why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Belsky: AI productivity gains will increase creative hiring, not decrease it
“And I believe that actually, when you get more ingenuity per person that you employ, the people on your creative team, when you get more possibility from each of them, you're gonna actually want to hire more of them. Look no further than engineers. Engineers h…”
Insight
Belsky: AI hallucination is a feature, not a bug, for creativity
“In the chat world, people say that hallucination is the bug, but in our world, the hallucination is actually the feature because the AI needs to be very creative in supporting, suggesting all the variations of possibilities”
Opinion
Belsky: Generative AI is eliminating mechanical labor in professional workflows
“And then you look at the impact of something like generative AI, and you're realizing that the work part of workflow is being reduced, you know, and in some cases even eliminated.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Career advancement will hinge on creativity over raw productivity
“And so the big shift here that I just want to, you know, put a capstone on wave number one is that the standout, the success, the promotion is increasingly going from this advantage, this competitive advantage on the productivity side to one that's more around…”
Insight
Belsky: Generative AI restores adult creative confidence by removing skill barriers
“The ability to take something that's in your mind's eye and instantly generate imagery without any skills required actually starts to restore some of that creative confidence later in life.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Adobe enterprise customers shifted >50% of marketing spend to social
“You look at big company marketing budgets and a lot of our customers have shifted at least if not more than 50% of their marketing spend. Towards social platforms away from a world where everything was destined for video or TV or print or whatever to this new …”
Insight
Belsky: Generative AI lowers creative skill floors while raising output ceilings
“It is lowering the bar for the minimum skills required to get into this box, which is a lot of new people coming into the funnel, right, for any creative product, and it's also raising the ceiling, right, of what's possible within the given time that you actua…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Users will converse with documents instead of reading them
“I believe our documents are going to want to talk to us as opposed to us reading through and trying to find things. The documents will say, what do you want to know about me? And you'll just have a conversation.”
Assertion Partly supported
Belsky: Carvana generated 1.5 million hyper-personalized customer videos using AI
“This is an example of Carvana. They did an experiment where they made 1.5 million hyper personalized videos for their customers based on the actual car that the customer purchased, the color of the car that they purchased it in, and the hometown that they purc…”