The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Gil: Parker Conrad and Palmer Luckey were unfairly thrown under the bus
“Palmer Luckey is another one where I backed Andrew in the very first round, and he was controversial given what happened at Meta early on with him. I think in both cases, they basically got thrown under the bus in one form or another.”
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”
Barton: Marketing spend will shift from Meta to AI agents and Shopify
“So that 20% that I'm spending on marketing to, you know, maybe it was meta, is now gonna, like, that profit pool is gonna be more going toward a Shopify or the actual agent players themselves, OpenAI or Gemini.”
Barton predicts Meta will 3x in market cap in five years
“Like, I think Facebook is going to be, you know, a three X in five years.”
Agrawal: OpenAI's Consumer Business Could Reach $200B in Annual Revenue
“We think over time,
The number of users could go up to three to four billion users. We think on the monetization side, over time, it could go from 10 today to 60, 70 dollars per user per year, which is where Meta and Google and other large consumer platforms a…”
Mark Zuckerberg is the greatest M&A CEO in public market tech history
“Mark Zuckerberg is the best. I'll go on record to say the best public market CEO at M&A in tech ever.”
Kim: Generational tech giants often start with controversial or questionable use cases
“Ultimately, we want to back companies that become generational and become very, very large. And a lot of the origin story of companies can be questioned when looked back in from the history or from sort of current looking back, like Facebook started was hard o…”
Kolicich: Big Tech Subsidizing Open Source AI Is Hard for Startups
“They're really subsidizing the space, a lot of big tech, which I think is positive for open source and positive for users, hard for startups.”
Mignano: Earlier-stage AI startups should IPO to capture retail investor demand
“Maybe more AI companies should be going public because there's clearly a lot of demand for it. And if you're a public market, you know, if you're a public investor, a public market investor, a retail investor, you don't really have a lot of choices, right? You…”
Barton: Meta GPU recommendation upgrades drove a 15% Instagram usage jump
“And if you look at Instagram time spent, basically it was flat for, I don't know, maybe 18 months to six months ago. And now, you know, you would spend 40 minutes a day, and now that's gone up like 15% in just the past six months, because they basically took t…”
Siddharth: Turing works with seven of the eight frontier AI labs
“We work with seven out of the eight Frontier Labs. We work with OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, anybody that's building a Frontier Foundation model, we are probably working with them already.”
Coogan: Big Tobacco quality has degraded as top talent chooses tech
“They are not well run. They are not hiring the best people, really, really sharp people. They go to work at SpaceX and Meta. They are not going to big tobacco anymore. And so the quality of the companies has really, really degraded.”
Clements: OpenAI and Anthropic parallel Facebook's platform era
“The thing that still kind of inspires us, you know, through the Facebook parallel was, it was like the first platform company that we saw. So all the companies As associates that we were building relationships with, we're figuring out how they could like build…”
Peter Thiel won the early Facebook deal by accepting a 10% stake
“A lot of the reason that he originally did that deal was because most people wanted a much higher ownership percentage, and he was okay getting 10% of the company, which obviously was like clearly the right decision, and all you had to do is sort of adjust you…”
Fishner-Wolfson: Facebook went public primarily due to 500-shareholder reporting rule
“The major reason why Facebook ended up going public was this 500 shareholder count rule that basically required companies Once they hit a certain shareholder account to publicly report. So it was sort of all the negatives of being a public company with none of…”
Rangwalla: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta multiples compressed as capex grew
“And so if you look at the multiples of Microsoft, of Amazon, of Meta, they've actually all compressed in the last couple of years because their capex is going up.”
Immerman: Meta, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, and Revolut build on ElevenLabs
“Fast forward to today, the enterprise business has customers like Meta and Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom. They announced Revolut last week. These are massive companies that are building agents on top of their platform.”
Clark: OpenAI will endure in the near term like Meta or Google
“I think the beauty is one, hopefully open AI is going to be an enduring technology. And so I'd be very surprised if in the near term we were talking about an after open AI, you know, is there an after meta or an after Google?”
Agrawal: Meta Generates Double OpenAI's $40B Funding in Annual Operating Cash Flow
“To put that in perspective, OpenAI just raised this massive round, forty billion dollars, and Meta is producing more than twice that in a year.”
Altman: Tech will see more acquisitions and high-value talent acqui-hires
“I just think, you know, and some of these acquisitions are for talent. And, you know, people paying whatever it takes to get the people that they think can unlock. You know, if you think that if you're meta and you think another trillion dollars can be unlocke…”
Tunguz: Microsoft, Google, and Meta each deploying $70B–$80B CapEx in 2025
“You have like Microsoft and Google and Meta each deploying something like 70 to eighty billion in capital expenditure, just buying GPUs and building data centers in just next year.”
Mathew: Accel modeled Facebook secondary investment at 5X upside
“And so I remember that partner meeting around the table saying, we actually think this could be a hundred billion dollar business or more that we could generate north of a five X. Lo and behold, that was way under shooting what the opportunity and the potentia…”
Mathew: Accel bought Facebook secondary shares around a $20B valuation
“We, so we initially invested in Facebook in 2005. We led the series A out of our early stage fund, and we created this growth vehicle in 2008. Miles and I joined in 2008 and 2009, and one of the first opportunities was to buy some Facebook secondary that came …”
Alex Bouaziz praises Instacart CEO Fiji Simo as a top tech executive
“Fiji is like it's like the person I, one of the person I look up to the most, right? Whether it's her still at Meta, whether it's her leading Instacart for, like, very rough time, whether it's her not open AI and kind of, like, figuring out the business life. …”
Barton: AI Infrastructure and Energy Stocks Outperform Mega-Cap AI Winners Like Microsoft and Meta
“AI infrastructure, right? Like the build out of AI, the data centers, the constellation energy, the nuclear, the power needed to, You know, power these GPUs. Those stocks are up, like, 50. And then you would say, you know, well, Microsoft's, like, probably an …”
O'Shea: Turing Reaches $300M+ Revenue and $2.2B Valuation Profitably
“Three hundred million plus in revenue and profitable. Two hundred and twenty-five million in funding at a last valuation of 2.2 billion. A network of four million engineers and customers that include OpenAI, NVIDIA, Anthropoc, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Salesfor…”
Vasavada: Vise scaled to around 150 employees before downsizing
“So we actually scaled the company to like a 150 people or something. It was way more than 70 people, but we hired a lot of managers, like senior executives, people that had come from companies like Meta or Dropbox or others where they'd been used to having 102…”