projects compute constraints and aggressive GPU buying through 2025
“Microsoft is still compute constrained. And they project, I think, all the way through twenty-twenty-five, they'll still be needing to buy GPUs aggressively because it just cannot serve service all of the demand.”
Cloud giants must host foundation models even if they become low-margin commodities
“Microsoft doesn't care if the margins and foundation models are 80% or 30%. They can't lose that layer, right? Even if it's a commodity, it needs to be a commodity on Azure. Same thing with Amazon. Needs to be a commodity on AWS.”
Asparouhov: Khosla is the only equity owner in OpenAI besides Microsoft
“Mattershund being the largest, you know, sort of investor
You know, in SpaceX, Coastal Ventures being the largest investor in Rocket Lab, and then in some ways more recently, you know, the only equity owner in OpenAI other than Microsoft.”
Rangwalla: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta multiples compressed as capex grew
“And so if you look at the multiples of Microsoft, of Amazon, of Meta, they've actually all compressed in the last couple of years because their capex is going up.”
Four-person AWS team beat IBM and Microsoft for landmark CIA contract
“We, I had a team of four people, that was it, and we did one outside contractor that helped us, And other teams, IBM, Microsoft, others that bidded, had these huge teams bidding this thing, and they kept saying, you guys can't win it.”
Shadbolt: The public never cares about supercomputers, only their output
“People have been building leadership class supercomputers for a very long time, and usually people don't care about them, and that's fine. Like nobody cared prior to GPT-III. Nobody cared that Azure and Microsoft and open AI were building big, ugly computers. …”
O'Shea: AppLovin Vastly Outpaces Microsoft in Revenue Per Employee
“Applovin's revenue per employee is, like, huge delta between Microsoft. Microsoft is kind of, like, flatlined a little bit, but, like, that, that is, like, a true trend we're seeing.”
Ritter: Voice and Hardware Modalities Will Open Whole New Software Categories Like Mobile
“And I think one of the things we believe is there's going to be a whole new, if the mobile device was something that opened up a whole new category of software for mobile devices, we've got devices companies like Bland that may open it up for voice in unique n…”
Tunguz: Microsoft, Google, and Meta each deploying $70B–$80B CapEx in 2025
“You have like Microsoft and Google and Meta each deploying something like 70 to eighty billion in capital expenditure, just buying GPUs and building data centers in just next year.”
Housel: Microsoft would not exist without Gates attending a computer-equipped high school
“Bill Gates went to the only high school in America that had a computer by his own saying there would be no Microsoft if he didn't happen to go to this one specific school.”
Mathew: Accel bought Facebook secondary shares around a $20B valuation
“We, so we initially invested in Facebook in 2005. We led the series A out of our early stage fund, and we created this growth vehicle in 2008. Miles and I joined in 2008 and 2009, and one of the first opportunities was to buy some Facebook secondary that came …”
Armada CEO: Armada deployed first modular data center in Saudi desert
“We were the first modular data center ever to be deployed in the middle of the summer in the desert in Saudi Arabia with Aramco working with Microsoft.”
Grimm: Anduril acquired the IVAS program from a Microsoft spin-out
“So like the whole notion of the IVAS program that we acquired from the Microsoft spin out. It's now called I don't know what they called it now.”
Barton: AI Infrastructure and Energy Stocks Outperform Mega-Cap AI Winners Like Microsoft and Meta
“AI infrastructure, right? Like the build out of AI, the data centers, the constellation energy, the nuclear, the power needed to, You know, power these GPUs. Those stocks are up, like, 50. And then you would say, you know, well, Microsoft's, like, probably an …”
O'Shea: Turing Reaches $300M+ Revenue and $2.2B Valuation Profitably
“Three hundred million plus in revenue and profitable. Two hundred and twenty-five million in funding at a last valuation of 2.2 billion. A network of four million engineers and customers that include OpenAI, NVIDIA, Anthropoc, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Salesfor…”
Azure cloud customers can spend their Microsoft credits on Armada products
“We have a partnership with them where we're going to market together. You know, Azure customers can use their credits on any of our products, which is really nice for the customers and all of the products kind of work really, really well together.”