why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
Prediction Held up
Klein predicts federal AI regulation focused on deepfakes will pass in 2025
“I think there will be some sort of regulation, right? Like, especially around like deep fakes or, you know, video, like it feels like you, if you use AI generated video to, you know, cause pain or harm or reputational harm to someone is that standalone AI regu…”
Assertion Contradicted
Mansoor: Kalshi captured 7% of sports handle in its launch week
“I mean, I think we got like something like seven percent of the handle within seven days of launch which is huge. Like it's a testament to how big this could be. And I think we were fourth in handle.”
Prediction Held up
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kalshi called the US election outcome before national media outlets
“They called it before all of the other national media outlets.”
Prediction Held up
SpaceX will complete more than 160 rocket launches in 2025
“I think it will for sure be above one 50, but given those options, above one 60, maybe even one 70.”
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: PJ's viral AI video for Kalshi reached over 100M people
“I was talking to PJ, who creates all those, like, extremely viral AI videos. They did one for Kalshi. It reached, like, over a hundred million people.”
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: Kalshi is valued at $2 billion
“Two billion dollar valuation now.”
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi has raised nearly $110M from Sequoia, Schwab, and Kravis
“It's raised close to 110. We, I mean, the main investor, Sequoia, YC Schwab Kravis and I mean, a bunch of others.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mansour: Kalshi grew from 100 to 1,000 active markets
“Like we had a hundred markets back in in September, we have a thousand now.”
Assertion Supported
Kalshi announces brokerage integration with Webull as second partner
“We actually announced our second broker, Webull, this week, two days ago.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mansoor: Ancillary prop markets drove 30% of Kalshi's Super Bowl volume
“There were all these markets that were like, not exactly about the outcome, but like, Related to... Around it. They're like, we're extremely, like, they ended up being something like, 30% of the whole, like, pie.”
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi acts as a Self-Regulatory Organization with an investigation department
“We are an SRO. Like we are, think of it as like a pseudo extension of government where we have our own set of rules and laws. So we have a whole investigation department. We actually have to do that by law. Like if I don't do this, I'm violating the law.”